So, we know that it started in Kansas City, then moved to Austin, then Provo and now Google Fiber has targeted nine more metro areas. That possibility is beginning to look more like a reality with Google recently signing a tentative franchise agreement with the city of Portland. That makes Portland the first of those nine metro areas to take the next steps toward becoming a Google Fiber city.
So, how is Google choosing these cities? Are they picking the cities who merely want it the most, or are the most prepared? According to Charlotte CIO Jeff Stovall, his city didn't really have major plans for fiber before they were approached by Google.
Google Fiber customers can stop by to get any questions answered or swap devices.
Image: Google
"It appears to me the cities that are chosen are ones that have high growth potential and are still small enough, in some respects, to be able to put in this type of infrastructure versus a mega-city like New York City," Stovall said.
We know Google is hiring for the Fiber team, with more than 60 open listings for positions such as "network infrastructure design manager." Although the listing was open in the Empire State, New Yorkers probably won't be getting Fiber anytime soon. Here are the five parameters that Google is using to determine which cities will get Google Fiber:
1. Existing fiber network - Google wants wants to move quickly and do it as cheaply as possible so it is leveragingdark fiber and existing fiber networks like the one in Provo. So far, Google has only moved to take over existing buried networks, so there is a possibility that they will install Fiber in cities that have utility poles (like Charlotte), mainly because of the massive price difference of hanging vs. buried cable.
2. Close to a Google data center - Google operates data centers internationally to support their products. More fiber running to and from the Google data centers means that it can process requests faster and glean data more efficiently. Proximity to a Google data center is key.
3. Population size range - At least in the beginning, Google will be targeting cities that are big enough to be diverse, but small enough that it will be able to avoid the oversight of cities like San Francisco, Boston, and New York City. Again, speed matters.
4. Willing local government - Permitting is, perhaps, one of the biggest obstacles that Google will have to overcome in its quest to rapidly build out Google Fiber cities. All of the city officials we have talked to said that they were very eager to work with Google, and some were working to expedite the permitting process to show their dedication to bringing Fiber to their city. So, local government cooperation is huge.
5. Not in a Verizon FiOS coverage zone - Verizon is the biggest competitor Google Fiber has at this point. FiOS consistently takes top ratings in customer satisfaction as an ISP. It would be foolish of Google to try to take on FiOS this early in the game, however, they don't seem to have a problem taking shots at AT&T, as evidenced by their brazen move into Austin.
"I think you want an underserved community that can be served economically. That might mean it has enough backbone capacity, or some way to provide that capacity, without costing a huge amount of money," said Jeff Hecht, author of Understanding Fiber Optics.
That's why Google is targeting existing fiber networks. It saves the company time and money and it is proof that the city is interested. Provo, Portland, Phoenix, Chapel Hill, Nashville, Salt Lake City, Atlanta, San Antonio, and San Jose all have either existing fiber optic networks, or unused "dark fiber" that has been installed, but isn't currently in use.
"I believe these cities are not too big, they are not too small, they are not too rich, they are not too poor. They have the possibility to dig up the roads without causing major havoc like in downtown Manhattan, but there is purchasing power," said Dan Dieler, a principal analyst at Forrester Research.
These cities have enough resources to make good use of the Google Fiber product, without have an overbearing bureaucracy that could slow down the plan. According to Heather Burnett Gold, the president of Fiber to the Home Council in the Americas, Google is looking for cities with a committed city leadership in place who are "champions for fiber deployment," to help with things like expedited permitting, non-onerous franchise fees, access to any common ducts pole or right of way, and demand aggregation. Google is looking for cities that share their vision.
"I think Provo and Google shared a common vision about access to the Internet at home; the value to education, entrepreneurship, families and governance are all enhanced by nearly ubiquitous access and the availability of high speed said Provo chief administrative officer Wayne Parker.
The next 10 Fiber cities
Based on these five measurements from our investigation, here are 10 metro areas that we believe could be next on the list for Google Fiber:
1. Charleston, South Carolina - According to research done by others, there is a Google data center located in Goose Creek, South Carolina, which is a little over 17 miles outside of Charleston, and considered part of the Charleston Metro area. Moving into South Carolina would also offer Google the opportunity to continue its expansion into the Southeast, slowing Verizon's entry into that region. That same research points to evidence that North Carolina and South Carolina have provided tax incentives to Google in the past, proving their willingness to work with the search giant. Plus, fiber initiatives are already happening in the area, so we know there is existing fiber and a desire for gigabit internet.
2. Miami, Florida - At present, Miami is the one of the most fiber-connected cities in the US. Verizon has cornered St. Petersburg and Sarasota, so stepping into Miami would help to sweat them a little, provided that pressuring incumbents is their overall plan. Combine that with the fact that AT&T has announced that they are planning to enter Miami and the fact that Google already has a data center there and it is a no-brainer. The demographic diversity is an added plus for Google to collect user data.
3. Houston, Texas - Texas is an important state in the geographic battle for fiber because it is a strategic link between the Southeast and the West. Google has an existing data center in Houston, and it is close enough to Austin (existing Fiber city) and San Antonio (proposed Fiber city) to glean support from those areas. It is also a proposed AT&T fiber area, and close enough to Dallas and Fort Worth (both Verizon FiOS cities) to pressure the incumbents.
4. Seattle, Washington - Seattle is almost exactly what we believe Google is looking for. Google has a data center there and it is close in distance and demographics to Portland, the most recent city to take a step toward Fiber. By getting to both Seattle and Portland, Google will effectively corner the Pacific Northwest and position itself for an easier entry into Northern California. Seattle's cost of living and focus on creative endeavors show that they have the resources and the desire to engage new technology.
5. Tulsa, Oklahoma - Tulsa is a mere 45 minute drive from Google's data center in Pryor, Oklahoma. The city is home to the University of Tulsa, a private university with about 4,000 students. Verizon and AT&T have both avoided the central US, which is where Google got its start with Fiber. This gives Google a chance to draw a line in the sand and capture some of the top cities of the Great Plains region.
6. Cincinnati, Ohio - Cincinnati is one of the top 25 metros in the US with the most existing fiber. Cincinnati's population size and the presence of the University of Cincinnati offer an excellent sample population. Ohio already appears eager to get involved with the search giant, hosting a Google in Education Conference in Columbus in May of last year, sponsored by ITIP Ohio.
7. Chicago, Illinois - While this might not seem to fall in line with what the five parameters, Chicago, and its surrounding suburbs, are a testing ground for Google to enter a major city. Google does have a data center in Chicago, and the city is third most fiber-connected city in the country. Chicago's plethora of research universities adds to the potential for interesting Fiber experiments. The city's numerous suburbs could be a good starting point for Google Fiber, which can then slowly move toward the city center, if it is ever able to get the approval of the local government.
8. Minneapolis, Minnesota - Minneapolis, which is one of the most fiber-connected cities in the US, does not actually house a Google data center; but it would more than likely initially run as a support hub for the Chicago deployment. Google for Entrepreneurs has been known to sponsor events at the city's CoCo coworking space, and has named the city one of its tech hubs. If Google did decide to build a data center in the Twin Cities, thedefunct Ford plant offers the perfect real estate, complete with a hydroelectric dam to win them green points. The city is known as the primary business hub in the US between Chicago and Seattle, and houses a huge number of Fortune 500 companies, such as UnitedHealth Group, Target, Best Buy, and US Bancorp. The city regularly lands on top quality of life lists and was named a "Top Tech City" by Popular Science in 2005.
9. San Diego, California - California is Google's home turf, and they are already targeting San Jose for one of their next Fiber deployments. They have a data center in Los Angeles, but Verizon has already deployed FiOS there. San Diego is the proxy Google needs to continue rolling out Fiber in California, without attacking FiOS head-on. San Diego is also a good way for Google to test the waters with the California government to see how far they can go in SoCal.
10. Denver, Colorado - Denver is another one of the most fiber-connected cities and while it doesn't have a Google data center, but it does have a connection to Google. The Google for Entrepreneurs program recently chose Denver's Galvanize startup building to be part of their network of tech hubs. Denver is a midpoint between the Midwest and the West Coast, and the Denver Technological Center is home to many large tech companies that compliment the startup scene.
Additionally, here are five metro areas to watch as Google Fiber continues its rollout. They don't meet all of our criteria, but they each offer Google a strategic advantage.
1. Virginia Beach, Virginia - While Google does have a data center in Virginia Beach, Verizon has deployed in the Virginia cities of Richmond, Petersburg, Norfolk, and Newport News; leaving Google a pawn surrounded by Queens.
2. St. Louis, Missouri - St. Louis is highly fiber-connected city, and it would provide a bridge from Chicago to Kansas City and Tulsa.
3. Columbia, South Carolina - If Google doesn't move on Charleston, they will more than likely deploy in Columbia. Google purchased nearly 500 acres in Blythewood, South Carolina, right outside of Columbia, for the construction of a data center. Columbia is also the home of the University of South Carolina.
4. Baltimore, Maryland - Baltimore would allow Google to dip its toe in the water of the Northeast, while getting them close enough to Washington, DC, which is an existing FiOS city, to put pressure on Verizon.
5. Detroit, Michigan - This may seem a little more contrived, but Detroit is one of the most fiber-connected cities in the US and is an emerging tech center. In a show of good faith, Google could deploy Fiber in Detroit to assist in a much-needed revival of the economy in the Motor City. It's also home to a Google for Entrepreneurs tech hub.
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