tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12846695669800013692024-03-05T10:05:36.357-08:00Economía Global - Global EconomicsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger428125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-6777758115496158602016-08-02T10:03:00.001-07:002016-08-02T10:03:17.017-07:00Musk’s SolarCity Offer Wipes Out His Cousins’ Stock Options<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<li><span style="font-size: large;">Will Tesla-SolarCity Deal Pay Off for Investors?</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Awards will be cancelled if $2.6 billion deal closes</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">Lyndon and Peter Rive are among 15 top-paid U.S. executives</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Tesla Motors Inc.’s $2.6 billion offer for SolarCity Corp. is wiping out stock awards given to Elon Musk’s cousins.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Lyndon and Peter Rive, who serve as the chief executive and chief technology officer of SolarCity, were granted combined stock options of about $128 million in the San Mateo, California-based solar company in September, placing them among the 15 highest-paid U.S. executives in 2015, according to the Bloomberg Pay Index. The options will be canceled for no consideration, according to a Monday regulatory filing.</span></div>
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The awards are nearly identical to those offered to Musk at Palo Alto, California-based Tesla in 2012. The billionaire is the chairman and largest shareholder of both companies. Under the awards’ terms, the Rives would have had 10 years to earn the options by achieving sets of goals, with half tied to SolarCity’s stock price and half tied to operational results such as increasing customers, and lowering the cost of generating solar wattage. Every time the company achieved a target in both categories, they would earn 1/10th of the options.</div>
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Jonathan Bass, a spokesman for SolarCity, said the company had no further comment beyond the filings.</div>
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Musk initially offered $26.50 to $28.50 a share in Tesla stock, which was criticized as a “bailout” for the solar company by Angelo Zino, an analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Investors in SolarCity said that the bid was too low, while Tesla shareholders questioned the wisdom of Musk combining his electric-carmaker with the clean-energy company.</div>
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Under the new agreement, SolarCity investors will receive $25.37 a share in Tesla stock. The deal, which allows SolarCity to solicit competing offers through Sept. 14, now goes to the companies’ shareholders for approval.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-6876530066767990802016-08-01T06:50:00.002-07:002016-08-01T06:50:57.263-07:00Amazon, once a big spender, is now a profit machine<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<img alt="Image result for amazon" height="282" 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" 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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Until last year, Amazon was known as much for its ubiquity in online retail as it was for the bold and expensive visions of CEO Jeff Bezos. The company would spend mightily, only to assuage investor fears with promises of a bright future. Many of those investments, like cloud computing, have become huge and profitable businesses. Some — like the failed Fire Phone —have fallen flat on their face. Now, however, Amazon appears to have hit its stride as Bezos' long-term visions for the future begin paying off big time. For the fifth straight quarter, Amazon has earned a profit. This time around, that profit is bigger than it's ever been before, and by a large margin.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">For the <a href="http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=97664&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2189731" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #fa4b2a; text-decoration: none;">second fiscal quarter of 2016</a>, Amazon posted a profit of $857 million, or $1.78 a share, on revenue of $30.1 billion, making these past three months its most profitable quarter in its history. Those earnings handily beat Wall Street expectations, with investors putting Amazon at EPS of $1.11 a share on revenue of $29.56 billion. Year over year, Amazon's profit is up 832 percent while sales have jumped 31 percent from the second quarter of 2015, when Amazon made a profit of only $92 million. After a brief and perplexing dive, Amazon's stock is now up 3 percent, and its share price has jumped more than 40 percent in the last 12 months.</span></div>
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<q class="center" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #fa4b2a; display: block; font-style: italic; font-weight: 700; line-height: 1; margin: 2.5rem 2.5rem 2.2rem; quotes: none; text-align: center; text-transform: uppercase;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">AMAZON POSTED ITS BIGGEST QUARTERLY PROFIT IN THE COMPANY'S HISTORY</span></q></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">So where is this money coming from? Multiple places, in fact. Amazon has begun turning the corner on its more costly sectors like international retail. It's also ramped up investment in cloud computing with the highly profitable Amazon Web Services. Lastly, the company is figuring out ways to cut its logistics costs as it adds more delivery flexibility for its Prime subscription service, which continues to grow and now sits at 60 million members in the US alone. This past week, Prime launched in India. Despite its obvious free shipping perk, Amazon continues to use the service as a way to bring new products, like <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/17/11448880/amazon-prime-monthly-subscription-price-video" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #fa4b2a; text-decoration: none;">video streaming and food delivery</a>, to new markets.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">"It’s been a busy few months for Amazon around the world, and particularly in India — where we launched a new AWS Region, introduced Prime with unlimited free shipping, and announced that Prime Video is coming soon, offering Prime members in India exclusive access to Amazon Original Series and Movies — including original content featuring top Indian creators and talent," Bezos said in a statement. "The team in India is inventing at a torrid pace, and we’re very grateful to our Indian customers for their welcoming response."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">AWS, Amazon's cloud computing platform used by companies as big as Netflix and Spotify, continues to grow. The division more recently added Salesforce as a primary customer, Amazon says, and it posted profit of $718 million on $2.9 billion in sales. That's a 135 percent jump in profit and 58 percent jump in sales compared with the year-ago quarter. For the second straight quarter, AWS earns Amazon more profit than its entire North American retail division.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Amazon's international retail division still loses it money, but it's closing the gap. This past quarter, the division posted an operating loss of $135 million, down 29 percent from $189 million in the second quarter of 2015.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">It's an open question whether Amazon can continue to sustain this profit growth, but the answer may not arrive for some time. Due to the huge success of the company's second annual Prime Day, which occurred on July 12th and broke sales records, the fiscal third quarter ending September 30th may result in yet another big beat. Worldwide Amazon orders <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/13/amazon-prime-day-is-biggest-day-for-online-retailer-ever.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #fa4b2a; text-decoration: none;">rose 60 percent from last year's Prime Day</a>, which amounts to a potential bump of $600 million in additional sales. For the current quarter, Amazon forecasts sales of $31 billion to $33.5 billion.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-39507205529889568612016-07-29T06:30:00.000-07:002016-07-29T06:30:15.189-07:00The Battle for Smart Phones: Apple achieved one billion Iphone sales...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Apple CEO Tim Cook.</div>
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A few days ago, Apple sold its one-billionth iPhone. Apple CEO Tim Cook announced the milestone on Wednesday.</div>
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"We never set out to make the most, but we've always set out to make the best products that make a difference," Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a statement. "Thank you to everyone at Apple for helping change the world every day."</div>
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One billion phones is, no doubt, an impressive number, but does it really mean anything? The iPhone helped define the modern smartphone market, but some have questioned its ability to compete with new, high-quality Android flagship models.</div>
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When it first arrived in the market, the iPhone met a mixed reception. Some lauded the touch screen design, while others scoffed at its high price tag. In fact, then-Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer actually laughed at the iPhone back in 2007.</div>
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However, little did Ballmer know that Apple's revenue from the iPhone alone would eventually eclipse Microsoft's entire revenue, and that trend would continue. In 2015, Cook said that, during a certain quarter, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/business/how-and-why-apple-overtook-microsoft.html?_r=0" style="color: #3289c8; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">Apple was selling 34,000 iPhones an hour, 24 hours a day</a>. At one point, Apple's total revenue was <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/apples-iphone-sales-last-quarter-worth-more-google-microsofts-combined-1797318" style="color: #3289c8; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">more than double that of Microsoft's</a> and more than Google's as well.</div>
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Still, that's the past. In early 2016, Apple announced its first decline in iPhone sales. In Apple's recently announced <a href="http://images.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/q3fy16datasum.pdf" style="color: #3289c8; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">Q3 earnings</a>, Apple reported its second straight quarter of declining iPhone sales, selling only 40.39 million iPhones, a 21% drop from the same quarter a year prior. At that time, the iPhone generated $24 billion by itself. Microsoft's total revenue, as reported by <a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2016-Q3/press-release-webcast" style="color: #3289c8; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">its 2016 Q3 earnings</a>, was $20.5 billion.</div>
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Those numbers are still pretty high, but they represent a massive decline in Apple's major sales driver. In that sense, the billionth iPhone doesn't mean much.</div>
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"It's always great PR for vendors to hit milestones," said Forrester vice president and principal analyst J. P. Gownder. "Unfortunately for Apple, the company hit the billionth iPhone mark in an environment of year-over-year declines. Why? Because the iPhone has saturated a number of markets, leaving Apple with a big gap: The company needs to find the "next big thing" to drive growth, since many of its major products (including iPhone and iPad) are seeing declining sales."</div>
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The first few years of the iPhone were marked by excitement. Long lines wrapped around Apple's retail spaces in malls around the country, and certain models routinely selling out within the first week. However, an upgrade cycle marked by simple iterations and waning innovation has made new iPhone models feel stale.</div>
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The iPhone laid the foundation for the current smartphone market, but Apple's innovation hasn't kept pace with its biggest rivals. While Apple did make an AI pivot at the <a href="http://www.zdnet.com/article/apple-makes-its-ai-pivot-with-siri-and-ios-10-plays-to-strengths-developers/" style="color: #3289c8; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">latest WWDC</a>, only time will tell if its efforts were enough.</div>
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With that being said, the iPhone is still one of the most popular smartphones on the planet, and a status symbol for many users. Apple has finally begin targeting emerging markets with the iPhone SE, and one billion iPhones sold means that there will be demand for iOS apps for quite some time.</div>
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"A billion iPhones ensures the vitality of the developer ecosystem for a long time to come," Gownder said. "iOS is a de facto go-to for most developers, alongside the even larger Android ecosystem, and iOS enjoys many high-income users."</div>
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Additionally, the iPhone is still massively popular with businesses, and likely gained some more <a href="http://www.techrepublic.com/article/apple-rivals-line-up-behind-cook-and-company-against-the-us-government/" style="color: #3289c8; cursor: pointer; outline: 0px;">fans with Apple's renewed stance on security</a>. So, the question then becomes when the lack of innovation around things like AI will matter to the enterprise, and if that will force a further drop in iPhone sales.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-7606442055504229362016-07-28T06:01:00.002-07:002016-07-28T06:01:24.884-07:00Twitter still has revenue problems, and its stock is down big<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLy826L_XfJC2BCVUrE2rGWi8DBteF6yBxnd0la8Mh9Yi9-AUAX5OJ6mjUJ7LhifseJmlS5XrtOA1CMUvgz6ubg0aaLsoxfZr1nJ14DG9LoB_Bu9T1Ls3If8Syi24bKnI1VnK6HGEHTf37/s1600/twitter.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLy826L_XfJC2BCVUrE2rGWi8DBteF6yBxnd0la8Mh9Yi9-AUAX5OJ6mjUJ7LhifseJmlS5XrtOA1CMUvgz6ubg0aaLsoxfZr1nJ14DG9LoB_Bu9T1Ls3If8Syi24bKnI1VnK6HGEHTf37/s640/twitter.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Twitter missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates. Again.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Twitter reported Q2 earnings on Tuesday and investors aren’t happy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The key issue is likely Twitter’s Q3 guidance. The company says it is targeting $590 million to $610 million in revenue next quarter. Early analyst estimates pegged that number at $678 million, according to Yahoo Finance. So that’s a big discrepancy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The Q2 numbers weren’t fantastic either. Twitter added three million new monthly active users last quarter — what analysts expected — bringing the company’s new total to 313 million. But Twitter also reported profits of 13 cents per share on revenue of $602 million for the quarter, which is lower than expected.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The stock was immediately down more than 10 percent on the news and seems to be hovering there.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Wall Street was looking for profits of 10 cents per share on $607 million in revenue. (Interesting note: These are basically the same expectations Wall Street set last quarter, and Twitter missed on revenue then, too.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">So here’s Twitter’s dilemma: CEO Jack Dorsey has effectively been in charge of Twitter for the past year, and it’s clear that the company’s growth problem is still a problem. On top of that, Twitter has now missed revenue estimates two quarters in a row, and significantly cut its Q3 guidance. So there’s a clear revenue problem to go along with the growth problem. Not good.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">To state the obvious, this kind of production (or lack thereof) doesn’t help Dorsey’s case for running two companies (remember, he also runs Square). It also puts pressure on the board to consider broader options for the company, namely selling. Twitter is in the very beginning stages of trying to transition its business to look more like TV, but it doesn’t have a lot of runway left.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">We are still digging through all the data now and will update this story as we learn more. For those interested, Twitter will hold a call with press and investors at 5 pm ET Tuesday, and we’ll be listening in. Unfortunately, you won’t be able to watch the call on Periscope this quarter — Twitter isn’t doing that any more.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-92096680735915757052016-07-27T12:32:00.003-07:002016-07-27T12:32:52.595-07:00The Only Winners in Volkswagen's Diesel Mess Are Drivers<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg</div>
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<span class="lede-headline__highlighted" style="-webkit-box-decoration-break: clone; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 0.625rem 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; vertical-align: middle;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">A half-million tainted cars head to the scrap heap, and owners walk away with up to $44,000.</span></span></div>
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Jeremy Malczyk's 2012 Volkswagen Jetta Sportwagen is no prize. It has 70,000 hard miles on it, and the interior has been finely detailed by his two young children: beige leather buffed with beige Cheerios. But the vehicle comes equipped with a two-liter diesel engine doctored to cheat on emissions tests, so it will likely fetch <a data-tracker-action="click" data-tracker-category="nav" data-tracker-label="inline_link.01" data-web-url="https://www.vwcourtsettlement.com/en/docs/Executive%20Summary%20of%20Proposed%20Settlement%20Program.pdf" href="https://www.vwcourtsettlement.com/en/docs/Executive%20Summary%20of%20Proposed%20Settlement%20Program.pdf" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(43, 0, 247); box-sizing: border-box; color: #262626; outline: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: color 0.1s ease-out;" target="_blank">almost $22,000</a> (PDF) in Volkswagen's buyback program. A similarly used Sportwagen without the dirty diesel would fetch about $9,000 on the open market.</div>
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A U.S. District Court in California may approve the details of a massive Volkswagen repurchase program as early as Monday, and checks are expected to trickle down this fall to U.S. owners of some 482,000 Golfs, Beetles, Jettas, and Passats, as well as Audi A3 sedans sold with engines that violate emissions standards. It will mark a painful hit for Volkswagen—part of a <a data-tracker-action="click" data-tracker-category="recirc" data-tracker-label="inline_link.02" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-21/vw-reaches-u-s-deal-to-get-diesel-cheat-cars-off-the-road" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(43, 0, 247); box-sizing: border-box; color: #262626; outline: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: color 0.1s ease-out;">$15.3 billion settlement</a> with the Environmental Protection Agency—and a windfall for owners of otherwise deeply depreciated vehicles.</div>
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“I bought it just before I kind of found Jesus, financially,” Malczyk said of his four-year-old Sportwagen. “So this is going to be kind of a nice way to reset.”</div>
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The average purchase is expected to range from $12,500 to $44,000, with values pegged to the value <span class="annotation" id="footnote-1468951645456-ref" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.5px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;"><a data-tracker-action="click" data-tracker-category="nav" data-tracker-label="inline_link.03" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/#footnote-1468951645456" rel="footnote" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background: transparent; border-bottom: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #2b00f7; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-decoration: none; transition: color 0.1s ease-out;" target="_blank">1</a></span> of each car just before the diesel scandal broke in September 2015. All of the afflicted vehicles will be considered in “clean condition,” even if the wheels are falling off. Tacked onto the value of each car will be a “restitution” payment equal to 20 percent of the vehicle value, plus $2,987.</div>
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All told, owners stand to make at least double what their cars were worth just before news of the scandal.</div>
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<img data-attachment-key="300457840" src="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iRMHh.Adt.xc/v0/488x-1.png" srcset="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iRMHh.Adt.xc/v0/488x-1.png 488w, https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iRMHh.Adt.xc/v0/628x-1.png 628w, https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iRMHh.Adt.xc/v0/750x-1.png 750w, https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iRMHh.Adt.xc/v0/-1x-1.png 1200w" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 1200px; position: relative; width: 740px; z-index: 1;" /></div>
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“Financially, consumers are going to do far better than if diesel-gate never happened,” said Ernie Garcia, chief executive officer of Carvana, an online used car dealer in 14 U.S. cities. “My guess is most of them will be able to make a decision on this very quickly.”</div>
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Regulators pushed Volkswagen to spread payments widely. Owners who are upside-down on car payments–owing more than their car is worth–will be offered loan forgiveness or an even larger payout, up to 130 percent of the value of the car. Even a former owner who sold one of the afflicted cars after news of the scandal will be eligible for half the restitution payment, with the other half going to the current owner of the car.</div>
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This is all in addition to the $500 cash cards that the company has already scattered to owners.</div>
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“It is certainly the most comprehensive and thorough compensation package I’ve ever seen an automaker offer owners,” said Karl Brauer, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book.</div>
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After Volkswagen takes the tainted vehicles off the road, what will become of the nearly half-million cars unfit for use in the U.S. remains unclear. There may eventually be a fix for the diesel engines, and owners retain the right to keep their cars and wait. Those who do will still be able to collect the restitution payment and, in theory at least, the company could eventually put the repurchased cars back on the road.</div>
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<img alt="A direct injection diesel engine (TDI) of a Volkswagen Passat." data-attachment-key="263571510" src="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iFdVa9yZAkhA/v0/488x-1.jpg" srcset="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iFdVa9yZAkhA/v0/488x-1.jpg 488w, https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iFdVa9yZAkhA/v0/628x-1.jpg 628w, https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iFdVa9yZAkhA/v0/750x-1.jpg 750w, https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iFdVa9yZAkhA/v0/1200x-1.jpg 1200w, https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iFdVa9yZAkhA/v0/-1x-1.jpg 2200w" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 2200px; position: relative; width: 740px; z-index: 1;" /></div>
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A direct injection diesel engine (TDI) of a Volkswagen Passat.</div>
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Photographer: Miles Willis/Bloomberg</div>
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But the timeline on any potential fix stretches to July 2019, and environmental groups are already bracing for a fight. The California Air Resources Board <a data-tracker-action="click" data-tracker-category="recirc" data-tracker-label="inline_link.04" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-19/even-after-recall-vw-s-dirty-diesels-won-t-meet-air-standards" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(43, 0, 247); box-sizing: border-box; color: #262626; outline: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: color 0.1s ease-out;">estimates</a> that any modification would still allow more NOx pollution than cars that fully comply with clean-air laws.</div>
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“Honestly, I think [Volkswagen will] probably just junk them,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kevin Tynan. “They’ll have already spent all that money to buy them back. They’re not going to spend more to retrofit them.”</div>
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Brauer, at Kelley Blue Book, expects from 70 percent to 90 percent of owners to take the buyback. “I think Volkswagen’s approach is, ‘We’re going to assume scrap value on all of these,” he said.</div>
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It's a staggering number of cars to toss onto the scrap heap. Volkswagen needed the past 18 months to sell as many new vehicles in the U.S. The company is still trying to figure out how to make amends for diesel gamesmanship on its larger, three-liter engines. There are 85,000 of them on the road in the U.S.</div>
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Malczyk, meanwhile, is one of a few people who knows exactly what to do with his tainted Volkswagen while he waits to sell it back to its maker. He’s going to wreck it, or at least flog it extremely hard in the coming weeks. Oil changes? Pass. Car wash? Nah. An impromptu rally course through the hardwoods of Connecticut? Sure. None of those will affect his payout.</div>
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"I guess I could just park it for six or seven years," he mused. "It would be the last diesel wagon in America and there's always going to be some geeked out diesel fan who's into these things."</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-52876113705052918932016-07-26T09:56:00.003-07:002016-07-26T09:56:57.460-07:00What Sank Yahoo? <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The epilogue in the long, sad story of Yahoo!, the web portal with the perpetually ebullient exclamation mark, is finally being written. After emerging as the top bidder in a five-month auction, Verizon Communications has agreed to buy the historic web franchise’s core assets for $4.83 billion.</div>
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Yahoo Chief Executive Officer Marissa Mayer will assist with the transition until the sale is complete and then depart the company with a comfortable parachute worth more than $50 million in cash and stock. So let’s not weep for her. But inevitably, a passel of eulogies will be crafted about her failed four-year attempt to turn around the company. These reflections will be largely unfair, because the decline and demise of Yahoo isn’t totally her fault. It’s at least partially the fault of its founders, Jerry Yang and David Filo.</div>
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The early story of Yahoo is now Silicon Valley mythology. As graduate students at the Stanford School of Engineering in 1994, Yang, a math-oriented Taiwanese immigrant, and Filo, a quiet programmer from Louisiana, created a directory of links called Jerry and David’s Guide to the World Wide Web. It was a handy map to what was then an unnavigable digital landscape, and web surfers loved it. The following year, when Sequoia Capital invested in the newly renamed startup, it brought in a former Motorola executive named Tim Koogle to be CEO.</div>
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The move reflected the reigning conventional wisdom of the time—bring in an experienced chief executive and go public early. But while they stepped aside to become “chief Yahoos,” as their business cards said, Filo and Yang stayed intimately involved. Filo, as the technical leader, wrote the very first version of Yahoo search and made the bulk of decisions about the company’s underlying technical architecture. Yang stayed close to strategic decisions and was instrumental after the dot-com crash in replacing Koogle with Terry Semel, the longtime co-CEO of Warner Brothers.</div>
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Semel brought with him a core group of native media execs whose names are now familiar in Silicon Valley, like Jeff Weiner, the CEO of LinkedIn, and Dan Rosensweig, CEO of textbook rental service Chegg. This was the origin of what would become Yahoo’s enduring split-personality: Was it a technology company or a media company? Sitting on perhaps the most valuable piece of real estate on the web, shuttling between its offices in Santa Monica, California, and Sunnyvale, Yahoo executives tried to be a little bit of both.</div>
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We now know what it takes for technology companies to succeed: fierce, often unpleasant, founders who are able to make hard choices and place unpopular bets. During the years that Yahoo was banking on the media business, Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com, for example, expanded into unprofitable lines of online retail, brooked a painfully hollow stock price, cut workers, and finally spawned a completely different business in the cloud, called Amazon Web Services. At Google, Larry Page and Sergey Brin brought in Eric Schmidt as CEO, but they governed as a triumvirate of equals, inventing an insanely profitable text advertising business that augmented web search results, rather than distracting from them like Yahoo’s eye-ball burning banner ads.</div>
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During the 2000s, Yahoo’s biggest mistakes were failures of will. Semel, billed as a “deals guy” from Hollywood, could have bought Google in 2002, as Fred Vogelstein reported in Wired. Yahoo also came close to buying Facebook in 2006, until Semel lowered his offer from $1 billion to $850 million after a disappointing earnings report, alienating an already reluctant Mark Zuckerberg in the process, according to David Kirkpatrick’s book, The Facebook Effect.</div>
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These acquisitions probably looked like risky, uneconomical moves that Yahoo investors might hate. That’s the whole point. Web companies need the unique power of founders to do unpopular things. Page advocated for Google to buy the money-losing video sharing site YouTube in 2006; Zuckerberg made what seemed like an outrageously overpriced bet on the photo app Instagram in 2012. This is how tech companies survive—the ability to take risks.</div>
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Yang took over as CEO from Semel in 2007 but was either too nice or too unwilling to make hard decisions. In retrospect, he should have fired more employees, and banked hard toward technology and the emerging smartphone revolution. In what now looks like his biggest blunder, he turned away one of the best exits Yahoo would ever see, Microsoft’s unsolicited $45 billion bid in 2008, an effort by then CEO Steve Ballmer to compete with Google.</div>
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In what should now be the canonical photo of Yahoo’s decline, from the Allen & Co. conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, that June, Yang was pictured sitting with Page and Brin, his head in his hands, presumably bemoaning the overture from the big, lame software blunderbuss from the north. The photo reveals Yang’s confusion at the time about Yahoo’s true enemy. It was not Ballmer and his gang of Windows fanatics. It was the Google guys, there listening supportively across the table from him.</div>
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<img alt="Jerry Yang, left, and David Filo in Sunnyvale, California, in 2007." height="557" src="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ijgsyw1w2W4s/v0/488x-1.jpg" width="640" /></div>
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Jerry Yang, left, and David Filo in Sunnyvale, California, in 2007.</div>
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After that, it was pretty much over for slow-footed Yahoo, trying to navigate a fast-changing internet landscape with uninspired CEOs like Carol Bartz and Scott Thompson at the helm. In periodically leaked missives, executives bemoaned that Yahoo was spreading itself too thin over too many lackluster products. Without a steadier hand from its founders, Yahoo had lost its way culturally as much as strategically. It was fat with layers of accountants, lawyers, and product managers, people whose job it was to mitigate risk, rather than take it. Yang didn’t respond to requests for comment, and Filo declined to comment through a spokeswoman.</div>
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The founders did make big contributions. In 2005, Yang helped orchestrate what would be the company’s best deal: the sale of its businesses in China to Alibaba, along with a $1 billion investment. He deserves tons of credit for that. It’s also likely that his voice was not always heard. In 2012, Yang left the company’s board of directors after its disastrous decision to hire PayPal’s Scott Thompson as CEO and then promptly fire him upon discovering he fibbed on his résumé. For his part, Filo has been the picture of corporate loyalty in an age sorely lacking it. He joined the Yahoo board when Mayer took over the company and, by all accounts, remains an inspirational figure.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">But by that time, the mistakes of the past loomed too large. Perhaps there was a short window of opportunity for Mayer to bet the company on a bold acquisition or a new product, but it closed fast. She made strange moves, spending a huge chunk of her figurative and literal capital on a $1.1 billion deal for the also-ran social network Tumblr in 2013. Tumblr, like so many other Yahoo acquisitions (Flickr, et al.) went nowhere fast, perhaps because there were not enough nutrients in the Yahoo soil for any startup to thrive.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Others have chronicled more of Mayer’s mistakes. But now it’s all ancient internet history, to be parceled out and puzzled over by business school students. It’s time for us to mourn Yahoo. Sorry, I mean—Yahoo!</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-28804531324098044642016-07-25T06:26:00.002-07:002016-07-25T06:26:41.046-07:00The Strange Politics of Peter Thiel, Trump’s Most Unlikely Supporter (BW)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><i>The Republican Party’s new trade-loving, free-thinking, gay, Christian, antiwar, rich-as-hell, naturalized-citizen, Silicon Valley hero.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">When Peter Thiel has the first move in a chess game, he lifts his e2 pawn, the fifth from the left and the one directly in front of his king, and advances it two spaces. It’s an aggressive tactic, putting the bishop and queen into play, which is why Thiel likes it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The king’s pawn, as it’s known, was the preferred opening by the American chess grandmaster Bobby Fischer. And even though Thiel considers the move more perilous than another popular opening, the queen’s pawn, he’s made it his go-to. “It’s the attacking move,” he explained last year. “If you’re short of world champion level, I always enjoy increasing the risk involved and the volatility of the game.” The comments, made at an event at George Mason University, were revealing. If you’re a few rungs down from the biggest players, he seemed to be saying, it doesn’t hurt to create a bit of chaos.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Thiel boasts a World Chess Federation rating of 2,199, one point short of the group’s lowest honorific, candidate master. At 48, he’s co-founded PayPal, was Facebook’s first outside investor, and is worth almost $3 billion. He still sits on Facebook’s board, and through his firm, Founders Fund, made early bets on Spotify, Airbnb, SpaceX, Lyft, Palantir Technologies, and a half-dozen other private companies worth more than $1 billion each.</span></div>
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<img alt="Thiel" src="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icmOs4TbWsmQ/v0/488x-1.jpg" /></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">His status as ringleader of the PayPal Mafia, the network of former employees and co-founders that includes SpaceX’s Elon Musk and LinkedIn’s Reid Hoffman, makes him one of Silicon Valley’s most influential and admired figures; his iconoclastic politics make him a subject of amusement. Not coincidentally, and disconcertingly to many of those close to him, Thiel is also one of Donald Trump’s most prominent backers.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">On Thursday night, after four days of speeches by an eclectic group including the guy who played Chachi on Happy Days, at least one underwear model, and a promoter of professional cage fighting, Thiel is scheduled to address the Republican National Convention in a prime-time speaking slot shortly before Trump accepts the nomination. Thiel declined to comment for this article, but according to a person familiar with his speech, he plans to embrace Trump’s skepticism about recent U.S. wars in the Middle East and to praise the candidate’s economic qualifications—despite Trump’s advocacy of protectionist tariffs and extreme immigration restrictions, measures that would seem at odds with the radical libertarian image Thiel projects. Thiel also plans to say that, though he considers identity politics a distraction, he’s proud of his identity as a gay man.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">Thiel will be the first speaker to publicly acknowledge his or her homosexuality at a Republican convention. Jim Kolbe, the former Arizona congressman, spoke briefly at the 2000 convention without acknowledging his sexuality. (During the speech, members of the Texas delegation removed their cowboy hats and prayed.) Unlike Kolbe, Thiel will speak on the final night, when ratings are highest. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">His speech also marks an historic moment for Silicon Valley. After decades of avoiding politics, technology companies have suddenly taken an interest in elections. “In the tech world there’s a feeling that politics is not something you do willingly,” says Bruce Cain, a professor of political science at Stanford. “These are not ethnic studies majors.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">But the industry has been moving into more heavily regulated areas of the economy in recent years. Uber and Airbnb are locked in battles with municipalities over the “sharing economy.” Tesla Motors faces scrutiny over its driverless car program. Google and Apple have been fighting off federal government pressure to build backdoors into their technology. Since 2005, the lobbying expenditures of internet companies have increased sevenfold, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Political contributions by internet companies and their employees, 70 percent of which go to Democrats, are also way up. During the 2006 midterm elections, donors gave $2.4 million; in 2014 the figure was $11.6 million.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;"><i><b>“It wouldn’t surprise me,” Levchin said, “if the underlying reality of his choice were the sheer contrariness of what he is doing”</b></i></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">The conventional wisdom in Silicon Valley is that Trump would be disastrous for an industry that markets itself to the world and draws from a global talent pool. According to the Silicon Valley Index, a long-running survey published by a Bay Area trade group, 74 percent of workers age 25 to 44 in computer or mathematical roles were born abroad. Many of them come to the country on H-1B visas, which Trump has derided as “a cheap labor program.” </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">Moreover, Apple, Facebook, and Google explicitly promote the same countercultural values, such as racial and religious tolerance, that Trump has routinely attacked as political correctness run amok.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">On July 14 a group of 140 or so tech industry figures including Slack’s Stewart Butterfield, EBay founder Pierre Omidyar, Twitter co-founder Evan Williams, and, for some reason, the Reverend Jesse Jackson, released an open letter decrying Trump’s candidacy. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">“Trump would be a disaster for innovation,” it read. “His vision stands against the open exchange of ideas, free movement of people, and productive engagement with the outside world that is critical to our economy— and that provide the foundation for innovation and growth.” On the same day, Thiel issued a statement confirming he’d speak in Cleveland. “Many people are uncertain in this election year but most Americans agree that our country is on the wrong track,” he said. “I don’t think we can fix our problems unless we can talk about them frankly.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">The timing, according to an investor who knows him, was classic Thiel: “He’s always thinking, ‘How can I use this to move my agenda forward?’ ” Another acquaintance, a founder of a startup in which Thiel is an investor, says with a mix of fear and admiration, “He’s diabolical.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;"> </span></span><span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: large; line-height: 29.124px;">“Every time I read [of Thiel’s support for Trump], I typically check the calendar because I’m not completely sure it’s not April 1,” said Max Levchin, Thiel’s friend and PayPal co-founder, at a June conference, after recovering from a giggling fit. He went on: “It wouldn’t surprise me if the underlying reality of his choice were the sheer contrariness of what he is doing.” (Levchin declined to comment further.)</span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">Thiel’s presence in Cleveland is mystifying in part because he seems so at odds with the 2016 Republican Party, even in all its heterodox, Trumpian glory. Thiel is not only gay, he’s a pro-marijuana immigrant in a party that has long seemed hostile to all those things. In a 2014 interview with the conservative website the Daily Caller, he referred to Trump as “sort of symptomatic of everything that is wrong with New York City.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">Republicans often talk of using free-market competition to bring the cost of attending college down; Thiel is anti-college. He runs a fellowship that gives promising students $100,000 to drop out. “Education,” he said in a 2011 interview with the National Review, “is a bubble in a classic sense.” Among other generally agreed-upon concepts about which Thiel has expressed doubts: antitrust policies (he’s pro-monopoly), women’s suffrage (in a 2009 essay for the libertarian journal Cato Unbound, he noted that women have a troublesome tendency not to be libertarian), and the political system of the U.S. (in the same essay he noted, “I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible”). Thiel has also funded efforts to cure death, which he considers a treatable disease, and to create an offshore colony free of governmental interference. The concept is known as “seasteading.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">Thiel’s politics may be weird, but they’ve endeared him to the press, which has presented him as a kind of TED Talk eccentric, or as Fortune put it, “America’s leading public intellectual.” He wears his contrarian thinking as a badge of honor, always asking job candidates to name one true thing that the world disagrees with them on.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">Over the years he has evolved into a calculating operator, a man who nursed a decade-long grudge against a blog while secretly spending millions to destroy it. In 2007, Valleywag, the tech gossip site owned by Gawker Media, noted that Thiel, who had come out to friends but not to the public, was gay. Nine years later, in May, Thiel revealed he’d been funding numerous lawsuits against Gawker, including one involving a sex tape featuring Terry Bollea, also known as Hulk Hogan, that resulted in a $140 million judgment in Bollea’s favor. Gawker filed for bankruptcy in June; founder Nick Denton has indicated that he may file for personal bankruptcy as well. Meanwhile the episode has led to unflattering headlines for Thiel, who defended his involvement in a trial involving a sex tape and a professional wrestler as “one of my greater philanthropic things.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">Thiel’s childhood was filled with signs of quirky genius. He was born in Germany in 1967 and moved to the U.S. at age 1. He was a chess prodigy—ranking seventh in the U.S. Chess Federation’s under-13 age group—with a thing for J.R.R. Tolkien and Ayn Rand. But by the time he made it to college, he was on a very conventional path. The man who urges young people to drop out of college did the full four at Stanford, plus three to earn a law degree. At Stanford, Thiel was a rabble-rouser, but a respectable one. He founded a right-wing newspaper, the Stanford Review, and chose to chronicle the culture wars as a writer, rather than taking up arms himself. The Diversity Myth, a 1995 book he co-wrote with David O. Sacks, railed against multiculturalism, which, they wrote, “exists to destroy Western culture.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">After Stanford came an appeals court clerkship and a job at the white-shoe law firm Sullivan & Cromwell in New York. In a commencement speech at Hamilton College earlier this year, Thiel recalled quitting the firm after seven months and three days. “Looking back at my ambition to become a lawyer, it looks less like a plan for the future and more an alibi for the present,” he said. In the speech, as he usually does, he skipped over the three years he spent at Credit Suisse as a derivatives trader before moving West.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">In the Cato Unbound essay, he said his vision for PayPal was “centered on the creation of a new world currency, free from all government control and dilution—the end of monetary sovereignty, as it were.” But in Zero to One, a startup how-to manual he published in 2014, he seemed to moderate this, emphasizing that the message was self-consciously strident and thus useful in recruiting talented, impressionable young programmers. (The word “libertarian” plays very well in tech.) Indeed, PayPal almost seems to have immediately abandoned any radical ambitions, striking deals with banks and credit card companies, and selling itself to EBay for $1.5 billion just four years after its founding. The company was spun off last year and is now worth almost $50 billion.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">Thiel’s libertarianism also proved useful in promoting Palantir, a data mining company he co-founded in 2004, which received funding from the CIA. Palantir’s software has been used by police and intelligence agencies to search vast databases for suspicious clues and patterns, though it’s unclear exactly which databases and what the technology is capable of finding. The mystery has made the company controversial, especially after the Edward Snowden leaks. The company responded to concerns that it was enabling domestic spying by emphasizing Thiel’s civil libertarian bona fides, arguing that Palantir creates a paper trail that makes government abuses less likely. “It was a mission-oriented company,” Thiel told Forbes in 2013. “I defined the problem as needing to reduce terrorism while preserving civil liberties.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">Thiel’s main gig for much of the Aughts was at Clarium Capital Management, which attempted to leverage his pessimism about U.S. economic institutions into a profitable investment strategy. He made a contrarian bet against housing prices, and the fund delivered a 59 percent return for the first half of 2008. But Thiel stumbled in 2009, clinging to his bearish thesis and missing the recovery. The fund ultimately lost more than 90 percent of its value and Thiel laid off most of its staff, transforming it into a personal investment vehicle. Several people familiar with Clarium said that Thiel’s insistence that the fund ignore short-term volatility and stick to his long-term investment thesis was what doomed it.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">In interviews, four of Thiel’s friends and colleagues—all of whom would speak only on the condition of anonymity—characterized his decision to back Trump as in keeping with his entrepreneurial instincts. He loves disruption, in the Silicon Valley sense of “creative destruction,” as opposed to the usual connotation of “making things worse,” and has weighed the candidate’s demagoguery against a hope that a Trump administration would clear the way for further disruption. It is, these friends and colleagues say, a perfectly sensible chess move—the political equivalent of the king’s pawn.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">“I don’t think it’s completely out of character,” says Garrett Johnson, co-founder of SendHub, a Bay Area messaging startup, and Lincoln Initiative, a right-leaning nonprofit. Johnson, who supports the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson (no relation), notes that many of Thiel’s portfolio companies might benefit from a Trump presidency. “Donald Trump is saying the system is rigged,” he says, adding that SpaceX, which counts NASA as its biggest customer and which Founders Fund has been backing since 2008, “is being blocked by Boeing and the aerospace cartels.” </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">Many of Thiel’s smaller investments, such as the health-care startup Oscar and the education company AltSchool, also do business in highly regulated industries.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3c3c; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 29.124px;">Perhaps the biggest Thiel-backed beneficiary of a Trump administration would be Palantir. The company, recently valued at $20 billion, still isn’t profitable and has struggled to retain employees over the past year. Today about half of Palantir’s sales—it booked deals totaling $1.7 billion in 2015—comes from companies such as BP; the other half comes from the National Security Agency, the FBI, branches of the U.S. Department of Defense, and other government entities. The U.S. Army isn’t a customer—yet—but it’s currently bidding out a software contract that could be worth up to $25 billion. Palantir, which had hoped to win some of the business, is suing the Army on the grounds that the process is biased toward longtime contractors.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">In this light, it’s easy to see why Thiel’s ambitions extend beyond those of your average public intellectual. He doesn’t just want to be respected by readers of the Daily Caller and the <em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box;">National Review</em>; he wants, or at least seems to want, actual power, which a Trump presidency would undoubtedly deliver. It’s not clear what Thiel gives Trump in this trade, beyond a sheen of Silicon Valley respectability. (According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Thiel hasn’t donated any money this election cycle to Trump. Last year he gave $2 million to a PAC that supported Carly Fiorina and more than $8,000 to the campaign of Mike Lee, a Utah senator who’s part of the #NeverTrump movement.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Trump is widely seen as the underdog, a sense that was magnified by a series of missteps during the convention’s first three days—including an apparent instance of plagiarism in a speech given by his wife, Melania. But that’s the point. According to people who know him, Thiel sees his support of Trump as the ultimate hedge. Having already staked out a position as the Valley’s preeminent kooky libertarian, he’d see his standing largely undiminished by a Trump loss. Betting markets put the possibility of a Trump victory at about 30 percent. Most prone to judge Thiel probably already despise him for his other heresies. But if Trump wins, Thiel will be the U.S. president’s kooky libertarian.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-66006373632010378592016-07-21T07:57:00.003-07:002016-07-21T07:57:29.149-07:00Google Cuts Its Giant Electricity Bill With DeepMind-Powered AI (BW)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: large;">Google just paid for part of its acquisition of DeepMind in a surprising way.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The internet giant is using technology from the DeepMind artificial intelligence subsidiary for big savings on the power consumed by its data centers, according to DeepMind Co-Founder Demis Hassabis.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">In recent months, the Alphabet Inc. unit put a DeepMind AI system in control of parts of its data centers to reduce power consumption by manipulating computer servers and related equipment like cooling systems. It uses a similar technique to DeepMind software that taught itself to play Atari video games, Hassabis said in an interview at a recent AI conference in New York.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The system cut power usage in the data centers by several percentage points, "which is a huge saving in terms of cost but, also, great for the environment," he said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The savings translate into a 15 percent improvement in power usage efficiency, or PUE, Google said in a statement. PUE measures how much electricity Google uses for its computers, versus the supporting infrastructure like cooling systems.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Google said it used 4,402,836 MWh of electricity in 2014, equivalent to the average yearly consumption of about 366,903 U.S. family homes. A significant proportion of Google’s spending on electricity comes from its data centers, which support its globe-spanning web services and mobile apps.</span></div>
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Saving a few percentage points of electricity usage means major financial gains for Google. Typical electricity prices companies pay in the U.S. range from about $25 to $40 per MWh, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. (Prices in different regions range from a few dollars to more than $100). Either way, saving 10 percent on data center power consumption, for instance, could translate to hundreds of millions of dollars in savings for Google over multiple years. Google acquired DeepMind in 2014 for 400 million pounds, or more than $600 million at the time, according to The Guardian.</div>
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The application of DeepMind’s technology builds on previous efforts by Google to apply machine learning, a type of AI, to its data centers. Back in 2014, the company said it used neural networks, a type of pattern recognition system, to predict how its power usage would change over time, letting it arrange equipment in more efficient ways.</div>
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The DeepMind work goes a step further. Instead of making moves in an Atari game, the software changes how equipment runs inside the data centers to get the highest score -- in this case more efficient consumption of electricity.</div>
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"It controls about 120 variables in the data centers. The fans and the cooling systems and so on, and windows and other things," Hassabis said. "They were pretty astounded."</div>
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This is just the beginning of the project, Hassabis said. Now that DeepMind knows the approach works, it also knows where its AI system lacks information, so it may ask Google to put additional sensors into its data centers to let its software eke out even more efficiency.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-81958746269474789942016-07-20T10:50:00.000-07:002016-07-20T10:50:15.048-07:00Netflix stock price tanks as customers quit over higher prices<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The results of its global expansion are starting to become clear</span></div>
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<img alt="Image result for Netflix" height="425" 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" 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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Netflix released its earnings report for the second quarter today. The company was one of 2015's best performing stocks, but has seen its share price stumble in recent months on projections of slower growth. Today it reported $1.97 billion in revenue and net income of $41 million. Adding to worries about its growth, the company added just 1.54 million subscribers, well below its own projections of 2.5 million new customers. The stock is down around 14 percent in after-hours trading.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">In its letter to investors, Netflix blamed the weak subscriber growth on churn, meaning older customers exiting. "Our global member forecast for Q2 was 2.5m and we came in at 1.7m. Gross additions were on target, but churn ticked up slightly and unexpectedly, coincident with the press coverage in early April of our plan to ungrandfather longer tenured members and remained elevated through the quarter," Netflix wrote. "We think some members perceived the news as an impending new price increase rather than the completion of two years of grandfathering."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The company stuck to its guns on the price hikes, writing that "while ungrandfathering and associated media coverage may moderate near term membership growth, we believe that ungrandfathering will provide us with more revenue to invest in our content to satisfy members, thus driving longterm growth."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Netflix needs to increase revenues, because in recent years it has invested heavily in expansion and original content. These improvements have enticed subscribers to join the service; Netflix gained 13 million new subscribers in 2014, and another 17 million in 2015. In both years, Netflix saw new subscriptions spike in the fourth quarter, with the second quarter yielding the lowest number of new subscribers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Today's earnings report showed that the company may have seen the end of the explosive growth it generated in the run up to its expansion into 130 new countries. The company may soon have new upside in its domestic market, as it gains access to Comcast's X1 box, and perhaps hubs for other cable providers in the near future, but so far, it's not banking on these partnerships for new growth. In its investor letter, Netflix wrote it "does not include any boost in the US from the Comcast X1 launch due to uncertainty on timing as we and Comcast will only release Netflix on the X1 when the viewer experience is great."</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-64181543899839869732016-07-19T08:54:00.004-07:002016-07-19T08:54:22.234-07:00My Venezuela Nightmare:<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><i>A 30-Day Hunt for Food in a Starving Land (BW)</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The diary of a desperate mother trying to put food on the kitchen table.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">By Fabiola Zerpa | July 18, 2016</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><i>Nota del Editor</i>: Los saqueos, los cortes de electricidad, los linchamientos, los hospitales sin medicinas. El desplome de Venezuela hacia el caos no tiene parangón en el continente en décadas recientes. En un esfuerzo por ilustrar el día a día en el país, nuestra periodista Fabiola Zerpa documentó sus esfuerzos para abastecer de alimentos a su familia de clase media. Esta es una selección de su crónica de un mes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><i>Junio 9</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><i>Jueves</i>. Mi única oportunidad para comprar productos básicos—aceite para cocinar, jabón para lavar—a precios regulados por el gobierno. Todos los venezolanos mayores de edad tenemos asignados días de la semana para adquirir estas mercancías basados en el número de nuestro documento de identidad. Domingos y jueves son los míos. Los domingos son un desperdicio. Los jueves son ligeramente más provechosos. En los últimos meses, las colas en los dos supermercados cerca de mi casa en el este de Caracas se han hecho tan largas, de casi dos cuadras, que me tomaría horas comprar algo. Y una vez dentro del local no hay garantía de que encontraré lo que busco, cualquier cosa.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">De todas formas, en la mañana salgo en mi carro a ver cómo están esos supermercados. No tengo suerte. Están tan abarrotados que ni siquiera puedo estacionar el coche. Continúo. Mi pauta periodística del día me obligará a pasar por varias zonas de la ciudad, así que, obviamente, estaré a la caza de productos, cualquiera que pueda llevar a casa para mis hijos–un niño de ocho años y una niña de diez años-y mi esposo Isaac.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Entro a una farmacia. A Isaac se le está acabando su medicina diaria, unas pastillas anticolesterol. Su médico le prescribió Vytorin o Hiperlipen. No las tienen en existencia. “Espere,” me dice el farmaceuta: un laboratorio de la India acaba de firmar un acuerdo con el gobierno por un medicamento similar. La idea no me gusta para nada—¿quién sabe si está probado médicamente?—pero es mejor, concluyo, que arriesgarnos a que Isaac se quede sin medicina. Compro cuatro cajitas.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Al mediodía, me acerco a una panadería para comprar pan. Me saluda una joven mujer y ásperamente me dice: “Sólo vendemos a las 5 de la tarde, señora”. Una vez fuera me percato que en la puerta hay un letrero, que por alguna razón no vi al entrar: “NO HAY PAN”. De regreso al carro, me doy cuenta que no tengo dinero. Me dirijo a un cajero automático. No tiene billetes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Más tarde, cuando mi jornada casi termina, encuentro un pequeño tesoro. En un kiosko vecino a casa consigo un producto lactosado, genérico. No es exactamente leche–algo casi imposible de obtener—pero quizás valga la pena. Es posible que les guste a los niños. Dejo el local con dos botellas en mano y una gran sonrisa.</span></div>
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<img alt="Venezuela milk substitute" height="426" src="http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-diario-de-venezuela/img/003_venezueladiary.jpg" width="640" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Zerpa habla con otra compradora sobre dos cartones de leche que encuentran en un estante. Son los únicos y parecen estar caducados. La otra compradora se lleva uno, sólo en caso que estén equivocadas</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><i>Junio 14</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Busco pan de nuevo. Dado que es cada vez más difícil conseguir pan fresco–como tradicionalmente nos gusta a los venezolanos—decido comprar el industrial, empacado. Al mediodía, me acerco a un supermercado. No hay cola afuera. Mmm... Una vez dentro, entiendo por qué. Hay muy pocos productos en los estantes y el pan brilla por su ausencia. “El pan llegó temprano, señora”, me dice un empleado. “Ya se acabó”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Un poco más tarde voy a un centro comercial a pagar el servicio eléctrico. (Hago los pagos vía Internet desde mi casa, pero el servicio que recibo, al igual que para todos los caraqueños, tiene fallas). Los trabajadores de la eléctrica estatal están en huelga. No hay nadie que reciba mi pago. “Sólo es por hoy, señora”, me comenta una mujer joven. “Puede regresar mañana para pagar”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Paso por un supermercado cercano. Mi prioridad son vegetales y carne. Encuentro lo primero–plátanos, cebolla y papa—pero de la carne no hay ni las huellas. Para colmo pago casi el doble de lo que pagué sólo cinco meses atrás. De camino a la salida algo me llama la atención. Cerca de la entrada del local hay un mostrador separado de todos los demás. Contiene productos que escasean en Caracas, como atún enlatado, azúcar e insecticida. La gerencia ha tomado sus precauciones: se les pide a los clientes que paguen primero antes de siquiera tocar esta mercancía.</span></div>
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<img alt="lines in Venezuela store" height="426" src="http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-diario-de-venezuela/img/004_venezueladiary.jpg" width="640" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Repisas en esta panadería en el vecindario de Zerpa están surtidas de productos no básicos a precios estratosféricos.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><i>Junio 15</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Camino al trabajo, conduzco hasta el supermercado para ver si la cola es manejable y mirar qué hay. Imposible. Contrario a la norma desde hace una semana la policía municipal no cuida el local. En su lugar unos oficiales fuertemente armados de la unidad antisecuestro de la Guardia Nacional previenen cualquier alteración del orden público. Insólito. Continúo mi camino y voy a pagar la luz. De nuevo, sin éxito. La huelga terminó, pero los empleados comienzan a trabajar al mediodía.</span></div>
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En la cocina de Zerpa, un kilo de Harina P.A.N., la harina de maíz usada por los venezolanos para hacer arepas.</div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><i>Junio 17</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Sorpresa. Isaac, con la ayuda de un amigo de un amigo de su trabajo en una compañía de producción de comerciales para TV, compró 5 kilos de harina precocida de maíz. Es vital. Con esta harina se hacen las arepas, el plato básico de la dieta venezolana. Isaac pagó 1.500 bolívares por cada kilo, es decir ocho veces más el precio regulado por el gobierno. A pesar de eso, vale la pena. Nuestra reserva de “Harina Pan” estaba mermando. Ya reabastecidos podremos cambiar con familiares y amigos algo de harina por otro tipo de productos. (Por ejemplo, le daremos dos kilos a mi cuñada Raquel para compensarla por la leche que nos solía dar).</span></div>
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<img alt="Venezuela line" height="426" src="http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-diario-de-venezuela/img/006_venezueladiary.jpg" width="640" /></div>
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La fila del supermercado de su vecindario está tan larga, que Zerpa ni se molesta en tomar un puesto.</div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><i>Junio 25</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Voy al mercado de libre de verduras cerca de casa. Antes del amanecer del cada sábado los agricultores traen sus productos desde los alrededores de Caracas. Todo se vende a precio de mercado. Esto es técnicamente ilegal, pero se negocia sin ser sancionados. Comprar aquí es un lujo que muchos venezolanos no pueden darse. Soy afortunada. Un beneficio adicional es que los productores aceptan tarjetas de débito como forma de pago. Con una inflación fuera de control–estimaciones privadas indican que para 2016 se situará entre 200% y 1,500%–pagar con efectivo implica cargar fajos de billetes. No sólo es complicado sino extremadamente peligroso para un país donde el crimen está desatado (ocupa el tercer lugar mundial en tasa de homicidio).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Luego de escoger frutas, vegetales y carne, hago la cola para pagar. Empieza a lloviznar y luego llueve a cántaros. Y trae un problema. El sistema de Internet que conecta las terminales de cobro de las tarjetas de débito se cae. Años de desinversión han menoscabado la confiabilidad del sistema. Pasa media hora. Hay al menos 30 personas en cola. Algunos se quejan: de la chica que procesa la tarjeta (es muy lenta), de los bancos (son pésimos), y del país en general (la vida aquí es una cola infinita). Varias personas mayores se dan por vencidas. Dejan sus bolsas y se van. Unos minutos después, emulo sus pasos.</span></div>
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<img alt="shopping in Venezuela" height="426" src="http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-diario-de-venezuela/img/007_venezueladiary.jpg" width="640" /></div>
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En otro supermercado, Zerpa inspecciona una repisa especial con productos escasos vendidos a precios altos, como atún enlatado.</div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><i>Julio 1</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Son las 7 de la noche. Necesito recoger a los niños en mi carro y pasar por la panadería. Para ser honesta, estoy atemorizada. Las calles de mi urbanización son particularmente peligrosas tras el ocaso y tan sólo anoche tuve un penoso recordatorio cuando una mujer fue secuestrada a pocos metros de la panadería. Una patrulla de policía estaba cerca y de inmediato ocurrió un tiroteo. Un vecino, Franco, y su hijo de 13 años, quedaron atrapados dentro del local. Tuvieron que gatear hasta la cocina de la panadería para evadir los balas. Al final, la víctima fue liberada, uno de los secuestradores murió y sus tres cómplices se escaparon. Me enteré de ello la misma noche por el chat en Whatsapp que tenemos en el vecindario dedicado a la seguridad. (Mis amigos y yo estamos adictos a Whatsapp, nuestro principal medio para compartir recomendaciones en tiempo real sobre dónde encontrar productos escasos en la ciudad).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Así que cuando entro a la misma panadería, mis palpitaciones aumentan. Dentro, todo parece normal. La vida continúa. Hay una larga cola de gente esperando por el pan y otra para pagar. Algunos clientes disfrutan un café o una pizza. Y para mi sorpresa las colas avanzan rápido. Agarro mis dos “baguettes” o “canillas” (lo máximo permitido), un poco de jamón, queso, algunos dulces para mis hijos y salgo con prisa a casa. Pequeña victoria.</span></div>
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Zerpa sale del supermercado con sus compras.</div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><i>Julio 7</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Jueves. Es mi día para comprar productos regulados. Voy al supermercado a las 10 a.m. Unas 60 personas aguardan afuera en fila. Vienen de todas partes de la ciudad, principalmente de las zonas más humildes donde la comida es aún más escasa, para esperar en la cola. Nadie sabe nada, ni a qué hora comenzarán a vender los productos, ni cuáles serán ofrecidos si hay suerte. Nada. Sólo esperan, estoicamente, bajo el candente sol caribeño.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">“Esta es la cola de la esperanza”, me dice una mujer. “Ojalá tengan algo para vendernos.” Un poco de humor negro. Me río. Luego de un par de horas sin que la fila avance, me rindo. Abandono mi puesto y me voy.</span></div>
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Zerpa revisa la alacena de su casa donde guarda los productos para su familia, como atún, meriendas y leche en polvo.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-75219499043880502802016-07-18T05:40:00.001-07:002016-07-18T05:40:10.045-07:00Profound Changes in Store for Labor Market (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Working more years before retiring might not sound appealing to everyone. But it could be critical to the nation's future economic health.</div>
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The macroeconomic impact of population aging will depend significantly on how long people remain in the workforce as they age. That's because the decision on whether to continue working, or continuing to look for work, will affect the size of the overall labor force. In turn, the size of the labor force is a key ingredient in the economy's growth potential. Put in the simplest terms, the economy's long-term growth rate is the sum of the growth rate of labor employed plus the growth rate of the productivity of that labor.</div>
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For the moment, at least, the first part of that equation—labor force growth—doesn't look especially promising. Already slowing, the rate of labor force growth is projected to decline further as 77 million baby boomers continue moving into older age and retirement. The oldest boomers hit 62 in 2008 and turn 70 in 2016. As large numbers of aging workers retire, there is a comparatively smaller cohort of younger workers to replenish the labor force. (See chart 1.)</div>
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<svg height="400" style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" version="1.1" width="577" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><defs><clippath id="highcharts-1"><rect height="175" width="515" x="0" y="0"></rect></clippath></defs><rect class=" highcharts-background" fill="#FFFFFF" height="398" stroke-width="1" stroke="#CDCDCD" strokewidth="1" width="575" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><text style="color: #756a5b; fill: rgb(117, 106, 91); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; width: 527px;" x="10" y="345"><tspan>Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"></g><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"><path d="M 42 295.5 L 557 295.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 42 266.5 L 557 266.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 42 237.5 L 557 237.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 42 208.5 L 557 208.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 42 178.5 L 557 178.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 42 149.5 L 557 149.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 42 119.5 L 557 119.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"><path d="M 127.5 295 L 127.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 299.5 295 L 299.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 470.5 295 L 470.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 42 295.5 L 557 295.5" fill="none" stroke-width="1" stroke="#756A5C" visibility="visible" zindex="7"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"></g><g class="highcharts-series-group" zindex="3"><g class="highcharts-series highcharts-tracker" clip-path="url(#highcharts-1)" transform="translate(42,120) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"><rect fill="#99918f" height="6" rx="0" ry="0" width="28" x="38" y="112"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="8" rx="0" ry="0" width="28" x="209" y="118"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="25" rx="0" ry="0" width="28" x="381" y="118"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-markers" clip-path="none" transform="translate(42,120) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"></g><g class="highcharts-series highcharts-tracker" clip-path="url(#highcharts-1)" transform="translate(42,120) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"><rect fill="#104c8d" height="17" rx="0" ry="0" width="28" x="72" y="101"></rect><rect fill="#104c8d" height="2" rx="0" ry="0" width="28" x="244" y="118"></rect><rect fill="#104c8d" height="8" rx="0" ry="0" width="28" x="415" y="110"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-markers" clip-path="none" transform="translate(42,120) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"></g><g class="highcharts-series highcharts-tracker" clip-path="url(#highcharts-1)" transform="translate(42,120) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"><rect fill="#ba9963" height="94" rx="0" ry="0" width="28" x="106" y="24"></rect><rect fill="#ba9963" height="92" rx="0" ry="0" width="28" x="278" y="26"></rect><rect fill="#ba9963" height="39" rx="0" ry="0" width="28" x="450" y="79"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-markers" clip-path="none" transform="translate(42,120) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"></g></g><text class="highcharts-title" style="fill: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: bold; width: 461.6px;" text-anchor="start" x="10" y="25" zindex="4"><tspan>Chart 1</tspan><tspan dy="19" x="10">Seniority Rising</tspan></text><text class="highcharts-subtitle" style="color: #756a5c; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; width: 461.6px;" text-anchor="start" x="10" y="64" zindex="4"><tspan>Percent change in civilian labor force by age group for 10-year periods</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(42,120) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="6"><g transform="translate(37,85)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>3.0</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(205,126)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>-4.4</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(373,143)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>-13.1</tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(42,120) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="6"><g transform="translate(71,74)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>8.8</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(240,120)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>-1.3</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(414,83)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>3.9</tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(42,120) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="6"><g transform="translate(101,-3)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>48.0</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(273,-1)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>47.1</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(445,52)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>19.8</tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-legend" transform="translate(206,76)" zindex="7"><rect fill="#FFFFFF" height="28" rx="5" ry="5" stroke-width="1" stroke="#909090" strokewidth="1" visibility="visible" width="353" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><g zindex="1"><g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(8,3)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#99918f" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(111.86,3)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#104c8d" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(215.72,3)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#ba9963" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g></g></g></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 172px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="127.83333333333333" y="315">1994–2004</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 172px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="299.5" y="315">2004–14</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 172px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="471.16666666666663" y="315">2014–24</text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="300">-30</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="271">-15</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="242">0</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="213">15</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="183">30</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="154">45</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="125">60</text></g><path d="M 42 237 L 557 237" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="#666" zindex="10"></path><g class="highcharts-button" stroke-linecap="round" style="cursor: default;" transform="translate(494,10)"><rect fill="white" height="28" rx="2" ry="2" stroke-width="1" stroke="none" strokewidth="1" width="73" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><path d="M 6 6.5 L 20 6.5 M 6 11.5 L 20 11.5 M 6 16.5 L 20 16.5" fill="#E0E0E0" stroke-width="3" stroke="#666" zindex="1"></path><text style="fill: black;" x="30" y="17" zindex="1">Export</text></g></svg><div class="highcharts-legend" style="left: 206px; position: absolute; top: 76px;">
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<span style="color: #756a5c; cursor: pointer; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; left: 25px; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 2px; position: absolute; top: 3px; white-space: nowrap;" zindex="2">25–54</span></div>
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<span style="color: #756a5c; cursor: pointer; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; left: 25px; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 2px; position: absolute; top: 3px; white-space: nowrap;" zindex="2">55 and older</span></div>
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<img alt="Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta" height="26" src="https://www.frbatlanta.org/~/media/images/logos/atlanta-fed-logo-horizontal-high-resolution-gray.png" style="border: 0px; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="235" /></div>
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<h5 class="mtl" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Roboto Condensed", sans-serif; font-size: 21px; margin: 0px 0px -20px;">
Aging population a big reason labor force growth is already slowing</h5>
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The demographic erosion of the labor force from an aging population is powerful and appears unstoppable, absent a significant change such as a large influx of immigrants or a steep decline in the rate of retirement.</div>
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Several organizations, including the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), predict the labor force will expand about 0.5 to 0.6 percent a year on average between now and 2050. That's less than a third of the annual growth rate of 1.7 percent between 1970 and 2007. That slowdown is largely the result of an aging population, economists say.</div>
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Indeed, the rate of labor force growth has already slowed. That's partly because weak job prospects during the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 pushed some discouraged job seekers out of the labor force entirely. To be counted as part of the nation's labor force, one must be working or seeking a job. While cyclical economic factors played a part, the dominant longer-term issue of population aging has accounted for more than half of the decline in labor force participation since 2007, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's <a href="https://frbatlanta.org/chcs.aspx" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;">Center for Human Capital Studies</a>.</div>
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An aging population is not only slowing the growth of the nation's pool of workers. It could also be constraining wages. <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2016/march/slow-wage-growth-and-the-labor-market/?utm_source=frbsf-home-economic-letter-title&utm_medium=frbsf&utm_campaign=economic-letter" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;">Research published in March</a> by San Francisco Fed economists Mary C. Daly, Bart Hobijn, and Benjamin Pyle suggests that since the Great Recession, aging is partially responsible for slow growth in average wages.</div>
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Rising pay has been a key missing ingredient amid otherwise healthy labor market indicators during the recovery from the recession. There's no consensus explanation among economists of why growth in average wages has lagged even as unemployment has declined. But according to the new San Francisco Fed research, as higher-earning baby boomers have retired, lower-wage younger workers have taken new full-time jobs. So as lower-paid workers move into the workforce, and higher-paid baby boomers retire, those two changes together have suppressed measures of growth in wages.</div>
<h5 style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Roboto Condensed", sans-serif; font-size: 21px; margin: 0px 0px -20px; text-align: justify;">
Longer working lives could boost labor force</h5>
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One important factor could stem at least some of the erosion of labor force growth: longer working lives.</div>
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Labor economists concur that there is untapped capacity for work among older Americans. For one, life expectancy has increased, and people have become generally healthier in their later years. A 67-year-old in 2007 had about the same mortality rates as a 60-year-old in 1977, according to <a href="http://www.nap.edu/read/13465/chapter/1#xiii" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;"><em>Aging and the Macroeconomy</em></a>, a 2012 book compiled by the National Research Council (NRC). Plus, most jobs today are not as physically demanding as they once were, so more older people can perform them.</div>
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Careers are already lengthening. An almost 50-year trend toward earlier retirement reversed in the mid-to-late 1990s. From 1950 through 1995, the labor force participation rate of men 55 and older dropped from nearly 70 percent to about 38 percent, according to <em>Aging and the Macroeconomy</em>. As more men began retiring later, the participation rate for men 55 and older has since moved back up to 46 percent, though it has flattened and dipped a bit in the past couple of years, the BLS reports. (See chart 2 and see sidebar, "Retirement as We Know It Is a Modern Concept.")</div>
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468.75 143 L 476.25 143.5 L 483.75 141 L 491.25 142.5 L 498.75 145.5 L 506.25 145.5 L 516.25 145.5" fill="none" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="22" stroke="rgba(192,192,192,0.0001)" visibility="visible" zindex="2"></path></g><g class="highcharts-markers highcharts-tracker" clip-path="url(#highcharts-4)" transform="translate(47,70) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"></g></g><text class="highcharts-title" style="fill: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: bold; width: 513px;" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="25" zindex="4"><tspan>Chart 2</tspan><tspan dy="19" x="15">Labor Force Participation Rate, Men 55 and Over</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 68px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="50.75" y="315">1948</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 68px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="125.75" y="315">1958</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 68px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="200.75" y="315">1968</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 68px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="275.75" y="315">1978</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 68px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="350.75" y="315">1988</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 68px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="425.75" y="315">1998</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 68px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="500.75" y="315">2008</text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="32" y="299">30%</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="32" y="274">35%</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="32" y="249">40%</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="32" y="224">45%</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="32" y="199">50%</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="32" y="174">55%</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="32" y="149">60%</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="32" y="124">65%</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="32" y="99">70%</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="32" y="74">75%</text></g><g class="highcharts-tooltip" style="cursor: default; padding: 0; white-space: nowrap;" transform="translate(0,-9999)" zindex="8"><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 13.5 0.5 C 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 3.5 L 16.5 13.5 C 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 13.5 16.5 L 3.5 16.5 C 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 13.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.049999999999999996" stroke-width="5" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 13.5 0.5 C 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 3.5 L 16.5 13.5 C 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 13.5 16.5 L 3.5 16.5 C 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 13.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.09999999999999999" stroke-width="3" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 13.5 0.5 C 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 3.5 L 16.5 13.5 C 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 13.5 16.5 L 3.5 16.5 C 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 13.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 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<strong>Retirement as We Know It Is a Modern Concept</strong></h4>
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It's clear there are more older workers—partly because there are more older people in the population, and partly because of a higher rate of labor force participation. The number of employed wage and salary workers age 65 and older has more than doubled in the 21st century, from 2.97 million in 2000 to 6.41 million in 2015, according to the BLS. Nearly two-thirds of those older employees are working full-time, up from less than half in 2000. (See chart 3.)</div>
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<svg height="400" style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" version="1.1" width="577" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><defs><clippath id="highcharts-7"><rect height="165" width="525" x="0" y="0"></rect></clippath></defs><rect class=" highcharts-background" fill="#FFFFFF" height="398" stroke-width="1" stroke="#CDCDCD" strokewidth="1" width="575" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><text style="color: #756a5b; fill: rgb(117, 106, 91); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; width: 527px;" x="10" y="345"><tspan>Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"></g><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"><path d="M 32 285.5 L 557 285.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 32 261.5 L 557 261.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 32 238.5 L 557 238.5" fill="none" 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sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; width: 461.6px;" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="64" zindex="4"><tspan>Employed wage and salary workers, 65 and over, in millions</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-legend" transform="translate(321,76)" zindex="7"><rect fill="#FFFFFF" height="28" rx="5" ry="5" stroke-width="1" stroke="#909090" strokewidth="1" visibility="visible" width="237" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><g zindex="1"><g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(8,3)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#99918f" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(123.4,3)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#104c8d" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g></g></g></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 51.23467712474619 301)" x="51.23467712474619" y="301"><tspan>2000</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 84.04717712474618 301)" x="84.04717712474618" y="301"><tspan>2001</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 116.85967712474618 301)" x="116.85967712474618" y="301"><tspan>2002</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 149.67217712474618 301)" x="149.67217712474618" y="301"><tspan>2003</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 182.48467712474618 301)" x="182.48467712474618" y="301"><tspan>2004</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 215.29717712474618 301)" x="215.29717712474618" y="301"><tspan>2005</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 248.10967712474618 301)" x="248.10967712474618" y="301"><tspan>2006</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 280.9221771247462 301)" x="280.9221771247462" y="301"><tspan>2007</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 313.7346771247462 301)" x="313.7346771247462" y="301"><tspan>2008</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 346.5471771247462 301)" x="346.5471771247462" y="301"><tspan>2009</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 379.3596771247462 301)" x="379.3596771247462" y="301"><tspan>2010</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 412.1721771247462 301)" x="412.1721771247462" y="301"><tspan>2011</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 444.9846771247462 301)" x="444.9846771247462" y="301"><tspan>2012</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 477.7971771247462 301)" x="477.7971771247462" y="301"><tspan>2013</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 510.6096771247462 301)" x="510.6096771247462" y="301"><tspan>2014</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 400px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 543.4221771247462 301)" x="543.4221771247462" y="301"><tspan>2015</tspan></text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="17" y="290">0</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="17" y="266">1</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="17" y="243">2</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="17" y="219">3</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="17" y="196">4</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="17" y="172">5</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="17" y="149">6</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="17" y="125">7</text></g><g class="highcharts-tooltip" opacity="0" style="cursor: default; padding: 0; white-space: nowrap;" transform="translate(279,-9999)" visibility="visible" zindex="8"><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 84.5 0.5 C 87.5 0.5 87.5 0.5 87.5 3.5 L 87.5 59.5 C 87.5 62.5 87.5 62.5 84.5 62.5 L 3.5 62.5 C 0.5 62.5 0.5 62.5 0.5 59.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="62" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.049999999999999996" stroke-width="5" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="87"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 84.5 0.5 C 87.5 0.5 87.5 0.5 87.5 3.5 L 87.5 59.5 C 87.5 62.5 87.5 62.5 84.5 62.5 L 3.5 62.5 C 0.5 62.5 0.5 62.5 0.5 59.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="62" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.09999999999999999" stroke-width="3" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="87"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 84.5 0.5 C 87.5 0.5 87.5 0.5 87.5 3.5 L 87.5 59.5 C 87.5 62.5 87.5 62.5 84.5 62.5 L 3.5 62.5 C 0.5 62.5 0.5 62.5 0.5 59.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="62" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.15" stroke-width="1" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="87"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 84.5 0.5 C 87.5 0.5 87.5 0.5 87.5 3.5 L 87.5 59.5 C 87.5 62.5 87.5 62.5 84.5 62.5 L 3.5 62.5 C 0.5 62.5 0.5 62.5 0.5 59.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="rgba(249, 249, 249, .85)" stroke-width="1" stroke="#99918f"></path><text style="color: #333333; fill: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;" x="8" y="20" zindex="1"><tspan style="font-size: 14px;">2010</tspan><tspan dy="15" style="fill: #99918f; font-weight: bold;" x="8">Workers</tspan><tspan dx="0">: 4.7</tspan><tspan dy="15" style="fill: #104c8d; font-weight: bold;" x="8">Full-time</tspan><tspan dx="0">: 2.7</tspan></text></g><g class="highcharts-button" stroke-linecap="round" style="cursor: default;" transform="translate(494,10)"><rect fill="white" height="28" rx="2" ry="2" stroke-width="1" stroke="none" strokewidth="1" width="73" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><path d="M 6 6.5 L 20 6.5 M 6 11.5 L 20 11.5 M 6 16.5 L 20 16.5" fill="#E0E0E0" stroke-width="3" stroke="#666" zindex="1"></path><text style="fill: black;" x="30" y="17" zindex="1">Export</text></g></svg><div class="highcharts-legend" style="left: 321px; position: absolute; top: 76px;">
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<img alt="Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta" height="26" src="https://www.frbatlanta.org/~/media/images/logos/atlanta-fed-logo-horizontal-high-resolution-gray.png" style="border: 0px; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="235" /></div>
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It appears the shift toward longer working lives will last. Even as overall labor force participation is projected to keep falling, the participation of older people is widely expected to resume climbing. (See infographic.)</div>
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<img alt="infographic of labor force participation rate" src="https://frbatlanta.org/-/media/Images/economy-matters/annual-report/2015/profound-changes-in-store-for-labor-market/infographic-labor-force-participation.png" style="border: 0px; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle; width: 589px;" /></div>
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It's not completely clear why older people began working longer in the 1990s, according to many experts including Atlanta Fed economists Julie Hotchkiss, Toni Braun, and Karen Kopecky. There's likely a combination of reasons. Some elderly people keep working for financial reasons, while others choose to work because they are healthy enough and simply want to stay busy. What's more, the idea of "phased retirement," as opposed to abruptly walking away from work entirely, is becoming more common in the United States and other countries, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's<a href="http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/2114011e.pdf?expires=1457726983&id=id&accname=ocid41015181&checksum=6E353F80F5DA86F0680364AA447EAA32" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;">OECD Pensions Outlook 2014.</a> Allowing workers and employers more flexibility to gradually phase in retirement is important to promote longer working lives, according to the OECD and other researchers.</div>
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Changes in financial incentives can affect employment decisions. For example, certain tax rules and provisions in pension plans and retiree health insurance plans encourage earlier retirement and make it more costly for employers to keep older workers on the payroll. An extensive body of research indicates that average retirement age is strongly influenced by early retirement incentives in plan provisions. For instance, public pension plans in many countries do not allow those who delay retirement to collect additional annual benefits to offset those they would have collected had they retired sooner. In the United States, however, Social Security is more "actuarially fair," as researchers term it, because if you retire later—say, at 67 instead of the current earliest eligibility age of 62—you collect more benefits each year than if you begin collecting benefits at 62.</div>
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<img alt="illustration of a time clock with a hand punching a card" class="frameImg mts" height="222" src="https://frbatlanta.org/-/media/Images/economy-matters/annual-report/2015/profound-changes-in-store-for-labor-market/illustration-of-time-clock.png" style="border: 0px; float: left; height: auto; margin-right: 1.5em; margin-top: 5px !important; max-width: 100%; text-align: justify; vertical-align: middle; zoom: 1;" width="222" /><div class="mtn" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; text-align: justify;">
Defined-benefit pension plans are another story. Traditional pension plans are much less common in the private sector than they used to be, but are still widespread in the public sector. In those plans, benefits generally do not go up enough to make it worthwhile to delay retirement, according to the NRC. Thus, the advent of personal defined-contribution plans, such as 401(k)s in the 1980s, is probably one reason why older people began staying in the workforce longer in the mid-1990s, the NRC says in<em>Aging and the Macroeconomy</em>.</div>
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Another disincentive to work at older ages is a higher effective tax rate. The Social Security and Medicare payroll tax for those 60 and over is often a "pure tax" on work because older workers have often already put in the 35 years that count toward Social Security benefits, according to <a href="http://www.nber.org/chapters/c12222.pdf" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;">a 2011 paper</a> by economists Gopi Shah Goda, John B. Shoven, and Sita Nataraj Slavov at Stanford University and the American Enterprise Institute. Therefore, depending on their pay, older workers may earn no incremental Social Security or Medicare benefits for staying in the workforce longer.</div>
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Employer-provided health benefits also create an implicit tax for many workers age 65 and over. If they receive health insurance from an employer with more than 20 employees, then Medicare doesn't cover the workers. This policy is known as "Medicare as a secondary payer." Under such circumstances, employees, along with their employer, pay for health insurance even though those workers are otherwise eligible for Medicare, according to the NRC. "This creates another large gap between the employer's cost of employing an older worker and the employee's net wage," says the NRC's <em>Aging and the Macroeconomy</em>.</div>
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Changing tax, Medicare policies would equate to a pay raise for older workers</h5>
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Removing these extra costs would encourage workers to work longer because they would effectively get a pay raise. At the same time, employers' costs of employing older workers would also fall. Some economists have proposed creating a new category of older workers who, having paid their share of Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes over 35 or 40 years, would no longer be subject to the tax.</div>
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The NRC book suggests eliminating the "Medicare as a secondary payer" policy by simply granting Medicare benefits to workers 65 and over regardless of whether their employer provides a health plan. That way, neither the worker nor the employer would pay for private health coverage. The worker would theoretically also see a significant increase in net wages. While these ideas might help to increase labor force participation among older citizens, thus reducing the number of people supported by social insurance, the measures might also worsen the financial positions of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.</div>
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Some European countries have had success with incentives aimed at encouraging workers to retire later. While the labor force participation rate of 55- to 64-year-olds in the United States leveled off around 2007 after rising over the prior couple of decades, the participation rate of this group continued climbing in several euro area nations. In the past several years, European nations raised retirement ages for pension benefits by an average of about two years and restricted early retirement eligibility. Also, Germany in the mid-2000s began instituting policy incentives for hiring older workers.</div>
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Clearly, American policymakers face difficult choices when it comes to aging and the course of the labor force and, more broadly, the macroeconomy.</div>
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The role of immigration in boosting labor force growth</h5>
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Although a potentially effective tool for boosting the labor force, immigration policy is particularly contentious. An increase in future immigration would effectively be an increase in the projected labor force, according to the BLS. Recent history supports that view. From 1996 to 2014, according to <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/forbrn.pdf" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;">BLS figures</a>, the nation's labor force increased by about 21.9 million people. Even though foreign-born workers are only a small share of the nation's labor force, they accounted for <a href="http://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2013/foreign-born/" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;">more than half of the <em>increase</em></a> in the labor force between 1996 and 2014.</div>
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<img alt="illustration of passport, stamp, and coin" class="frameImgExt mts" height="222" src="https://frbatlanta.org/-/media/Images/economy-matters/annual-report/2015/profound-changes-in-store-for-labor-market/illustration-of-passport.png" style="border: 0px; float: right; height: auto; margin-left: 1.5em; margin-top: 5px !important; max-width: 100%; text-align: justify; vertical-align: middle;" width="222" /><div class="mtn" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; text-align: justify;">
Historically, immigration responds to labor shortages. In a <a href="https://f6149df5-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/federicomandelmanhomepage/PaperImmRem.JME.pdf?attachauth=ANoY7cpJ4y9H849ZXJCX5dhPx23JTVO0O3znqMFVQNCXYo_TBfec-nXAh-O9fOIA9L25EXR9wBh01kX-l8KLnQvf30aZAy_txjrOYERWgq24l_g70S2K5GeqL1JJJgAHnIBSkAG0Wf9LtViNTwbPrFYALPGKZnr3h2jjh-nZgFo_sDTtn1eLhruaxhLEtE0nncAB2aSs20_llXJ6EXb2WAzzAK7QuQVaoDB_id39DZ1OO8Bko7Edf-Y%3D&attredirects=1" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;">2012 paper</a>, economists Federico Mandelman of the Atlanta Fed and Andrei Zlate of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors wrote that as business conditions in the United States improved, immigration from Mexico in particular increased. Many of the foreign-born workers then returned to their home country when job opportunities in the United States dried up, and came back again when jobs were plentiful.</div>
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However, that pattern has changed. Since the U.S. government stepped up border enforcement in 2000, many immigrant workers have chosen to remain in America even during economic downturns. They don't want to risk going home and then not being able to return to the States, according to Mandelman and Zlate.</div>
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One reason immigration is a potentially potent antidote to slow labor force growth is that immigrants tend to be young. In 2012, for example, 76 percent of foreign-born members of the labor force were between the ages of 25 and 54, compared to 63 percent of the native-born labor force, the BLS reports. Forecasting immigration, and thus its future impact on the labor force, is fraught with uncertainty, as the Congressional Budget Office notes. Immigration numbers have fluctuated for a long time. Averaged over five-year periods, net annual immigration has ranged from nearly seven to fewer than two immigrants per 1,000 people in the U.S. population, according to the CBO's <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/publication/50250" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;">2015 Long Term Budget Outlook</a>. Since 1970, the number of people obtaining lawful permanent resident status in the country has ranged from 373,000 in 1970 to 1.8 million in 1991, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/publication/yearbook-2013" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;">2013 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics</a>. (See chart 4.) While warning of a "great deal of uncertainty" involved in long-range predictions, the CBO projects net annual immigration of 1.2 million people in 2026 and 1.3 million in 2040. That would not amount to a huge increase over recent levels.</div>
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class="highcharts-markers highcharts-tracker" clip-path="url(#highcharts-10)" transform="translate(42,90) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"><path d="M 499.188596491228 92.1309375 C 507.180596491228 92.1309375 507.180596491228 104.1309375 499.188596491228 104.1309375 C 491.196596491228 104.1309375 491.196596491228 92.1309375 499.188596491228 92.1309375 Z" fill="#99918f" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" visibility="hidden"></path></g></g><text class="highcharts-title" style="fill: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: bold; width: 513px;" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="25" zindex="4"><tspan>Chart 4</tspan><tspan dy="19" x="15">Immigration Ebbs and Flows</tspan></text><text class="highcharts-subtitle" style="color: #756a5c; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; width: 490.45px;" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="64" zindex="4"><tspan>Millions of persons obtaining lawful permanent resident status, 1900-2013</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 81px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="44.25877192982456" y="315">1900</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 81px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="134.609649122807" y="315">1920</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 81px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="224.96052631578945" y="315">1940</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 81px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="315.3114035087719" y="315">1960</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 81px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="405.66228070175436" y="315">1980</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 81px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="496.01315789473676" y="315">2000</text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="300">0.0</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="249">0.5</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="198">1.0</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="146">1.5</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="27" y="95">2.0</text></g><g class="highcharts-tooltip" opacity="0" style="cursor: default; padding: 0; white-space: nowrap;" transform="translate(517,-9999)" visibility="visible" zindex="8"><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 44.5 0.5 C 47.5 0.5 47.5 0.5 47.5 3.5 L 47.5 47.5 C 47.5 50.5 47.5 50.5 44.5 50.5 L 29.5 50.5 23.5 56.5 17.5 50.5 3.5 50.5 C 0.5 50.5 0.5 50.5 0.5 47.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="50" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.049999999999999996" stroke-width="5" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="47"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 44.5 0.5 C 47.5 0.5 47.5 0.5 47.5 3.5 L 47.5 47.5 C 47.5 50.5 47.5 50.5 44.5 50.5 L 29.5 50.5 23.5 56.5 17.5 50.5 3.5 50.5 C 0.5 50.5 0.5 50.5 0.5 47.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="50" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.09999999999999999" stroke-width="3" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="47"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 44.5 0.5 C 47.5 0.5 47.5 0.5 47.5 3.5 L 47.5 47.5 C 47.5 50.5 47.5 50.5 44.5 50.5 L 29.5 50.5 23.5 56.5 17.5 50.5 3.5 50.5 C 0.5 50.5 0.5 50.5 0.5 47.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="50" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.15" stroke-width="1" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="47"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 44.5 0.5 C 47.5 0.5 47.5 0.5 47.5 3.5 L 47.5 47.5 C 47.5 50.5 47.5 50.5 44.5 50.5 L 29.5 50.5 23.5 56.5 17.5 50.5 3.5 50.5 C 0.5 50.5 0.5 50.5 0.5 47.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="rgba(249, 249, 249, .85)" stroke-width="1" stroke="#99918f"></path><text style="color: #333333; fill: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;" x="8" y="20" zindex="1"><tspan style="font-size: 14px;">2010</tspan><tspan dy="17" style="font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold;" x="8">1.0</tspan></text></g><g class="highcharts-button" stroke-linecap="round" style="cursor: default;" transform="translate(494,10)"><rect fill="white" height="28" rx="2" ry="2" stroke-width="1" stroke="none" strokewidth="1" width="73" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><path d="M 6 6.5 L 20 6.5 M 6 11.5 L 20 11.5 M 6 16.5 L 20 16.5" fill="#E0E0E0" stroke-width="3" stroke="#666" zindex="1"></path><text style="fill: black;" x="30" y="17" zindex="1">Export</text></g></svg><span style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; left: 1px; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; position: absolute; top: 360px; white-space: nowrap;"><div style="background-color: #efefef; height: 30px; padding: 8px 0px 0px 8px; text-align: justify; width: 566px; z-index: 3;">
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Potential macroeconomic effects</h5>
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The future population of older Americans is going to grow a lot. That much is clear. Immigration would help mitigate the effect of an aging population on labor force growth. But future levels of immigration are highly uncertain. Also subject to some uncertainty is the future rate of labor force participation of older workers. Although the trend toward greater participation has actually flattened in the last few years, the BLS projects it will increase over the next decade. If this happens, longer working lives would help fuel labor force growth and, in turn, boost the macroeconomy. An increase in the number of older workers would also lower the number of retirees that workers help to support.</div>
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If older workers indeed raise their labor force participation rate, tax revenues would also rise, which could strengthen funding for public old-age support programs such as Social Security and Medicare. If longer working lives lessen the burden on elderly support programs, they might also release more resources to fund other public priorities, including education of the young.</div>
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Government policy on retirement and work incentives will have a significant effect on the future growth of the labor force. Policy decisions will also affect the degree to which immigration supports labor force growth.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-72521845923142104862016-07-15T07:09:00.000-07:002016-07-15T07:09:13.577-07:00Fiscal Math Is Daunting <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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It's simple arithmetic, really. Thanks to increasing life expectancy and falling fertility rates, the share of older Americans is on the rise—and the number of working-age people is declining. As a result, the United States and many other countries are experiencing large increases in the old-age dependency ratio.</div>
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Americans 65 and older are disproportionately supported by social insurance programs like Social Security (Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance, or OASDI), Medicare, Medicaid, and Supplementary Security Income (SSI). In the coming years, this oldest segment of the population is going to grow dramatically, as the working-age segment of the country, the people who mostly fund these programs through payroll and income taxes, will dwindle by comparison.</div>
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That's problematic, as it upsets the "support ratio," or, put another way, the old-age dependency ratio. The balance of the working-age population and the elderly—the old-age dependency ratio—is a key gauge of a country's ability to sustain old-age social insurance programs, points out Karen Kopecky, an Atlanta Fed research economist and associate policy adviser, who has studied the fiscal and economic effects of aging in the United States.</div>
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In 2010, there were 4.8 workers for each retiree. However, as the baby boomers—those born between about 1946 and 1964—age, this number will decline to just 2.7 by 2040, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections. (See chart 1.)</div>
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stroke="rgba(192,192,192,0.0001)" visibility="visible" zindex="2"></path></g><g class="highcharts-markers highcharts-tracker" clip-path="url(#highcharts-2)" transform="translate(39,70) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"></g></g><text class="highcharts-title" style="fill: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: bold; width: 536px;" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="25" zindex="4"><tspan>Chart 1</tspan><tspan dy="19" x="15">Number of working-age people for each person 65 and over</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="44.40196078431373" y="315">1940</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="93.5106951871658" y="315">1950</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="142.61942959001783" y="315">1960</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="191.7281639928699" y="315">1970</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="240.83689839572196" y="315">1980</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="289.945632798574" y="315">1990</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="339.0543672014261" y="315">2000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="388.16310160427815" y="315">2010</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="437.27183600713016" y="315">2020</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="486.3805704099822" y="315">2030</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="535.4893048128342" y="315">2040</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="576" y="315">2050</text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="24" y="300">0</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="24" y="278">1</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: 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The math is daunting. Eventually either social insurance benefits must decline or taxes must increase, or some combination of both, according to Toni Braun, Atlanta Fed Research economist and senior adviser.</div>
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"This increase in fiscal burdens is one of the key macroeconomic effects of an aging population," Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist James Poterba writes in a 2014 research paper.</div>
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Aging to be the biggest driver of federal spending</h5>
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Government transfers, or benefits, to retirees are large and increase with age. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reports that in 2006, the most recent year data are available, the 15 percent of U.S. households headed by someone 65 or older received more than 60 percent of net federal transfers, or government payments minus taxes paid. (See the infographic and charts 2 and 3.)</div>
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<svg height="600" style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" version="1.1" width="600" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><defs><clippath id="highcharts-5"><rect height="359" width="496" x="0" y="0"></rect></clippath></defs><rect class=" highcharts-background" fill="#FFFFFF" height="598" stroke-width="1" stroke="#CDCDCD" strokewidth="1" width="598" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><text style="color: #756a5b; fill: rgb(117, 106, 91); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; width: 550px;" x="10" y="550"><tspan>Source: Gretchen Donehower, National Transfer Accounts Project (www.ntaccounts.org)</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"></g><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"><path d="M 94 485.5 L 590 485.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 94 413.5 L 590 413.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" 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485 L 520.5 495" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 548.5 485 L 548.5 495" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 575.5 485 L 575.5 495" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><text class=" highcharts-xaxis-title" style="color: #756a5c; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" visibility="visible" x="342" y="532.5269119345812" zindex="7">Age</text><path d="M 94 485 L 590 485" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="#756A5C" visibility="visible" zindex="7"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"><text class=" highcharts-yaxis-title" style="color: #756a5c; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(270 24 305)" visibility="visible" x="24" y="305" zindex="7"><tspan>Total dollars paid</tspan></text></g><g 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font-weight: bold; width: 536px;" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="25" zindex="4"><tspan>Chart 2</tspan><tspan dy="19" x="15">Per capita taxes and social contributions paid by age, 2011</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-legend" transform="translate(25,65)" zindex="7"><rect fill="#FFFFFF" height="46" rx="5" ry="5" stroke-width="1" stroke="#909090" strokewidth="1" visibility="visible" width="487" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><g zindex="1"><g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(8,3)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#99918f" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(158,3)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#104c8d" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(308,3)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#ba9963" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(8,21)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#f37832" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(158,21)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#8b4823" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g></g></g></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 110.60620490252396 501)" x="110.60620490252396" y="501"><tspan>0</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 138.16176045807953 501)" x="138.16176045807953" y="501"><tspan>5</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 165.71731601363507 501)" x="165.71731601363507" y="501"><tspan>10</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 193.27287156919064 501)" x="193.27287156919064" y="501"><tspan>15</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 220.82842712474618 501)" x="220.82842712474618" y="501"><tspan>20</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 248.38398268030173 501)" x="248.38398268030173" y="501"><tspan>25</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 275.9395382358573 501)" x="275.9395382358573" y="501"><tspan>30</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 303.4950937914129 501)" x="303.4950937914129" y="501"><tspan>35</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 331.05064934696844 501)" x="331.05064934696844" y="501"><tspan>40</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 358.606204902524 501)" x="358.606204902524" y="501"><tspan>45</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 386.1617604580795 501)" x="386.1617604580795" y="501"><tspan>50</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 413.7173160136351 501)" x="413.7173160136351" y="501"><tspan>55</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 441.27287156919067 501)" x="441.27287156919067" y="501"><tspan>60</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 468.8284271247462 501)" x="468.8284271247462" y="501"><tspan>65</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 496.3839826803018 501)" x="496.3839826803018" y="501"><tspan>70</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 523.9395382358573 501)" x="523.9395382358573" y="501"><tspan>75</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 551.495093791413 501)" x="551.495093791413" y="501"><tspan>80-84</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 579.0506493469684 501)" x="579.0506493469684" y="501"><tspan>*85+</tspan></text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="490">$0</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="418">$5,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="346">$10,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="274">$15,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="202">$20,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="130">$25,000</text></g><g class="highcharts-tooltip" opacity="0" style="cursor: default; padding: 0; white-space: nowrap;" transform="translate(279,-9999)" visibility="visible" zindex="8"><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 95.5 0.5 C 98.5 0.5 98.5 0.5 98.5 3.5 L 98.5 46.5 C 98.5 49.5 98.5 49.5 95.5 49.5 L 54.5 49.5 48.5 55.5 42.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="49" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.049999999999999996" stroke-width="5" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="98"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 95.5 0.5 C 98.5 0.5 98.5 0.5 98.5 3.5 L 98.5 46.5 C 98.5 49.5 98.5 49.5 95.5 49.5 L 54.5 49.5 48.5 55.5 42.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="49" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.09999999999999999" stroke-width="3" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="98"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 95.5 0.5 C 98.5 0.5 98.5 0.5 98.5 3.5 L 98.5 46.5 C 98.5 49.5 98.5 49.5 95.5 49.5 L 54.5 49.5 48.5 55.5 42.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="49" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.15" stroke-width="1" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="98"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 95.5 0.5 C 98.5 0.5 98.5 0.5 98.5 3.5 L 98.5 46.5 C 98.5 49.5 98.5 49.5 95.5 49.5 L 54.5 49.5 48.5 55.5 42.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="rgba(249, 249, 249, .85)" stroke-width="1" stroke="#99918f"></path><text style="color: #333333; fill: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;" x="8" y="20" zindex="1"><tspan style="font-size: 16px;">Income Tax</tspan><tspan dy="15" x="8">40:</tspan></text></g></svg> <tspan dx="0" style="font-weight: bold;">$7,608.2</tspan><g class="highcharts-button" stroke-linecap="round" style="cursor: default;" transform="translate(517,10)"><rect fill="white" height="28" rx="2" ry="2" stroke-width="1" stroke="none" strokewidth="1" width="73" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><path d="M 6 6.5 L 20 6.5 M 6 11.5 L 20 11.5 M 6 16.5 L 20 16.5" fill="#E0E0E0" stroke-width="3" stroke="#666" zindex="1"></path><text style="fill: black;" x="30" y="17" zindex="1">Export</text></g><div class="highcharts-legend" style="left: 25px; opacity: 0.75; position: absolute; top: 65px;">
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<span style="color: #756a5c; cursor: pointer; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; left: 25px; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 2px; position: absolute; top: 3px; white-space: nowrap;" zindex="2">Payroll Tax (FICA)</span></div>
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<div class="highcharts-legend-item" style="left: 158px; position: absolute; top: 21px;">
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<img alt="Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta" height="26" src="https://www.frbatlanta.org/~/media/images/logos/atlanta-fed-logo-horizontal-high-resolution-gray.png" style="border: 0px; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="235" /></div>
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<div class="economyMattersChartLarge" data-highcharts-chart="2" id="container_BenefitsConsolidated" style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; height: 600px; line-height: 19.5px; margin: 20px auto; width: 600px;">
<div class="highcharts-container" id="highcharts-8" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); height: 600px; line-height: normal; overflow: hidden; position: relative; width: 600px; z-index: 0;">
<svg height="600" style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" version="1.1" width="600" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><defs><clippath id="highcharts-9"><rect height="319" width="496" x="0" y="0"></rect></clippath></defs><rect class=" highcharts-background" fill="#FFFFFF" height="598" stroke-width="1" stroke="#CDCDCD" strokewidth="1" width="598" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><text style="color: #756a5b; fill: rgb(117, 106, 91); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; width: 550px;" x="10" y="525"><tspan>*Slope rises dramatically because numbers represent all people 85 and older and not individuals of a single age.</tspan><tspan dy="14" x="10">Source: Gretchen Donehower, National Transfer Accounts Project (www.ntaaccounts.org)</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"></g><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"><path d="M 94 455.5 L 590 455.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" 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zindex="1"></path><path d="M 94 134.5 L 590 134.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"><path d="M 107.5 455 L 107.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 134.5 455 L 134.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 162.5 455 L 162.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 189.5 455 L 189.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 217.5 455 L 217.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 245.5 455 L 245.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 272.5 455 L 272.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 300.5 455 L 300.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 327.5 455 L 327.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 355.5 455 L 355.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 382.5 455 L 382.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 410.5 455 L 410.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 437.5 455 L 437.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 465.5 455 L 465.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 493.5 455 L 493.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 520.5 455 L 520.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 548.5 455 L 548.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 575.5 455 L 575.5 465" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><text class=" highcharts-xaxis-title" style="color: #756a5c; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" visibility="visible" x="342" y="504.64823227814077" zindex="7">Age</text><path d="M 94 455 L 590 455" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="#756A5C" visibility="visible" zindex="7"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"><text class=" highcharts-yaxis-title" style="color: #756a5c; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(270 24 295)" visibility="visible" x="24" y="295" zindex="7"><tspan>Total benefits received</tspan></text></g><g class="highcharts-series-group" zindex="3"><g class="highcharts-series" clip-path="url(#highcharts-9)" transform="translate(94,135) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"><path d="M 13.777777777777779 253.138304 L 41.333333333333336 215.37721599999998 L 68.88888888888889 202.96256 L 96.44444444444446 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399.5555555555556 266.030528 L 427.11111111111114 269.086976 L 454.6666666666667 266.708928 L 482.22222222222223 265.476608 L 492.22222222222223 265.476608" fill="none" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="21" stroke="rgba(192,192,192,0.0001)" visibility="visible" zindex="2"></path></g><g class="highcharts-markers highcharts-tracker" clip-path="url(#highcharts-10)" transform="translate(94,135) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"></g></g><text class="highcharts-title" style="fill: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: bold; width: 536px;" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="25" zindex="4"><tspan>Chart 3</tspan><tspan dy="19" x="15">Per capita public benefits received by age, 2011</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-legend" transform="translate(25,65)" zindex="7"><rect fill="#FFFFFF" height="46" rx="5" ry="5" stroke-width="1" stroke="#909090" strokewidth="1" visibility="visible" width="487" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><g zindex="1"><g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(8,3)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#99918f" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(158,3)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#104c8d" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(308,3)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#ba9963" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(8,21)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#f37832" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-legend-item" transform="translate(158,21)" zindex="1"><rect fill="#8b4823" height="12" width="20" x="0" y="4" zindex="3"></rect></g></g></g></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 110.60620490252396 471)" x="110.60620490252396" y="471"><tspan>0</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 138.16176045807953 471)" x="138.16176045807953" y="471"><tspan>5</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 165.71731601363507 471)" x="165.71731601363507" y="471"><tspan>10</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 193.27287156919064 471)" x="193.27287156919064" y="471"><tspan>15</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 220.82842712474618 471)" x="220.82842712474618" y="471"><tspan>20</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 248.38398268030173 471)" x="248.38398268030173" y="471"><tspan>25</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 275.9395382358573 471)" x="275.9395382358573" y="471"><tspan>30</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 303.4950937914129 471)" x="303.4950937914129" y="471"><tspan>35</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 331.05064934696844 471)" x="331.05064934696844" y="471"><tspan>40</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 358.606204902524 471)" x="358.606204902524" y="471"><tspan>45</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 386.1617604580795 471)" x="386.1617604580795" y="471"><tspan>50</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 413.7173160136351 471)" x="413.7173160136351" y="471"><tspan>55</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 441.27287156919067 471)" x="441.27287156919067" y="471"><tspan>60</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 468.8284271247462 471)" x="468.8284271247462" y="471"><tspan>65</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 496.3839826803018 471)" x="496.3839826803018" y="471"><tspan>70</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 523.9395382358573 471)" x="523.9395382358573" y="471"><tspan>75</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 551.495093791413 471)" x="551.495093791413" y="471"><tspan>80–84</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 600px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(-45 579.0506493469684 471)" x="579.0506493469684" y="471"><tspan>*85+</tspan></text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="460">$0</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="428">$5,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="396">$10,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="364">$15,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="332">$20,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="300">$25,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="268">$30,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="236">$35,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="204">$40,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="172">$45,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="79" y="140">$50,000</text></g><g class="highcharts-tooltip" style="cursor: default; padding: 0; white-space: nowrap;" transform="translate(0,-9999)" zindex="8"><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 13.5 0.5 C 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 3.5 L 16.5 13.5 C 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 13.5 16.5 L 3.5 16.5 C 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 13.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.049999999999999996" stroke-width="5" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 13.5 0.5 C 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 3.5 L 16.5 13.5 C 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 13.5 16.5 L 3.5 16.5 C 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 13.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.09999999999999999" stroke-width="3" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 13.5 0.5 C 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 3.5 L 16.5 13.5 C 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 13.5 16.5 L 3.5 16.5 C 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 13.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.15" stroke-width="1" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 13.5 0.5 C 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 3.5 L 16.5 13.5 C 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 13.5 16.5 L 3.5 16.5 C 0.5 16.5 0.5 16.5 0.5 13.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="rgba(249, 249, 249, .85)"></path><text style="color: #333333; fill: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;" x="8" y="20" zindex="1"></text></g><g class="highcharts-button" stroke-linecap="round" style="cursor: default;" transform="translate(517,10)"><rect fill="white" height="28" rx="2" ry="2" stroke-width="1" stroke="none" strokewidth="1" width="73" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><path d="M 6 6.5 L 20 6.5 M 6 11.5 L 20 11.5 M 6 16.5 L 20 16.5" fill="#E0E0E0" stroke-width="3" stroke="#666" zindex="1"></path><text style="fill: black;" x="30" y="17" zindex="1">Export</text></g></svg><div class="highcharts-legend" style="left: 25px; opacity: 0.75; position: absolute; top: 65px;">
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<img alt="Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta" height="26" src="https://www.frbatlanta.org/~/media/images/logos/atlanta-fed-logo-horizontal-high-resolution-gray.png" style="border: 0px; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="235" /></div>
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<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; margin-top: 1.5em;">
What this will mean in 25 years is that the aging of the population will be the single largest factor affecting U.S. government spending on major health care programs and Social Security, according to the CBO. Expenditures for those two areas together already exceed all other noninterest spending, and that gap is likely to grow. In particular, expenditures on social insurance for retirees are predicted to more than double by 2040, according to CBO projections.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; margin-top: 1.5em;">
What is likely to happen varies by program.</div>
<h5 style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Roboto Condensed", sans-serif; font-size: 21px; margin: 0px 0px -20px;">
Social Security and Medicare</h5>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; margin-top: 1.5em;">
The two biggest public programs that support the elderly are Social Security and Medicare. In 2014, Social Security outlays totaled about 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and Medicare spending equaled about 3.5 percent of GDP. The Social Security Administration projects that Social Security expenditures will rise to 6 percent of GDP in 2034 and that Medicare costs will increase to 5.4 percent of GDP.</div>
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Increases in the old-age dependency ratio—more retirees per worker— significantly affect the sustainability of these programs because benefits to current retirees are largely financed by payroll taxes paid by current workers. If benefits are maintained at their current levels, the projected increases in the old-age dependency ratio will put a big dent in the paychecks of our children and grandchildren.</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; margin-top: 1.5em;">
This is not a new issue. Congress has known of this problem for decades and created trust funds to ease the tax burden on future workers. However, Social Security Administration projections indicate that the funds are too small. Those projections show that the Medicare Trust Fund will be depleted in 2030 and the Social Security Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2034. Once the trust funds are gone, under current law, payments to retirees would have to fall suddenly and sharply. (See chart 4.)</div>
<div class="economyMattersChart" data-highcharts-chart="3" id="container_SocialSecurityTrustFundBalance" style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; height: 400px; line-height: 19.5px; margin: 0px auto; width: 600px;">
<div class="highcharts-container" id="highcharts-12" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); height: 400px; line-height: normal; overflow: hidden; position: relative; width: 600px; z-index: 0;">
<svg height="400" style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" version="1.1" width="600" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><defs><clippath id="highcharts-13"><rect height="204" width="523" x="0" y="0"></rect></clippath></defs><rect class=" highcharts-background" fill="#FFFFFF" height="398" stroke-width="1" stroke="#CDCDCD" strokewidth="1" width="598" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><text style="color: #756a5b; fill: rgb(117, 106, 91); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; width: 550px;" x="15" y="335"><tspan>Source: 2015 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and</tspan><tspan dy="14" x="15">Federal Disability Trust Funds</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"></g><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"><path d="M 67 275.5 L 590 275.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 67 249.5 L 590 249.5" 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111.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 152.5 275 L 152.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 193.5 275 L 193.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 235.5 275 L 235.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 276.5 275 L 276.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 317.5 275 L 317.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 358.5 275 L 358.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 400.5 275 L 400.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 441.5 275 L 441.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 482.5 275 L 482.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 524.5 275 L 524.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 565.5 275 L 565.5 285" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 67 275 L 590 275" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="#756A5C" visibility="visible" zindex="7"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"><text class=" highcharts-yaxis-title" style="color: #756a5c; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(270 24 172.5)" visibility="visible" x="24" y="172.5" zindex="7"><tspan>Trust Fund balance (in trillions)</tspan></text></g><g class="highcharts-series-group" zindex="3"><g class="highcharts-series" clip-path="url(#highcharts-13)" transform="translate(67,70) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"><path d="M 3.4407894736842106 15.503125000000011 L 10.322368421052632 16.52812499999999 L 17.203947368421055 17.424999999999983 L 24.085526315789473 18.193749999999994 L 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scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"></g></g><text class="highcharts-title" style="fill: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: bold; width: 536px;" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="25" zindex="4"><tspan>Chart 4</tspan><tspan dy="19" x="15">Social Security Trust Fund balance</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="70.4407894736842" y="295"><tspan>2014</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="111.73026315789474" y="295"><tspan>2020</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="153.01973684210526" y="295"><tspan>2026</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="194.30921052631578" y="295"><tspan>2032</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="235.59868421052633" y="295"><tspan>2038</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="276.8881578947369" y="295"><tspan>2044</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="318.1776315789474" y="295"><tspan>2050</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="359.4671052631579" y="295"><tspan>2056</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="400.75657894736844" y="295"><tspan>2062</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="442.04605263157896" y="295"><tspan>2068</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="483.3355263157895" y="295"><tspan>2074</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="524.625" y="295"><tspan>2080</tspan></text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: ellipsis; width: 40.2308px;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="565.9144736842106" y="295"><tspan>2086</tspan></text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="52" y="280">-12</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="52" y="254">-10</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="52" y="229">-8</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="52" y="203">-6</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="52" y="178">-4</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="52" y="152">-2</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 188px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="52" y="126">0</text><text 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Medicare in some ways presents a more urgent and complex challenge than does Social Security, Kopecky notes. Medicare outlays are projected to grow more rapidly than Social Security spending, mainly because health care costs are rising faster than inflation, although the rate of increase has slowed in recent years. But because the size of Medicare outlays is so closely tied to health care costs, the growth rate of Medicare spending is more uncertain than that of Social Security.</div>
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Medicaid, SSI, and other means-tested benefits for retirees</h5>
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In means-tested social insurance programs, benefit eligibility depends on a person’s financial situation—their current income and wealth, for example. Put simply, the more you already have, the less you get. Medicaid and SSI, the two largest means-tested social insurance programs for retirees, are small compared to Social Security and Medicare. Together, outlays from Medicaid and SSI accounted for about 1 percent of GDP in 2014. These programs are smaller because instead of paying benefits to all retirees, they target those with the greatest financial and medical need.</div>
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Although Medicaid expenditures on retirees are less than 1 percent of GDP, expenditures per enrollee age 65 and older are large and growing. They were about $15,000 in 2014—versus about $4,000 for working-age adults—and are projected to exceed $23,000 by 2023, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).</div>
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Large costs for older enrollees are fueled by expenditures of the "oldest old" retirees—those age 85 and older—many of whom rely on Medicaid to finance long-term care costs including nursing home stays. As Kopecky notes, among public health care programs, Medicaid is the largest funder of long-term care for the elderly. In 2013, it financed 41 percent of all long-term care expenses, according to CMS, while Medicare covered just 18 percent.</div>
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SSI, the Supplementary Security Income program, is run and funded by the federal government. Medicaid is jointly operated and funded by the federal government and the states. These programs rely on revenue from income, payroll, sales, and property taxes, the bulk of which is collected from working-age individuals. (See the infographic.) As the old-age dependency ratio increases, total tax revenues from working-age individuals will decline relative to outlays to retirees from these programs.</div>
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How to fix the funding shortfalls today</h5>
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To get a handle on how daunting the fiscal math is, consider what measures would be required to fix the budget imbalances immediately. To maintain Social Security benefits at their current levels over the next 75 years, the payroll tax would have to be immediately and permanently increased from its current level of 12.40 percent to 15.02 percent, the Social Security Administration estimates. In that scenario, a person earning $60,000 a year would pay about $1,500 more per year in taxes.</div>
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Alternatively, to keep taxes unchanged, benefits would have to be immediately slashed by 16.4 percent for all retirees. If that happened, a retiree receiving $20,000 a year in Social Security payments, roughly the average for someone who retired in 2014, would see a $3,280 cut in annual benefits. To maintain Medicare benefits at their current levels, the payroll tax rate would have to be immediately increased by 0.26 percentage points or, to keep taxes unchanged, benefits would have to be immediately reduced by 15 percent.</div>
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For fiscal policymakers, it would surely be very difficult to enact these drastic measures.</div>
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Unlike Social Security and Medicare, Medicaid and SSI are not funded by a dedicated revenue source and trust fund. Thus, the solvency of these programs is not an issue. Moreover, growth in Medicaid spending on long-term care has been somewhat mitigated by efforts to steer the elderly away from nursing home care in favor of less costly alternatives such as home care. Still, Medicaid and SSI combined constitute a significant portion of the federal budget, and Medicaid makes up a large portion of the states’ budgets, Kopecky and Braun point out. In 2013, for example, these two programs accounted for 10 percent of federal spending and 19 percent of all state spending.</div>
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The costs of delaying reform</h5>
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Digging out of this fiscal hole is a thorny political challenge. It is very difficult to legislate large increases in payroll or income taxes. And higher taxes have a depressing effect on the economy. Also, it is difficult to push through legislation that reduces benefits for retirees, who tend to be politically active. So there is a tendency for policymakers to delay taking either action. But the longer policymakers wait to address the fiscal challenges of aging, the more intractable the problems become, Braun observes, citing the case of Japan. (See the sidebar "Along with America, the World Is Graying.")</div>
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Along with America, the World Is Graying</h4>
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</span><span class="jwtimeSliderCapRight" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-user-select: none; background: url("data:image/png; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; direction: ltr; float: left; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 3px;"> </span></span></span><span class="jwgroup jwright" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-user-select: none; background-color: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; direction: ltr; display: inline; float: right; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; right: 8px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="jwtext jwduration jwhidden" id="jwAudioPlayerShirakawa_controlbar_duration" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); 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padding: 0px; position: relative; transition: opacity 0.25s, background 0.25s, visibility 0.25s; vertical-align: baseline; width: 26px;" tabindex="-1" type="button"> </button></span></span><span class="jwslider jwvolumeH jwhorizontal" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-user-select: none; background-color: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; direction: ltr; display: block; float: left; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 30px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; width: 56px;"><span class="jwvolumeHCapLeft" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-user-select: none; background: url("data:image/png; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; direction: ltr; float: left; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; 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margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; vertical-align: baseline; width: 4px;"> </span><span class="jwvolumeHProgress" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-user-select: none; background: url("data:image/png; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; direction: ltr; float: left; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 30px; left: 4px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; right: 4px; vertical-align: baseline;"> </span><span class="jwvolumeHProgressCapRight jwcapRight" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); -webkit-user-drag: none; -webkit-user-select: none; background: url("data:image/png; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; direction: ltr; float: left; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: 30px; margin: 0px; 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padding: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 8px;"> </span></span></span><div id="jwAudioPlayerShirakawa_jwpsrv" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); background-color: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: content-box; direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; z-index: 10;">
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<a href="https://frbatlanta.org/podcasts/transcripts/economy-matters/160321-the-graying-of-the-japanese-economy.aspx" style="color: #3e5c83; text-decoration: none;"></a></div>
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It's clear we need reform. So what do economists say about what potentially good reforms might look like?</div>
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An economic perspective on policy reforms</h5>
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Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and SSI insure the elderly against various risks. Social Security furnishes a steady income to help insulate people from poverty very late in life. The size of one’s Social Security benefits depends on one’s earnings history. SSI provides additional transfers to elderly individuals whose Social Security benefits are especially low.</div>
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Of course, the elderly also face a high risk of large health care expenses. Medicare provides health insurance to all Americans 65 and older, but it does not cover long-term care expenses. That matters, as the prospect of long-term care is one of the two largest financial risks individuals face over their lifetime, second only to the risk of low lifetime earnings, according to a 2014 <a href="https://frbatlanta.org/research/publications/wp/2010/19.aspx" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;">research paper by the Atlanta Fed’s Kopecky and Tatyana Koreshkova</a> of Concordia University.</div>
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Nursing home stays are particularly expensive. In 2010, it cost an average of $75,000 to spend a year in a semi-private room. Some seniors are fairly likely to face these costs. The average 50-year-old woman has a 38 percent chance of spending more than 100 days in a nursing home, and for the average 50-year-old male, the chance is 20 percent, Rand Corporation economist Michael Hurd and coauthors estimate in a 2014 research paper. Kopecky and Koreshkova report that 40 percent of those who enter a nursing home will stay for more than a year, 20 percent for more than three years, and 11 percent for more than five years.</div>
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Medicaid is the largest public insurer of long-term care. However, because only poorer individuals who meet a means test are covered by Medicaid, most of nursing home expenses are paid for out of pocket, from savings. Kopecky and Koreshkova calculate that savings for anticipated nursing home expenses account for 3.7 percent of private wealth in the U.S. economy, or more than $1 trillion. That's enough money to purchase the nation's entire stock of cars, pickup trucks, heavy cargo trucks, airplanes, ships, and every other form of transportation equipment.</div>
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Relatives are most common caregivers</h5>
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Given how expensive long-term care can be, it is not surprising that family members provide much of this type of assistance. In fact, unpaid female family members are the most common care providers. As noted, females are also more likely to require long-term care.</div>
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Alzheimer's disease and other dementias are among the biggest reasons why people end up needing long-term care. Women and older minorities face heightened risks of dementia, numerous studies have found. In fact, women account for nearly two-thirds of Americans with Alzheimer's, according to the Alzheimer's Foundation. Taken together, these results suggest that minority females are most likely to require formal long-term care. (See the sidebar "Dementia Takes Large and Growing Economic Toll.")</div>
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Dementia Takes Large and Growing Economic Toll</h4>
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Reforming social insurance for retirees</h5>
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Though retirees face significant risks, it doesn’t necessarily mean the government has a special role to insure against these risks, Kopecky and Braun point out. Americans, after all, have many years to prepare for retirement, and on average retirees have substantial savings. Private insurance markets sell a range of products that are specifically designed for retirees. Private annuities and reverse mortgages offer stable cash flows through the end of life, and private insurance markets also offer long-term care insurance.</div>
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Nevertheless, even if they plan well for retirement, some retirees will survive to an old age and find themselves sick, alone, and poor. This sad state may result from the death of a spouse or burdensome long-term care expenses due to dementia. And, again, this risk is particularly significant for females and minorities. What is special about the people who end up sick, alone, and poor is that they can't cope on their own by returning to work.</div>
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So in this sense, there is a special role for social insurance. <a href="https://frbatlanta.org/research/publications/wp/2013/02.aspx" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;">In a formal analysis in 2016</a>, Braun, Kopecky, and Koreshkova found that even though Medicaid, SSI, and other means-tested social insurance programs for retirees are relatively small, they provide valuable protections against these risks: households with both low and high lifetime earnings receive benefits, and means testing holds down the public costs of providing these benefits. Indeed, this research suggests that the current scale of these means-tested programs for retirees may be too small.</div>
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And even if the government were to fix the fiscal imbalances in the U.S. Social Security system now, its pay-as-you-go structure—current workers fund the benefits of current retirees—means that workers in future years will face larger payroll taxes to cover benefits of retirees.</div>
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Perhaps, then, it is time to consider an alternative way to provide public pensions, Braun and Kopecky suggest. One reform that has received considerable attention is a defined-contribution public pension, something like a 401(k) plan. Under this system, part of a worker's payroll taxes are used to fund a mandatory retirement savings account that belongs to an individual worker.</div>
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Defined-contribution public pensions have several advantages, the Atlanta Fed economists note. They work well when the old-age dependency ratio is high—the situation the United States is facing—because workers are saving for their own retirement. There is also less political uncertainty about the eventual size of benefits because the accounts are in workers' names, so there is not a shrinking pool of money that must be divvied up among all retirees. Contributions to these savings accounts also offer individuals a higher rate of return than their contributions to a pay-as-you-go social security system. Earlier research by economists including Atlanta Fed research director Dave Altig <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/working-papers/working-papers-archives/1997-working-papers/wp-9703-social-security-privatization-a-simple-proposal.aspx" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;" target="_new">found that this type of social security reform</a>enhances general social welfare.</div>
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The biggest hurdle would be in managing the transition from the current plan to a defined-contribution public pension system. In particular, how do you grandfather in current retirees? Economists have suggested strategies for dealing with this issue. <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2008.00480.x/abstract" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;" target="_new">One approach proposed</a> by Juan Carlos Conesa of the Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona and Carlos Garriga, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is to increase government debt to fund a couple of costly measures: to give those who are relatively close to retirement a deposit into their account for their previous contributions to Social Security, since they wouldn’t be contributing to the savings account for an entire career, and to continue Social Security payments for existing retirees.</div>
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In this scenario, citizens at some future date would pay a minimal tax to cover interest on the newly issued government debt. The economists argue that this is good for future citizens because they have the benefit of their own personal retirement savings accounts and avoid high payroll taxes to support retirees in a society with a large old-age dependency ratio.</div>
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Other countries have done this. Sweden and a number of Latin American nations have implemented reforms along these lines. A lesson from Latin America: less affluent retirees still need a safety net, say Stephen Kay, a senior economist and director of the Atlanta Fed's Americas Center, and Tapen Sinha, an economist at Instituto Technologico de Mexico, who edited the 2008 book <a href="https://frbatlanta.org/americascenter/research/on_lessons_from_pension_reform_inamericas.aspx" style="color: #006aa4; text-decoration: none;"><em>Lessons from Pension Reform in the Americas</em></a>.</div>
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Means testing Social Security and Medicare</h5>
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As an alternative to defined-contribution public pension plans, a somewhat less radical but perhaps more contentious solution would be to means test Social Security and Medicare benefits. Some countries, including Australia and the United Kingdom, have adopted means-tested public pension benefits. In those countries, the middle class and the needy continue to receive benefits. But benefits gradually fall with wealth, and the most affluent receive few or no benefits. In Australia, for instance, only about half of retirees receive public pensions.</div>
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In the United States, the sustainability of Social Security and Medicare is going to receive far more attention as the programs' trust funds dwindle. What specific reforms to make and how to implement them are difficult questions. Yet it is important to begin these discussions now and to take actions soon.</div>
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Japan's experience suggests that delaying public pension reforms casts a pall on the economy. The longer we wait, the larger are the tax increases or spending cuts needed to restore balance. And uncertainty about the nature of the eventual reforms makes it difficult for individuals to plan for retirement.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-2971355841458216242016-07-14T08:29:00.003-07:002016-07-14T08:29:20.732-07:00Soaring Numbers of Elderly Reshaping U.S. Economy <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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In the next few decades, the nation will experience dramatic demographic change as the ranks of the old grow faster than the rest of the population. These changes will bring fiscal challenges and will affect the nation's labor supply and demand for products and services.</div>
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The graying of the population is expected to be a significant driver of U.S. government spending over the next quarter-century, the Congressional Budget Office has projected, because older people tend to depend heavily on entitlements such as Social Security; Medicare, the national insurance program for those 65 and older; and needs-based programs such as Medicaid and Supplemental Social Security Income.</div>
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Living to 85 and beyond</h5>
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People are living longer, thanks to medical advances and a public focus on healthy lifestyles. The average baby born in the United States in 2013 can expect to live 79 years, which is 25 years longer than an ancestor born in 1920 and 16 years longer than someone born in 1940, according to the Centers for Disease Control–National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS; see chart 1).</div>
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<svg height="400" style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" version="1.1" width="577" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><defs><clippath id="highcharts-1"><rect height="224" width="495" x="0" y="0"></rect></clippath></defs><rect class=" highcharts-background" fill="#FFFFFF" height="398" stroke-width="1" stroke="#CDCDCD" strokewidth="1" width="575" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><text style="color: #756a5b; fill: rgb(117, 106, 91); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; width: 527px;" x="10" y="345"><tspan>Sources: CDC–National Center for Health Statistics, University of California–Berkeley</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"></g><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"><path d="M 62 295.5 L 557 295.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 62 250.5 L 557 250.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 62 205.5 L 557 205.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 62 160.5 L 557 160.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 62 115.5 L 557 115.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 62 69.5 L 557 69.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"><path d="M 80.5 295 L 80.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 118.5 295 L 118.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 156.5 295 L 156.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 194.5 295 L 194.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 232.5 295 L 232.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 270.5 295 L 270.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 309.5 295 L 309.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 347.5 295 L 347.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 385.5 295 L 385.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 423.5 295 L 423.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 461.5 295 L 461.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 499.5 295 L 499.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 537.5 295 L 537.5 300" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 62 295 L 557 295" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="#756A5C" visibility="visible" zindex="7"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"><text class=" highcharts-yaxis-title" style="color: #756a5c; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(270 23.53125 182.5)" visibility="visible" x="23.53125" y="182.5" zindex="7"><tspan>Life expectancy at birth</tspan></text></g><g class="highcharts-series-group" zindex="3"><g class="highcharts-series highcharts-tracker" clip-path="url(#highcharts-1)" transform="translate(62,70) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"><rect fill="#99918f" height="71" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="9.5" y="154.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="119" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="47.5" y="106.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="132" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="85.5" y="93.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="142" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="123.5" y="83.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="158" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="161.5" y="67.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="168" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="199.5" y="57.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="177" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="237.5" y="48.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="184" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="275.5" y="41.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="187" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="314.5" y="38.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="196" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="352.5" y="29.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="203" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="390.5" y="22.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="213" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="428.5" y="12.5"></rect><rect fill="#99918f" height="214" rx="0" ry="0" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" width="19" x="466.5" y="11.5"></rect></g><g class="highcharts-markers" clip-path="none" transform="translate(62,70) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"></g></g><text class="highcharts-title" style="fill: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: bold; width: 461.6px;" text-anchor="start" x="10" y="25" zindex="4"><tspan>Chart 1</tspan><tspan dy="19" x="10">Americans are living longer</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-data-labels highcharts-tracker" opacity="1" transform="translate(62,70) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="6"><g transform="translate(6,128)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>63</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(44,80)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>68</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(82,67)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>70</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(120,57)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>71</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(158,41)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>73</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(196,31)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>74</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(234,22)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>75</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(272,15)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>75</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(311,12)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>76</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(349,3)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>77</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(387,-4)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>78</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(425,-14)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>79</tspan></text></g><g transform="translate(463,-15)" zindex="1"><text style="color: #104c8d; fill: rgb(16, 76, 141); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-rendering: geometricPrecision; text-shadow: none;" x="5" y="19" zindex="1"><tspan>79</tspan></text></g></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="81.03846153846155" y="315">1940</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="119.11538461538461" y="315">1950</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="157.1923076923077" y="315">1960</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="195.26923076923077" y="315">1970</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="233.34615384615387" y="315">1975</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="271.42307692307696" y="315">1980</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="309.5" y="315">1985</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="347.5769230769231" y="315">1990</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="385.6538461538462" y="315">1995</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="423.7307692307693" y="315">2000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="461.8076923076924" y="315">2005</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="499.8846153846154" y="315">2010</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="537.9615384615386" y="315">2013</text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="47" y="299">55</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="47" y="254">60</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="47" y="209">65</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="47" y="164">70</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="47" y="119">75</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="47" y="74">80</text></g><g class="highcharts-button" stroke-linecap="round" style="cursor: default;" transform="translate(494,10)"><rect fill="white" height="28" rx="2" ry="2" stroke-width="1" stroke="none" strokewidth="1" width="73" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><path d="M 6 6.5 L 20 6.5 M 6 11.5 L 20 11.5 M 6 16.5 L 20 16.5" fill="#E0E0E0" stroke-width="3" stroke="#666" zindex="1"></path><text style="fill: black;" x="30" y="17" zindex="1">Export</text></g></svg><span style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; 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Another demographic trend: women are having fewer babies than decades ago. In recent years, the U.S. fertility rate reached record lows, falling about 1 percent in 2013 to 62.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, NCHS data show. Teen births have also dropped to historic lows. The U.S. Census Bureau projects that fertility rates will continue to drop and the pace of immigration will decline modestly. (See chart 2.)</div>
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<div class="highcharts-container" id="highcharts-2" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); height: 400px; line-height: normal; overflow: hidden; position: relative; width: 577px; z-index: 0;">
<svg height="400" style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" version="1.1" width="577" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><defs><clippath id="highcharts-3"><rect height="224" width="498" x="0" y="0"></rect></clippath></defs><rect class=" highcharts-background" fill="#FFFFFF" height="398" stroke-width="1" stroke="#CDCDCD" strokewidth="1" width="575" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><text style="color: #756a5b; fill: rgb(117, 106, 91); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; width: 527px;" x="15" y="345"><tspan>Source: CDC–National Center for Health Statistics, 2015</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"></g><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"><path d="M 69 295.5 L 567 295.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 69 263.5 L 567 263.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 69 231.5 L 567 231.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 69 199.5 L 567 199.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 69 166.5 L 567 166.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 69 134.5 L 567 134.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 69 102.5 L 567 102.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 69 69.5 L 567 69.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"><path d="M 71.5 295 L 71.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 139.5 295 L 139.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 206.5 295 L 206.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 273.5 295 L 273.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 341.5 295 L 341.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 408.5 295 L 408.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 475.5 295 L 475.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 542.5 295 L 542.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 69 295 L 567 295" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="#756A5C" visibility="visible" zindex="7"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"><text class=" highcharts-yaxis-title" style="color: #756a5c; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(270 23.796875 182.5)" visibility="visible" x="23.796875" y="182.5" zindex="7"><tspan>Births per 1,000 women age 15-44</tspan></text></g><g class="highcharts-series-group" zindex="3"><path 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fill="none" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="22" stroke="rgba(192,192,192,0.0001)" visibility="visible" zindex="2"></path></g><g class="highcharts-markers highcharts-tracker" clip-path="url(#highcharts-4)" transform="translate(69,70) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"><path d="M 366.77027027027026 200.03571428571428 C 374.7622702702703 200.03571428571428 374.7622702702703 212.03571428571428 366.77027027027026 212.03571428571428 C 358.77827027027024 212.03571428571428 358.77827027027024 200.03571428571428 366.77027027027026 200.03571428571428 Z" fill="#99918f" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" visibility="hidden"></path></g></g><text class="highcharts-title" style="fill: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: bold; width: 513px;" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="25" zindex="4"><tspan>Chart 2</tspan><tspan dy="19" x="15">Repercussions of baby boom not nearly over</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="72.36486486486487" y="315">1940</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="139.66216216216216" y="315">1950</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="206.95945945945945" y="315">1960</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="274.2567567567568" y="315">1970</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="341.554054054054" y="315">1980</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="408.85135135135135" y="315">1990</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="476.14864864864865" y="315">2000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="543.4459459459459" y="315">2010</text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="54" y="299">60</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="54" y="267">70</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="54" y="235">80</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="54" y="203">90</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="54" y="170">100</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="54" y="138">110</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="54" y="106">120</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="54" y="74">130</text></g><g class="highcharts-tooltip" opacity="0" style="cursor: default; padding: 0; white-space: nowrap;" transform="translate(354,-9999)" visibility="visible" zindex="8"><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 160.5 0.5 C 163.5 0.5 163.5 0.5 163.5 3.5 L 163.5 46.5 C 163.5 49.5 163.5 49.5 160.5 49.5 L 87.5 49.5 81.5 55.5 75.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="49" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.049999999999999996" stroke-width="5" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="163"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 160.5 0.5 C 163.5 0.5 163.5 0.5 163.5 3.5 L 163.5 46.5 C 163.5 49.5 163.5 49.5 160.5 49.5 L 87.5 49.5 81.5 55.5 75.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="49" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.09999999999999999" stroke-width="3" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="163"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 160.5 0.5 C 163.5 0.5 163.5 0.5 163.5 3.5 L 163.5 46.5 C 163.5 49.5 163.5 49.5 160.5 49.5 L 87.5 49.5 81.5 55.5 75.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="49" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.15" stroke-width="1" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="163"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 160.5 0.5 C 163.5 0.5 163.5 0.5 163.5 3.5 L 163.5 46.5 C 163.5 49.5 163.5 49.5 160.5 49.5 L 87.5 49.5 81.5 55.5 75.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="rgba(249, 249, 249, .85)" stroke-width="1" stroke="#99918f"></path><text style="color: #333333; fill: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;" x="8" y="20" zindex="1"><tspan style="font-size: 16px;">General Fertility Rate</tspan><tspan dy="15" x="8">1994:</tspan></text></g></svg> <tspan dx="0" style="font-weight: bold;">65.9</tspan><g class="highcharts-button" stroke-linecap="round" style="cursor: default;" transform="translate(494,10)"><rect fill="white" height="28" rx="2" ry="2" stroke-width="1" stroke="none" strokewidth="1" width="73" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><path d="M 6 6.5 L 20 6.5 M 6 11.5 L 20 11.5 M 6 16.5 L 20 16.5" fill="#E0E0E0" stroke-width="3" stroke="#666" zindex="1"></path><text style="fill: black;" x="30" y="17" zindex="1">Export</text></g><span style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; left: 1px; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; position: absolute; top: 360px; white-space: nowrap;"><div style="background-color: #efefef; height: 30px; padding: 8px 0px 0px 8px; width: 566px; z-index: 3;">
<img alt="Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta" height="26" src="https://www.frbatlanta.org/~/media/images/logos/atlanta-fed-logo-horizontal-high-resolution-gray.png" style="border: 0px; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="235" /></div>
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These trends will slow the nation's overall population growth just as the youngest baby boomers approach retirement. The U.S. civilian noninstitutional population—that is, those people 16 years old and older who are neither in an institution nor on active duty in the armed services—is projected to rise 0.8 percent between 2014 and 2024, down from 1 percent growth in the previous 10-year period, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.</div>
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These two factors in conjunction with the aging of the baby boomers imply that the share of Americans 65 and older will rise from about 15 percent of the population today, or about 48 million people, to 21 percent, or 74 million, by 2030, the year the youngest baby boomers turn 65, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections. By 2050, that number is expected to nearly double to 88 million people, or 22 percent of the total U.S. populace. (See chart 3.)</div>
<div class="economyMattersChart" data-highcharts-chart="2" id="container_Americans65AndOlder" style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; height: 400px; line-height: 19.5px; width: 577.219px;">
<div class="highcharts-container" id="highcharts-6" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); height: 400px; line-height: normal; overflow: hidden; position: relative; width: 577px; z-index: 0;">
<svg height="400" style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" version="1.1" width="577" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><defs><clippath id="highcharts-7"><rect height="224" width="475" x="0" y="0"></rect></clippath></defs><rect class=" highcharts-background" fill="#FFFFFF" height="398" stroke-width="1" stroke="#CDCDCD" strokewidth="1" width="575" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><text style="color: #756a5b; fill: rgb(117, 106, 91); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-stretch: normal; width: 527px;" x="15" y="345"><tspan>Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2015</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"></g><g class="highcharts-grid" zindex="1"><path d="M 92 295.5 L 567 295.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 92 258.5 L 567 258.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 92 220.5 L 567 220.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 92 183.5 L 567 183.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 92 145.5 L 567 145.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 92 108.5 L 567 108.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path><path d="M 92 69.5 L 567 69.5" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#D8D8D8" zindex="1"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"><path d="M 107.5 295 L 107.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 170.5 295 L 170.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 234.5 295 L 234.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 297.5 295 L 297.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 360.5 295 L 360.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 424.5 295 L 424.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 487.5 295 L 487.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 550.5 295 L 550.5 305" fill="none" opacity="1" stroke-width="1" stroke="#C0D0E0"></path><path d="M 92 295 L 567 295" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="#756A5C" visibility="visible" zindex="7"></path></g><g class="highcharts-axis" zindex="2"><text class=" highcharts-yaxis-title" style="color: #756a5c; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0) rotate(270 24.21875 182.5)" visibility="visible" x="24.21875" y="182.5" zindex="7"><tspan>In thousands</tspan></text></g><g class="highcharts-series-group" zindex="3"><path d="M 0 0" fill="rgba(153,145,143,0.25)"></path><g class="highcharts-series" clip-path="url(#highcharts-7)" transform="translate(92,70) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"><path d="M 15.833333333333334 215.750221875 L 47.5 212.561615625 L 79.16666666666667 208.08878625 L 110.83333333333333 201.994618125 L 142.5 193.9507875 L 174.16666666666669 187.37718375 L 205.83333333333334 177.094824375 L 237.50000000000003 166.421566875 L 269.1666666666667 159.390463125 L 300.8333333333333 149.571165 L 332.5 119.173125 L 364.1666666666667 86.049375 L 395.8333333333333 70.60499999999999 L 427.5 60.00749999999999 L 459.1666666666667 40.942499999999995" fill="none" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="#99918f" zindex="1"></path><path class=" highcharts-tracker" d="M 5.833333333333334 215.750221875 L 15.833333333333334 215.750221875 L 47.5 212.561615625 L 79.16666666666667 208.08878625 L 110.83333333333333 201.994618125 L 142.5 193.9507875 L 174.16666666666669 187.37718375 L 205.83333333333334 177.094824375 L 237.50000000000003 166.421566875 L 269.1666666666667 159.390463125 L 300.8333333333333 149.571165 L 332.5 119.173125 L 364.1666666666667 86.049375 L 395.8333333333333 70.60499999999999 L 427.5 60.00749999999999 L 459.1666666666667 40.942499999999995 L 469.1666666666667 40.942499999999995" fill="none" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="22" stroke="rgba(192,192,192,0.0001)" visibility="visible" zindex="2"></path></g><g class="highcharts-markers highcharts-tracker" clip-path="url(#highcharts-8)" transform="translate(92,70) scale(1 1)" visibility="visible" zindex="0.1"><path d="M 332.5 113.173125 C 340.492 113.173125 340.492 125.173125 332.5 125.173125 C 324.508 125.173125 324.508 113.173125 332.5 113.173125 Z" fill="#99918f" stroke-width="1" stroke="#FFFFFF" visibility="hidden"></path></g></g><text class="highcharts-title" style="fill: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: bold; width: 513px;" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="25" zindex="4"><tspan>Chart 3</tspan><tspan dy="19" x="15">Americans 65 and older</tspan></text><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-xaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="107.83333333333333" y="315">1920</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="171.16666666666669" y="315">1940</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="234.5" y="315">1960</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="297.83333333333337" y="315">1980</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="361.1666666666667" y="315">2000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="424.5" y="315">2020</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="487.8333333333333" y="315">2040</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal;" text-anchor="middle" transform="translate(0,0)" x="551.1666666666667" y="315">2060</text></g><g class="highcharts-axis-labels highcharts-yaxis-labels" zindex="7"><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="77" y="300">0</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="77" y="263">20,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="77" y="225">40,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="77" y="188">60,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="77" y="150">80,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="77" y="113">100,000</text><text opacity="1" style="color: #756a5c; cursor: default; fill: rgb(117, 106, 92); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; text-overflow: clip; width: 180px;" text-anchor="end" transform="translate(0,0)" x="77" y="75">120,000</text></g><g class="highcharts-tooltip" opacity="0" style="cursor: default; padding: 0; white-space: nowrap;" transform="translate(370,-9999)" visibility="visible" zindex="8"><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 107.5 0.5 C 110.5 0.5 110.5 0.5 110.5 3.5 L 110.5 46.5 C 110.5 49.5 110.5 49.5 107.5 49.5 L 60.5 49.5 54.5 55.5 48.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="49" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.049999999999999996" stroke-width="5" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="110"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 107.5 0.5 C 110.5 0.5 110.5 0.5 110.5 3.5 L 110.5 46.5 C 110.5 49.5 110.5 49.5 107.5 49.5 L 60.5 49.5 54.5 55.5 48.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="49" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.09999999999999999" stroke-width="3" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="110"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 107.5 0.5 C 110.5 0.5 110.5 0.5 110.5 3.5 L 110.5 46.5 C 110.5 49.5 110.5 49.5 107.5 49.5 L 60.5 49.5 54.5 55.5 48.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="none" height="49" isshadow="true" stroke-opacity="0.15" stroke-width="1" stroke="black" transform="translate(1, 1)" width="110"></path><path d="M 3.5 0.5 L 107.5 0.5 C 110.5 0.5 110.5 0.5 110.5 3.5 L 110.5 46.5 C 110.5 49.5 110.5 49.5 107.5 49.5 L 60.5 49.5 54.5 55.5 48.5 49.5 3.5 49.5 C 0.5 49.5 0.5 49.5 0.5 46.5 L 0.5 3.5 C 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 0.5" fill="rgba(249, 249, 249, .85)" stroke-width="1" stroke="#99918f"></path><text style="color: #333333; fill: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;" x="8" y="20" zindex="1"><tspan style="font-size: 16px;">Population</tspan><tspan dy="15" x="8">2020:</tspan></text></g></svg> <tspan dx="0" style="font-weight: bold;">56,441,000</tspan><g class="highcharts-button" stroke-linecap="round" style="cursor: default;" transform="translate(494,10)"><rect fill="white" height="28" rx="2" ry="2" stroke-width="1" stroke="none" strokewidth="1" width="73" x="0.5" y="0.5"></rect><path d="M 6 6.5 L 20 6.5 M 6 11.5 L 20 11.5 M 6 16.5 L 20 16.5" fill="#E0E0E0" stroke-width="3" stroke="#666" zindex="1"></path><text style="fill: black;" x="30" y="17" zindex="1">Export</text></g><span style="font-family: "Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans Unicode", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; left: 1px; margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; position: absolute; top: 360px; white-space: nowrap;"><div style="background-color: #efefef; height: 30px; padding: 8px 0px 0px 8px; width: 566px; z-index: 3;">
<img alt="Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta" height="26" src="https://www.frbatlanta.org/~/media/images/logos/atlanta-fed-logo-horizontal-high-resolution-gray.png" style="border: 0px; height: auto; max-width: 100%; vertical-align: middle;" width="235" /></div>
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The oldest of the old, those 85 and over, will account for a significant portion of the overall growth in the mature public. By the year 2050, adults at least 85 years old will account for 5 percent of the U.S. population, more than double their current 2 percent share, as their numbers triple to 18.9 million from 6.3 million now.</div>
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As the number of older people climbs, the proportion of working-age residents in the United States will shrink. Those 18 to 64 years old currently constitute 62 percent of the total population, but their share will drop to 58 percent by 2030 and 56.7 percent by 2060, Census figures show.</div>
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Slowing labor force growth</h5>
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The consequence of declining births and longer life expectancy is that in the future, proportionally fewer people of prime employment age will be around to pay the taxes that help fund Medicare, Social Security, and other government programs that support older people and children. (That goes also for critical national needs such as defense, security, border control, and education.)</div>
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By 2030, there will be 2.86 people of working age (18 to 64 years old) for each U.S. citizen over 65. That compares with 5 people per older person in 2000 and 9.09 people in 1940. The decreased ranks of the working-age population and the higher costs of funding entitlements for retirees threaten to depress economic activity and slow economic growth.</div>
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These population changes are set to occur against the backdrop of an economy that has not fully recovered from the Great Recession, which left many U.S. households worse off financially. As some baby boomers look to their golden years, several million Americans have seen the value of their homes, their biggest source of wealth, decline. (Some home values have recovered and increased.) Skittishness about world markets, low oil prices, and the specter of slower growth in China have raised market jitters worldwide and depressed the value of stock equities that help many build assets to sustain them through retirement.</div>
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The emergence of an aging population is likely to have profound economic effects that may not be readily apparent. People of working age largely contribute more support and resources to society than they receive, while the very young and old generally consume more than they produce. Much of the consumption of older people is funded by the government through programs such as Social Security. As declining births reduce the supply of the nation's labor market producers, government's ability to support older people will become strained. The imbalance of consumers and producers is already spurring debate about difficult policy choices among legislators.</div>
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A 2015 report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasted average annual growth in gross domestic product of 2.2 percent over the next decade, flat with the levels from 2010 through 2014, but slowing from 3 percent annually between 1960 and 2007. The agency cited slowing growth in the labor supply, which is mainly the result of aging.</div>
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Health a critical factor</h5>
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Neil Mehta, a demographer and assistant professor of global health at Emory University in Atlanta, says the critical issue is not how many more older people there will be in the coming decades. "A lot of the ramifications that aging will have for society are going to be dependent on health," he said.</div>
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He pointed out that while chronic disease is always a risk with aging, the health of older people has generally improved in the past 20 to 30 years. And while people reaching the age of traditional retirement may not want to work 9 to 5, they may desire and need to be active in the labor market, he added.</div>
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With this in mind, Mehta said policies that allow alternative workplace arrangements, such as working at home or opportunities to work part-time, are the kinds of solutions that should be discussed to help mitigate the perceived adverse macroeconomic effects of an aging population.</div>
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"There may be creative ways to tap into the potential for older people to contribute to the economy," Mehta said. (See the sidebar "Challenges of Aging Are Not Hopeless.")</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-38669392797138314642016-07-13T08:20:00.002-07:002016-07-13T08:20:36.188-07:00The Video Selfie That Changed the World (Shelly Palmer)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<img alt="Lavish "Diamond" Reynolds" height="360" src="http://www.shellypalmer.com/wp-content/images/2016/07/lavishreynolds.jpg" width="640" /><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Today, there are over 2 billion ordinary people carrying social network–connected video cameras. Notwithstanding what you’re hearing from talking heads on TV, this is not new news. The number of smartphones is racing toward 3 billion, and the trajectory and pace of this technological change are well understood. What is far less understood is the impact ~2 billion social network–connected, video-enabled smartphones will have on how we live our lives in the 21st century.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Press a Button, Go Live Worldwide</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Facebook Live empowers any of Facebook’s ~1.5 billion registered users, with a video-enabled device, to broadcast live from anywhere, anytime they are connected to Facebook. (You can do it right now: open your Facebook app, tap the “What’s on your mind?” box, tap the Live Video icon and follow the directions.) This is real-time video capture and distribution on an unprecedented scale.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Live video is very different from pre-recorded video. It’s harder to fake, and by definition it’s happening in real time. From an audience’s point of view, live video selfies captured with front-facing smartphone cameras are significantly different from the wide-screen vistas captured with the higher-resolution rear-facing cameras. The nature of the lenses on smartphones, the vertical aspect ratio and the intimate arm’s-length distance between you, the people close enough to be in your frame, and the audience has created a new storytelling genre capable of communicating in ways we have not seen before.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Lavish “Diamond” Reynolds</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">There is nothing I can tell you about Diamond Reynolds’ video selfie of the death of Philando Castile that has not been written about or discussed in the media – except that this heartbreaking documentary is not the last video selfie of its kind; it is one of the first – the sheer scale of Facebook Live guarantees it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>A New Era of Documentary Journalism</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">In the 60’s, television brought the horrors of the Viet Nam War into our living rooms. In the late 70’s, a new kind of daily broadcast network news program, “Nightline,” evolved from the Iran Hostage Crisis. In 1991, the Gulf War changed our relationship with 24-hour cable news. If you are of a certain age, you might remember CNN correspondent Bernard Shaw hiding under a desk while reporting the bombing of Baghdad from the Al-Rashid Hotel. I had never seen high-quality, color video of a city being attacked from the air, and I’ll never forget it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A few years later, the live helicopter shots of the 90-minute, low-speed OJ Simpson “white Ford Bronco chase” seemed to redefine our expectations of video coverage. Over 95 million people watched it live, but you had to be in front of a TV to see it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Each new video technology has brought a new communications paradigm with it. From the handycam used to capture the beating of Rodney King in 1991 to the 2014 smartphone video of the death of Eric Garner to the most recent terrorist attacks in Orlando and around the world, images captured by ordinary people with actioncams, camera drones and, of course, camera phones and smartphones have been part of our daily video experience.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">But by the time most people see these videos, they have been filtered through the mainstream media — edited into professionally produced stories with supporting graphics and added commentary. The images may be captured by citizen journalists, they may have originally been shot live and in real time, but more often than not, they are endlessly looped on 24-hour cable news outlets and presented with a distinctive editorial point of view. If you need some examples, search any topic in this writing on Google or YouTube. The vast majority of results will be copies of video packages from various TV news outlets.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Periscope and Meerkat foreshadowed the potential of democratized real-time video, but nothing has prepared us for the potential of Facebook Live. Now, everything you do in the presence of others can be made public instantly and, if it is interesting enough, can become viral in ways that are not yet understood.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Are there more fistfights today than there were yesterday? Or just more videos of them? More traffic accidents? More gun violence deaths? More of anything you can think of? Or just more video coverage? Is the world actually more dangerous today than it was yesterday, or are we just now finding out how dangerous the world actually is?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I don’t think we can understand or appreciate the impact of “at scale” unfiltered video journalism on our psychological well-being or on our civilization writ large. But we’ll find out soon enough. US Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis once famously wrote, “Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants,” which would lead us to believe that more open and transparent communication will bring us to a better place. Let’s hope so.</span></div>
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<i>About Shelly Palmer</i></div>
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<i>Named one of LinkedIn’s Top 10 Voices in Technology, Shelly Palmer is President & CEO of Palmer Advanced Media, a strategic advisory and business development practice focused at the nexus of technology, media and marketing with a special emphasis on data science and data-driven decision making. He is Fox 5 New York's on-air tech and digital media expert and a regular commentator on CNBC and CNN. Follow @shellypalmer or visit <a href="http://shellypalmer.com/">shellypalmer.com</a> or subscribe to our daily email <a href="http://ow.ly/WsHcb">http://ow.ly/WsHcb</a></i></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-20539221826220476302016-07-12T10:31:00.006-07:002016-07-12T10:31:46.242-07:00American Oil Drillers Add Even More Rigs<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">According to a report Friday, American drillers added rigs for the fourth week in five weeks. The addition comes in the best month of producers returning to the well pad since August and indicated that an almost two-year slump in drilling may have ended.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Eleven oil rigs were added the week to July 1, totaling the final count of oil rigs to 341. According to Baker Hughes Inc., this is down from the 640 that were counted in 2015. Previously, rigs had only been added four out of 25 weeks this year, averaging about eight rigs per week for a total of 206. In 2015, an average of 18 rigs were added weekly for a total of 963, the largest drop on record since 1988.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">After sinking from 1,609 since October 2014 amid the generation’s largest oil rout, the rig count has begun slowly rising. Meanwhile, producers have increased spending since crude prices have remained about $50 per barrel since May, a key level that analysts predicted would prompt a return to the well pad.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">This week, crude futures were mostly flat at about $48, but they have soared 26 percent over the last three months, making the second quarter the best one in the last seven years. Looking ahead, futures for the balance of 2016 were trading under $50 and 2017 was under $53.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Analysts at Evercore ISI, a U.S. banking advisory, issued a statement this week saying, “The worst is behind us and a modest recovery in spending is now underway,” predicting producers in North America would increase capital expenditures by no less than 25 percent in 2017 and most likely another 30 percent in 2018. Evercore stated its $50 price prediction suggests the rig count will improve to roughly 620 by the end of next year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Energy specialists at Piper Jaffray, Simmons & Co, upped its price prediction to $60 for 2017 and $70 for 2018. This would raise cash flow and enable producers to spend more on drilling, result in even more production. With higher prices predicted, Simmons & Co believes oil and natural gas rigs will surge up to almost 1,100 by the end of 2018 as opposed to its original estimated number of 850-900.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Oil and gas rig count fell to 404 in May, the lowest since 1940. According to Baker Hughes data, the count shot up by 10 to 431 in the week of July 1. Rig count is just one of many gauges of future production.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Other gauges include drillers’ ability to obtain more out of each well and the completion of DUCs (drilled, but uncompleted wells). Crude production is projected to drop from 9.4 million barrels a day in 2015, the highest since 1972, to 8.6 million barrels a day in 2016. According to the latest estimates, 2017 is expected to fall to 8.2 million.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-74782601423702026372016-07-05T11:14:00.000-07:002016-07-05T11:14:59.476-07:00The Fourth of July, Brought to You by Belgium, Brazil and China<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The Fourth of July. What could be more American than to pop a cold Budweiser, put a hot dog on the grill, slather it with Heinz ketchup, watch the kids chase the Good Humor Ice Cream truck, and maybe catch the latest summer blockbuster?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Well, technically, you'd be drinking a beer owned by a Brazilian-Belgian conglomerate, your hot dog may well have come from Smithfield Foods, a Chinese-owned company, the Heinz ketchup partly owned by a Brazilian private equity group, the Good Humor Ice Cream truck part of a British-Dutch conglomerate, and the movie house you visit will likely belong to Dalian Wanda, a Chinese real estate giant that controls more U.S cinema screens than any American company.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">You might be surprised to learn how many iconic American brands have been bought up by foreign companies. Indeed, in this era of suspicion toward free trade and globalization, you might be downright alarmed. Your ThinkPad laptop? Owned by Lenovo of China. The Chrysler Building? Owned by the Abu Dhabi Investment Council. The Chrysler car company itself? Owned by Italian automaker Fiat. Your favorite Sara Lee snacks? Owned by Grupo Bimbo of Mexico, the world’s biggest bread-maker. Gerber baby food, Holiday Inn hotels, Vaseline, Alka-Seltzer, Hellman’s Mayo and on and on: all owned by non-American conglomerates.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">But before you choke on your hot dog or reach for a stiff Jim Beam (now owned by a Japanese conglomerate), calm down. Global companies generally buy American icons for good old-fashioned capitalist reasons: They want to make money. They have no incentive to destroy the brand. Rather, they want to enhance it, grow its market, improve the bottom line, even rescue it from oblivion.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Take Volvo, for example. In 2010, the Chinese auto-maker Geely bought the struggling Swedish car-maker in a high-profile deal that announced corporate China's rise to the world. At the time, Volvo was on the verge of extinction; six years and $11 billion of investment later, it reported record profits in 2015 and is a leading player in the driverless car movement.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Who owned Volvo as it was struggling to survive? Ford Motors of the U.S.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">While foreign purchases can be disruptive to companies, foreign direct investment has a long record of creating jobs. Foreign companies and their U.S affiliates employ more than 8.5 million people (6 million directly, and 2.5 million indirectly) in the U.S., according to the International Trade Administration. They also contribute to innovation by spending more than $50 billion a year on research. If we take into account productivity growth arising from this foreign investment in manufacturing, this adds another 3.5 million jobs, the ITA says. All told: 12 million Americans owe their jobs to foreign investment.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Take South Carolina. The state may be “Trump Country,” but it’s also “foreign direct investment country.” The state has attracted investment from companies in 40 countries, with some 127,000 South Carolinians employed by majority-owned foreign-affiliated companies, according to the ITA. That accounts for nearly 8 percent of the state's private sector employment. Foreign investment also powers South Carolina’s export machine: The state exports nearly $31 billion worth of goods, on par with entire countries like Egypt, oil-rich Ecuador, or Bulgaria. Its top export destination? China.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Some Americans may still quail to see a totem of Americana like Anheuser-Busch fall under a global beer behemoth headquartered in Leuven, Belgium. But the parent company gave pride of place to the company they bought in 2008: its name, after all, is Anheuser-Busch Inbev. Bud Light remains the bestselling beer in America, and Budweiser is growing in popularity across emerging markets. If you owned the stock (ticker symbol: BUD) in your pension plan at the time of the purchase, you’ve seen it more than triple in value.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">To be sure, whenever a larger company buys another, cost-cutting will likely lead to lost jobs, but that’s the case whether the purchaser is American or Chinese. U.S private equity firms that buy American brands have been ruthless in their “cost-cutting.” What’s more, a recent Commerce Department report notes that Americans who work for foreign-owned companies or affiliates in the U.S are generally better paid than those who work for U.S.-owned firms.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Even as the U.S. slips down in rankings that measure everything from education to healthcare access to global competitiveness, America stands above the rest of the world in its ability to attract foreign direct investment. All told, the U.S has attracted nearly $3 trillion of FDI stock, almost double the amount of its closest competitor, the United Kingdom -- a gap that will likely grow with Brexit, notwithstanding some signs of disquiet over U.S. hyperpartisanship.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">And, no, the Chinese are not buying up America. Most of that investment comes from advanced economies, notably Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany. The Commerce Department notes that 2015 was a record year, bringing in $348 billion, with some 70 percent of that investment going toward America’s ailing manufacturing sector. In 2015, foreign buyers also purchased some $87 billion in real estate. Unless those houses and commercial buildings can fly, those assets are staying home, and contributing to a range of associated service industries.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Meanwhile, U.S companies are by far the world's biggest foreign investors, with nearly $5 trillion in foreign direct investment. And lest one think U.S firms are piling solely into sweatshop manufacturing in Asia, the vast majority of U.S investments are in advanced economies, mostly in Europe.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">So, go ahead, crack that Bud -- and rest assured that even if companies in Belgium, Brazil, and China ultimately own some of what you buy, eat, and watch this weekend, you'll still be doing right by America.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-73423448307147924862016-07-05T10:52:00.003-07:002016-07-05T10:52:24.463-07:00Prime Real Estate:<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Amazon Has Swallowed Downtown Seattle</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Having colonized the South Lake Union neighborhood, Seattle's largest private employer is building three giant spheres filled with trees—the better to connect employees with nature.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #555555; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: large;">Walk down Seventh Avenue in downtown Seattle and you can't miss them: three gigantic spheres resembling melted-together Milk Duds rising in the shadow of Amazon’s new 500-foot-tall office tower. The architectural oddity has already become a tourist attraction and social media phenomenon. Passersby snap photographs and watch construction crews attach glass panes to the steel frames. Images stream through Instagram and Twitter.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #555555; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: large;">When they open in 2018, the 100-foot-tall orbs—Amazon calls them Biospheres—will host more than 300 plant species from around the world, creating what the company sees as the workplace of the future. Amazonians will be able to break from their daily labors to walk amid the greenery along suspension bridges and climb into meeting spaces resembling bird nests perched in mature trees, where the company expects them to brainstorm—and perhaps even invent the next billion-dollar opportunity.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #555555; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: large;">Amazon's new headquarters was designed to project a forward-thinking company eager to help employees be more productive, creative and happy by providing a connection to nature. But the most trend-setting and appealing feature of the new complex is most likely its location: plopped between glass and steel high-rises on a busy street in downtown Seattle where food trucks are abundant, apartments are within walking distance and Happy Hour greets employees at quitting time.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #555555; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: large;">Over the years, founder and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos has made clear his disdain for the free lunches, massages and other perks commonplace in the suburban enclaves of Google, Apple and Facebook. His big advantage in the amenities arms race is a commitment to preserving an urban campus, no matter how big his company gets.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #555555; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: large;">Other tech companies are following his lead by squeezing new offices into cities where millennials prefer to live. LinkedIn consolidated staff scattered around San Francisco into a 26-story tower in March. Salesforce.com will be the anchor tenant in a 61-story skyscraper a few miles away that will be the city's tallest upon completion in 2018. Uber has plans for a new headquarters in San Francisco's Mission Bay. Industrial-age leviathans are doing it, too. General Electric is shifting from suburban Connecticut to Boston, while McDonald's is moving from Oak Brook, Illinois, to Chicago.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Construction continues on the spheres, on June 15, 2016.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Amazon's is the most ambitious gambit of them all. When its spheres and three surrounding towers are completed, the company will have 10 million square feet of office space in Seattle, more than 15 percent of the city's inventory, on a campus that occupies more than 10 square blocks. That will provide space for Amazon to more than double in size, to 50,000 Seattle workers in the next decade. "How big can Amazon get and stay in Seattle—that’s what they’re trying to find out," says Glenn Kelman, the CEO of online real estate company Redfin. "Can you create a massive company in the middle of a city?"</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Amazon's commitment to Seattle began long before the spheres were conceived. In 2010, the company moved to South Lake Union from leased space it was outgrowing in an old medical building. Amazon leased retail space on the ground floor of its office buildings to hand-picked bars, restaurants and coffee shops, speeding the neighborhood's transformation from a hodgepodge of car dealerships and second-hand stores into a vibrant business district where people could work, live and hang out.</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: justify;">The Amazon.com building in the South Lake Union neighborhood.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Veteran fine-dining restaurateur Tom Douglas was among the businesses lured by a growing concentration of well-paid tech workers. His survey of Amazon workers indicated they wanted cheap burgers and beer, which encouraged him to break from his traditional model and open the Brave Horse Tavern with a wide assortment of local brews, pub fare and long tables for family-style seating. "I'm sure glad we did that survey, because we might not have gone with this concept otherwise," Douglas said. "At the time, none of us realized how big and fast Amazon would grow." The economic ripples from Amazon have since pushed beyond burger joints and cafes. Yellow cranes mark the skyline where new office towers, hotels and luxury apartments are rising.</span></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large;">The Brave Horse Tavern.</b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Just six years after relocating, Amazon has outgrown South Lake Union and is marching toward the city's urban core. The spheres, designed by architecture firm NBBJ, are Amazon's boldest statement yet in the first project it's building from the ground up.</span></div>
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Amazon.com's new 500-foot-tall office tower.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">They were inspired by Amazon research indicating that a key thing missing from typical work environments is a link to the natural world, said John Schoettler, the company's global real estate director. The challenge was creating an environment conducive to plants without being hot and muggy like a greenhouse; the spheres had to be comfortable for humans.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A staff horticulturist scoured the globe for species that can thrive in a cool, dry environment. Many of the plants are endangered species, meaning that the spheres double as a conservation project. Schoettler said the design was chosen to be an architectural focal point in the city, similar to the iconic Space Needle. "We wanted to create a place employees would be proud of and proud to bring their families," he said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Inevitably, the company's growing presence is making it a scapegoat for common urban woes such as traffic jams and rising rents. New, luxury, one-bedroom apartments packed with amenities that appeal to young urban tech workers fetch upwards of $4,000 a month, putting them out of reach of the Starbucks barista.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">To some long-time Seattleites, the new South Lake Union feels sterile, like an open-air mall. Wide sidewalks are devoid of cigarette butts and shattered beer bottles. Street people banging bongos and strumming acoustic guitars with mangy dogs in tow, a common sight in Seattle’s retail and financial districts, are conspicuously absent. South Lake Union has become "a dormitory for Amazon and now Facebook and Google," said Jeff Reifman, a tech consultant.</span></div>
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People eat lunch in a courtyard outside the Amazon offices.</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Meanwhile, the Space Needle's owners have complained that all the towers being thrown up by Amazon and developers hoping to house its workers are crowding out views of the aging tourist attraction.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">For now, Amazon's growth seems unstoppable, and it will continue to redefine Seattle, one of the nation's fastest-growing cities. Nathan Wilhite, 36, helped fuel that growth when he moved from Chicago to Seattle four years ago. He rides his bike to work, parks it in an Amazon bike locker and showers before starting at about 8 a.m. He'll break for a spinach, avocado and almond milk smoothie while catching some sun in a courtyard where other Amazonians congregate to eat lunch.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Wilhite is glad he picked the Amazon job over opportunities he considered in Silicon Valley that would have required long commutes by car. The way he sees it, "one of the best recruiting tools Amazon has is if people come interview on a nice day, and people are sitting outside having lunch from a food truck.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-56635275307253434952016-07-01T06:37:00.002-07:002016-07-01T06:37:28.885-07:00How Amazon Triggered a Robot Arms Race (BW)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: large;">In 2012 Jeff Bezos scooped up warehouse automation firm Kiva. Everyone else is still trying to catch up.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">An Amazon warehouse is a flurry of activity. Workers jog around a manmade cavern plopping items into yellow and black crates. Towering hydraulic arms lift heavy boxes toward the rafters. And an army of stubby orange robots slide along the floor like giant, sentient hockey pucks, piled high with towers of consumer gratification ranging from bestsellers to kitchenware.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Those are Kiva robots, once the marvel of warehouses everywhere. Amazon whipped out its wallet and threw down $775 million to purchase these robot legions in 2012. The acquisition effectively gave Jeff Bezos, its 52-year-old chief executive, command of an entire industry. He decided to use the robots for Amazon and Amazon alone, ending the sale of Kiva's products to warehouse operators and retailers that had come to rely on them. As contracts expired, they had to find other options to keep up with an ever-increasing consumer need for speed. The only problem was that there were no other options. Kiva was pretty much it. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">It's taken four years, but a handful of startups are finally ready to replace Kiva and equip the world's warehouses with new robotics. Amazon's Kiva bots proved this kind of automation is more efficient than an all-human workforce. The new robots being rolled out look different, partly because the industry is still experimenting and partly because of patent issues. Some focus on picking items off shelves, others zoom around with touch screens. All are aimed at saving retailers money as they race to get their wares to your doorstep as quickly as possible.</span></div>
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<img alt="Kiva Systems LLC robots are used at the Amazon.com Inc. fulfillment center on Cyber Monday in Tracy, Calif." height="424" src="https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ikkvL1UWnBzI/v0/488x-1.jpg" width="640" /></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Amazon has about 30,000 Kiva robots scuttling about its warehouses across the globe. Dave Clark, the retailer's senior vice president of worldwide operations and customer service, estimated the addition of the bots reduced operating expenses by about 20 percent. According to an analysis by Deutsche Bank, adding them to one new warehouse saves $22 million in fulfillment expenses. Bringing the Kivas to the 100 or so distribution centers that still haven't implemented the tech would save Amazon a further $2.5 billion.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">“To be great in e-commerce, you need to be sophisticated inside the warehouse,” said Karl Siebrecht, chief executive at Flexe, which bills itself as the Airbnb for warehouse space. Amazon was the first company to confront the challenge of picking a virtually endless variety of goods from warehouse shelves and combining them in a single box for home delivery. Now that e-commerce is a growing part of the retail trade, more companies are paying attention. “The case for automation is building across the industry,” Siebrecht said. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">But it's really only Amazon that has this kind of technology at scale, thanks in large part to Kiva. The world's biggest retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Macy's Inc., and Target Corp., have yet to populate their warehouses with widespread robotic systems. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">They rely on the old method—otherwise known as humans: Hordes of pickers and packers who send boxes down conveyor belts.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">For the new breed of robot makers, the potential market is wide open. Logistics companies that run their own warehouses started designing automatons while ambitious engineers saw the hole Bezos blew in the market and jumped in. One startup was even founded by former Kiva employees. The race to automate was on.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The modern warehouse is a rectangular box with 40-foot high ceilings, loading docks on both sides, and often, thousands of parking spaces for staff that swells during peak shopping seasons. Lately retailers have been demanding something new: floors that approach the Platonic ideal of flatness, a feature that makes life easier for the technologists managing fleets of warehouse robots. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">While automation has long been the looming threat to industrial workers, there's reason to think their situation is about to become worse. There were 856,000 warehouse workers in May, according to seasonally-adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The average wage for those workers is about $12 an hour, said David Egan, head of industrial research for the Americas at commercial real estate firm CBRE Group. Minimum wage hikes being considered and enacted nationwide could drive labor costs higher, especially in locations close to city centers—sites that are in high demand as retailers chase Amazon into the realm of same-day delivery. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Investing in automated distribution centers may offer companies a hedge against such uncertainty, though it will come at the expense of an increasing number of Americans who rely on warehouse work to survive. Not only could robots pare labor costs over the long term, they may protect employers against labor shortages, a particularly scary proposition for the biggest retailers come Christmas time. Robots can help improve speed and accuracy and increase productivity per square foot of warehouse space at a time when the growth of e-commerce is driving up commercial rents.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">All these imperatives have led most big warehouse users to experiment with new types of automation. “Some companies are implementing in a big way, and the majority are doing at least a pilot project on one small area or in one warehouse building,” said Raj Kumar, a partner at consulting firm AT Kearney. That includes Walmart, which has been using robots to ship apparel from its e-commerce website, he said. Walmart, which didn't respond to an email requesting comment, has also been experimenting with flying drones that photograph warehouse shelves as part of an effort to reduce the time it takes to catalogue inventory.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">"Warehouses are very high tech places," said Bruce Welty, co-founder and chairman of Locus Robotics, a firm that's developed bots to work alongside, rather than replace, human workers. "Because the only way you can take costs out is automation."</span></div>
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A warehouse robot from Locus Robotics</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Amazon takes its marbles and goes home</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Locus is a spinoff of a company called Quiet Logistics, which owns two warehouses in Massachusetts, a gateway of sorts for e-commerce goods being distributed across America's northeast corridor. Welty and his co-founders based their distribution business on Kiva's robots. They built software systems around the Kiva bots to improve efficiency as they moved goods for such retailers as Zara, Gilt, and Bonobos. Then Amazon blew it all up.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">"I said once to my board—casually, almost as a joke, 'Boy, we’d really be screwed if Amazon bought this company,'" said Welty. "But I never really thought this would happen." Such a move was unprecedented in warehousing: the mass withdrawal of one specific type of technology. Usually, one company would buy another and keep selling the tech to all the usual customers. That's where the money was, after all. Not Amazon. It wanted the Kivas all for itself. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Amazon declined to comment. </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">So in early 2014, Quiet Logistics decided to take the leap. Instead of using someone else's technology, it would develop its own. Welty hired a team of roboticists and engineers. Within a year, they had a prototype. Within two years, Locus was up and running, and then spun off into its own company. In May, it raised $8 million in venture capital funding. Thus far, Locus robots can only be found humming along the corridors of Quiet Logistics warehouses, but the company says it signed on with three major retailers for pilot projects that may start by summer's end. It also said it plans to add up to a dozen warehouses over the next year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Locus's robotic minions are much smaller than their Kiva counterparts. A stand shoots up from the Locus robot's circular base with a platform to place bins full of goods. A touch screen is mounted at chest-level, like a podium on wheels, so the bot can tell workers what it needs. Rather than haul around entire pods of merchandise, the Locus bots scurry to warehouse workers and prompt them with a touchscreen. Human workers, each in charge of a particular zone, retrieve the items and give them to the robots, which then move on to the next spot. Laborers won't get exhausted from walking miles each day, and the warehouse isn't limited by the A-to-B nature of conveyor belts. Perhaps it's an example of humans and bots working in perfect harmony. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Fetch Robotics, based in San Jose, makes a warehouse robot that follows workers around, catching the items they pick off the shelves. Harvest Automation, based in Billerica, Mass., sells a similar version. There are also European companies that specialized in earlier generations of warehouse automation, often revolving around conveyor belts and systems that moved goods along track-mounted shuttles. While many of the new systems focus on moving stuff around, a whole generation of robots is trying to automate the picking process—grabbing items off shelves—through more dexterous methods. There's Toru, a bot from German firm Magazino that can grab individual items, for example. And 6 River Systems, a Boston-based startup founded by some former Kiva executives, is currently running pilot programs for new, as-yet-undisclosed products.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">"It's a perfect storm of opportunity," said Welty of the onslaught of competition. "Kiva paved the way, but it only got us partially there."</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Next step: Automated drones</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Amazon seems to realize that. As other warehouses become more efficient, so must Amazon's. At its robotics lab in an industrial complex carved out of the woods in North Reading, Mass., surrounded by electronics and biopharmaceutical firms in the state's tech-firm heartland, Amazon is working on all sorts of automation in the hopes of cutting costs and speeding fulfillment. Alongside the Kivas, Amazon is working on automated drones as well. And those are just the robots it's revealed to the public.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">"I have as no idea if this is as far as Amazon wants to take it," said Jason Helfstein, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co. "Do you get into autonomous vehicles? Self-driving trucks?"</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">In March, robotics companies flocked to a California resort for a secret conference hosted by Amazon. Over three sweltering days at the Parker Palm Springs, attendees were treated to talks and seminars on everything from artificial intelligence to space exploration. Representatives from Intel Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp., roboticists from all sorts of firms, and academics from nearby University of California-Berkeley and far away Zurich showed up. So did Bezos, who sipped single-malt whiskey, chatted with guests, and hit the conference stage wearing a robotic suit. Ron Howard, the film director (whose portfolio includes the 1995 docudrama Apollo 13), made an appearance. Robo-arms dueled with Star Wars lightsabers. Amazon served grapes and drinks on tables mounted atop bright orange Kivas.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Guests were warned not to share details, and Seattle-based Amazon remains silent about its robot tactics. Executives have said almost nothing about the Kiva acquisition over the past four years. On rare occasions, Bezos shares tidbits of his other robot-adjacent operations. In 2014, he said Amazon's drone fleet is on its 10th or 11th iteration. In June, the CEO divulged that Amazon has been working on artificial intelligence for four years and now devotes more than 1,000 staffers to it. "It's probably hard to overstate how big of an impact it's going to have on society over next 20 years," he said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Earlier this year, Amazon renamed Kiva: The newly christened Amazon Robotics team is searching for a head of robotics to help build a "new robotic platform," according to an Amazon job posting on LinkedIn.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>The humans most at risk</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">As promising as all this technology may be, robots aren’t going to do away with human-run warehouses entirely—not yet, anyway. The flesh-and-blood variety is still considered better for high-value work like making sure the right product goes in the right box.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Some of the new systems can pluck products off shelves, such as one made by Pittsburgh-based IAM Robotics. It uses an autonomous vehicle topped with a swiveling arm that grabs items as small as a pillbox, using a suction cup. Even this approach requires a human being to carefully stock shelves so the robot's selection is precise, said Dean Starovasnik, practice director for distribution engineering design at supply chain consulting firm Peach State Integrated Technologies.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">About half the human labor in warehouses slogs away on simple, arduous tasks that involve moving stuff around—doing work that's the equivalent of restocking shelves in a grocery store. It's strenuous work, with employees often walking more than a dozen miles a day as part of their job. As new robots become available, particularly to e-commerce warehouses with vast inventories and complex packing operations, these are the people whose jobs will be most at risk. </span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-68516873033920017042016-06-29T06:43:00.000-07:002016-06-29T06:43:00.220-07:00The Story of Britain’s Biggest Insider-Trading Trial (BW)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">O<i>peration Tabernula was eight years, and $20 million, in the making.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Iraj Parvizi, aka Fatty or the Mad Punter, a Bentley-driving, racehorse-owning Iranian, whose life had been one endlessly escalating wager, walked to the witness box with uncharacteristic anxiety. His hands shook, and he was dressed carelessly, in jeans, sneakers, and an untucked shirt. Parvizi was on trial in London for participating in what prosecutors described as the biggest insider-trading ring in U.K. history, and four co-defendants, the other alleged conspirators, looked on from the dock. It was Week 13 of the proceedings, a Wednesday in April, and Parvizi faced years in prison if convicted. Once he’d taken his place, his barrister reminded him: Just be yourself. The Mad Punter smiled and took control of the courtroom.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Resting one foot on a nearby chair, Parvizi described his anarchic life in the markets. “There are no rules,” he said. “Anyone can start a rumor. It’s just gung-ho, go for it, do what you want.” The jurors, who’d struggled to stay awake during discussions of contracts-for-difference and margin calls, were rapt, as if Parvizi were a different species. He’d gone from making doner kebabs to transacting with royals, he said, developing a network that never stopped gossiping about stocks. Three days into Parvizi’s testimony, prosecutors tried to show that his gains were the result of an illegal advantage. How had he traded up a fortune when ordinary investors struggle to get single-digit returns?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">“You’re making out like I’m the only liar in the stock market,” Parvizi said. He described a world where rumors circulate on phone screens, fabricated stories are fed to a gullible press, and returns correlate with whom you know. The only difference between stocks and any other form of gambling, he said, as if talking to a roomful of children, is that the stakes are higher. His co-defendants nodded in agreement.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">“When I was arrested,” Parvizi said at another point, “I was thinking, ‘Why isn’t every trader in the market being arrested?’ Where does insider trading start, where does it stop?”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">In a gallery at the back of the chamber, it was a small team of investigators’ turn to be nervous. Some of them had devoted eight years to the case. Operation Tabernula, as it was known, was a landmark for the Financial Conduct Authority, a rebuttal to critics who said the regulator was too soft. The FCA had compiled 46 binders of evidence and 320 hours of surveillance audio. But this wasn’t the U.S., where the government has a well-rehearsed routine of flipping targets and locking in plea deals. The men in the Tabernula dock liked their odds with a jury. In the same courthouse three months earlier, the FCA’s sister agency, the Serious Fraud Office, had seen a different trophy case collapse. The competence of British financial regulation was on trial, too.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Throughout the proceedings, the five defendants sat in a neat diagram of their alleged scam. In the front corner sat Martyn Dodgson, 44, a red-haired banker, dressed in chinos and boat shoes. To his left was Andrew “Grant” Harrison, 46, an olive-skinned New Zealander with slicked-back hair. Both had worked at investment banks, in positions that let them know in advance when companies were going to make deals.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">In the row behind them sat a second pair—these two, major-league day traders. One was Parvizi. The other was Benjamin Anderson, a septuagenarian with a grandfatherly smile. Raised in Glasgow, the son of a grocer, he was now worth £100 million (about $142 million). These two, prosecutors said, had taken Dodgson’s and Harrison’s inside information and traded on it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Finally, sitting apart from the others, was Andrew Hind, 56, a weasel-thin oddball with a degree in decision theory, a background in accounting, and a pair of reading glasses on top of his head. The government said Hind was the connection between the guys with the information and the guys with the money—a linchpin who ran operational security and distributed the profits.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">When the trial began, in January, prosecutors said the group had netted at least $10 million through insider trading. What made the case fascinating—what had the entire London financial scene watching and waiting for the precedent it might set—was that the defendants’ version of events wasn’t so different from that of the prosecution. Parvizi and the others acknowledged joining up to trade. They acknowledged disguising their activities with encrypted devices and burner phones. But, they maintained, they’d never knowingly traded on information that was, legally speaking, “insider.” The men said their investments, even those that were incredibly well-timed, stayed on the legal side of the line between privileged information and well-informed rumor.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The trial ran for four months, and at times Courtroom 3 became a circus. Anderson suffered a heart scare after two days on the stand, repeatedly delaying the proceedings. A reality-TV star sat in the audience. Harrison, making the most of the judge’s direction that the men could come and go as they pleased, barely showed up. Parvizi maintained his cool, even when his character was being savaged. During cross-examination, the lead prosecutor observed that lying appeared to come easily to him. Matter-of-factly, Parvizi replied, “Of course.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Dodgson breezed through childhood in Lancaster, a pretty river town in the north of England, with a cricket bat under one arm. In 1993 he left home for London, and after a few years charmed the City’s elite investment banks, getting hired first at J.P. Morgan Cazenove and then at UBS as a corporate broker—a kind of professional glad-hander who smooths relations between companies and shareholders. Dodgson specialized in financial firms. Whenever one of UBS’s clients engaged in takeover talks or considered raising equity, Dodgson discreetly gauged how the move would go down with investors.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Dodgson had to know finance and economics, but really his job was about relationships. Despite its multitrillion-dollar size, the London equity market was a cozy place. The same institutional investors dealt with all the biggest firms, and Dodgson knew everybody. Witty and gregarious, he started an annual pub quiz night for investors and executives.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Then, in July 2001, at age 29, he went to his brother’s stag party in London. Dodgson’s brother worked at Topshop, and among the attendees was Hind, the fashion retailer’s onetime financial director. Hind was 41 and somewhat socially awkward, but he impressed Dodgson with his intelligence, connections, and wealth. The men lived near each other and began to meet for pints. The conversation always came back to the markets, and sometime around 2003 they struck an alliance. Hind had access to capital, prosecutors would later establish, and his young friend had a head full of potentially market-moving information. Hind would front the cash and arrange the trades; Dodgson would take half the gains or losses.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">English law defines inside information as that which isn’t generally available and would be likely to have a significant effect on the price of a security if made public. For a crime to be committed, a person leaking inside information, or a person trading on it, must be aware that the material is privileged. To stay well clear of the line, banks have further rules about what an employee can and cannot do. Dodgson kept his arrangement with Hind quiet, knowing it would never pass muster with his employer.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Their trades made money, and Dodgson started to keep a spreadsheet of everything he was owed. In one column, he tracked progress toward a dream figure, £5 million, enough to retire from finance and maybe enter academia. Rather than transfer the winnings between bank accounts, which might have set off alarms, Hind often paid his partner in kind: £210,000 in home renovations and British Airways flights. Hind also gave Dodgson cash—on one occasion, he handed him £50,000 over a curry. Both men ploughed their profits back into small businesses. Hind dabbled in black vodka, high-end watches, and real estate. In 2006, after an introduction from a mutual associate, he flew to Dubai to meet a potential investor.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>In 1977, Parvizi, the son of an Iranian diplomat</b>, was sent to England for an education. When the revolution struck in 1979, his family lost everything. Parvizi didn’t finish school and spent his early adulthood drifting between jobs—double-glazing salesman, pizza delivery boy, kebab-shop worker. At 22 or 23, living in a seaside town in Kent, he went to a local poker game and saw a new face: a London gentleman named George Maxwell-Brown.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The new guy cleaned the Kent lads out. As the others cursed their luck, calling the man a hustler, Parvizi simply shook the stranger’s hand and said, “Thanks for the lesson.” Maxwell-Brown, impressed by his attitude, gave Parvizi his card, and soon after a job at his London business, which provided short-term loans to wealthy foreigners looking to buy assets in the U.K. Parvizi began mingling with Nigerian chiefs and Saudi princes and soon branched out on his own. He drove Bentleys and Ferraris; opened a combination spa-boutique-restaurant; and invested widely, in diamonds, property, and horses. In the 1990s he started betting on equities.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">In 2000, at a stockbroker charity dinner, Parvizi met Anderson, then 56 and a legend in day-trader circles. Mathematically gifted, he’d created an eight-figure fortune out of nothing. A self-described parsimonious Scot, he shunned the trappings of wealth and reinvested his profits in areas from biotechnology to oil. Like Dodgson and Hind, Parvizi and Anderson made a pact to trade together, despite their obvious differences. Six weeks after Parvizi bought Anderson a Bentley, a gift after a particularly big win, Anderson gave it back, saying it was “too juicy”—it guzzled too much fuel.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">With no formal training, Parvizi had little understanding of the minutiae of finance. He traded essentially without limits, gambling millions at 90 percent leverage; he’d later tell the court that he spread false rumors to move stocks. Parvizi moved to Dubai in 2003. In 2006, when his earnings totaled some £70 million, he took the meeting in Dubai with Hind, in an upmarket hotel lobby. Parvizi agreed to lend him £1 million for a new property venture. Other types of deals soon followed.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">After that 2006 meeting, Hind and Dodgson, the fixer and the banker, now had access to the vast trading power of Parvizi and, through him, Anderson. At trial a decade later, prosecutors alleged that Dodgson would sniff out opportunities and pass them on to Hind, who handed them to the moneymen, Parvizi and Anderson, to execute the trades. Parvizi and Anderson acknowledged making the transactions but said that they dealt with only Hind and never knew if the information came from an insider. Dodgson, from his end of the operation, said he never knew who placed the bets.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Hind tried to keep the arrangement secret. He bought untraceable pay-as-you-go phones and made payments in cash and via Swiss bank accounts. In painstaking but opaque records, he referred to each member of the group by a nickname: The paunchy Parvizi was “Fatty,” and Dodgson was “Fruit.” (Privately, Parvizi called Hind “Nob,” British slang for the male member. Anderson, who was more polite, softened that to “Nobu.”) Later, Hind bought six “iron keys,” encrypted USB sticks that leave no trace after being plugged in. On an iPod he kept a memo titled “Dollar Operations Risks” that listed the group’s potential exposures, such as “fruit detection”—an apparent reference to the possibility of Dodgson getting caught. Outside of business, Hind was equally fastidious. He was fanatical about food, writing detailed notes on quinoa and the dangers of olive oil. When the financial crisis hit, he stocked up on canned goods and built an armory of spears, hockey sticks, and baseball bats.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The group’s first major score, according to the prosecution, came in October 2007. Dodgson had moved to Lehman Brothers, and his colleagues were advising Carlsberg on its bid with Heineken to acquire the U.K. brewer Scottish & Newcastle. On Oct. 15, Dodgson’s co-workers were readying a presentation on the deal, code-named Project Rainbow. Dodgson called or texted Hind six times that day. Records first show Hind looking up Scottish & Newcastle’s ticker, then Parvizi. The next morning, Parvizi and Anderson, using eight different brokerage accounts, started assembling a bet worth more than £30 million.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Rumors of a takeover hit the wider market on Oct. 17, and at 11:47 a.m. Scottish & Newcastle confirmed them. One minute later, Parvizi and Anderson started closing out their positions. The shares jumped 18 percent, and they made a £4.4 million profit. Spreadsheets later found in Hind’s home showed he received £562,000, of which half was reserved for Dodgson. Parvizi and Anderson would later say in court that Scottish & Newcastle had been hyped as a takeover target in the press for months, and their position at the moment the rumors were confirmed was a coincidence.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">It was a sensational start, but there were only so many big-ticket mergers-and-acquisitions deals to trade on. Expanding into small- and mid-cap companies would offer more opportunities. A few weeks after the beer deal, Dodgson set up a lunch with Harrison, a tall, suave former colleague from UBS who now worked at the stockbroker Panmure Gordon. The New Zealander agreed to join the group. Hind nicknamed him “Little.” At trial, Harrison would say he was recruited by Hind only for his general market knowledge and not for specific intelligence about his clients.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">One of Harrison’s clients was NCipher, an internet security company. A few months after the lunch, shares in the company had fallen. Harrison was one of a limited number of people who knew the company had received two takeover offers, and prosecutors would later allege he passed that information to Hind. On May 8, 2008, Parvizi and Anderson bought shares worth £168,000. On July 8, Harrison e-mailed a colleague to say a deal had been struck; Parvizi and Anderson bought an additional £669,000 the next day and more the day after that. On July 10, when NCipher notified the market it was in late-stage takeover talks, the share price jumped 73 percent. Parvizi and Anderson made a £724,000 profit. Hind’s records show Harrison received £41,000. An electronic Post-it note from the time, later retrieved on Harrison’s PC, had four characters: “n+41.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Prosecutors said that from 2006 to 2010, the group made investments in 59 companies, at least six of which they alleged crossed the line into insider trading. But that was a tiny fraction of the scores of transactions Parvizi and Anderson made each week. The pair had traded prolifically for years, using dozens of brokerage accounts. Later, they accused prosecutors of cherry-picking the trades where they’d profited and ignoring the many where they’d lost out.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">In the meantime, Parvizi kept living as only he could. He owned thoroughbreds, including a Breeders’ Cup champion, and played poker with Premier League footballers in the cordoned-off Red Room at Les Ambassadeurs, the casino from Dr. No. Parvizi would bet on anything. He once wagered £5,000 on which wall a fly would land on—and won.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">In the spring of 2005, London’s moneymen had little cause to fear their overseer, the Financial Services Authority. Funded not by taxpayers but by the industry it was meant to guard, the FSA had a mandate to foster market stability, protect consumers, and reduce financial crime. At the last, it was struggling. The FSA had just been forced to reduce a fine on an insurance company after admitting a string of errors, and a formal review of its enforcement abilities was under way.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The agency’s headquarters were in a slightly dated structure in Canary Wharf, literally in the shadows of financial-company skyscrapers. One day that spring, in a seventh-floor boardroom, three executives were interviewing candidates for the job of head of enforcement. They asked one of the finalists, Margaret Cole, how she’d fix the FSA. Cole had an answer ready: “Insider dealing.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">It was a surprisingly radical suggestion. The FSA had never prosecuted anyone for insider trading. The agency saw itself more as a facilitator than as a watchdog and took the view that dodgy behavior could usually be handled with a stern phone call to a bank’s chairman. But Cole had come from the private sector, where success was measured in results. Birdlike, with sandy hair and intelligent eyes, she was a litigator who’d made her name helping pensioners swindled by the media tycoon Robert Maxwell, before he fell off his yacht and drowned.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Cole got the job. A few weeks later, she attended an internal briefing on a suspected insider-trading ring. One of the conference room walls had a vast diagram linking individuals and companies around the world. Maybe things aren’t so dire after all, Cole thought. She asked, “When will we get to a prosecution?” A staffer replied, “About four years.” Cole returned to the FSA board and told them they didn’t have a single worthwhile criminal insider-trading case. They’d have to start from scratch.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Over the next two years, Cole eliminated about a third of the agency’s enforcement staff and set up a mixed team of lawyers, IT specialists, forensic accountants, and investigators, drawing from both inside and outside the agency. She also increased the FSA’s powers. She successfully lobbied the British government to extend the law to allow the FSA to offer plea deals to cooperative suspects, as U.S. regulators do. And she persuaded the Serious Organised Crime Agency (SOCA), a law enforcement unit focused on drugs and gangs, to lend its surveillance powers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Cole also invested millions in technology to detect unusual market activity. The FSA began to better scrutinize the “suspicious transaction reports” (STRs) that brokerages file on customers who change their behavior or go on improbable streaks. These efforts started to produce prosecutions, albeit minor ones: a solicitor and his father-in-law; a dentist and his son; a group of opportunists who worked in the printing rooms of investment banks. But Cole wanted to go after organized, habitual offenders with links to the biggest firms.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">On Oct. 17, 2007, a spread-betting firm filed an STR on traders who’d made a killing on the Scottish & Newcastle deal. Cole’s team recognized two names that had cropped up on such lists before: Anderson and Parvizi. The investigators built profiles of the pair. For years, they found, Parvizi and Anderson had beaten the market with incredible regularity. In the past, the FSA would have done little. Now it asked SOCA’s plainclothes officers to tail the men.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Anderson kept an office on the ground floor of a gray stone building in Belgravia, a gracious neighborhood of Georgian houses and private garden squares. In August 2008 the police broke in and installed a bug behind the refrigerator. Two months later, on a mild morning amid the financial crisis, Parvizi came over to talk to the man he affectionately called “Uncle.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The two men discussed a debt Hind had run up, and after a time Parvizi walked out of the office and into a waiting silver BMW 4x4. Hind was sitting in the driver’s seat and pulled into the London traffic. A police photographer captured the moment from across the street. Less than an hour later, Parvizi was back inside the office. Hind had agreed to pay back the money he owed, he assured Anderson. And that wasn’t all.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">“Deutsche Bank,” Parvizi said. “He’s working at Deutsche Bank.” Without using Dodgson’s name, Hind had told Parvizi that Dodgson had again changed employers, this time from Lehman to the German investment bank. It was one of London’s biggest M&A advisers and a potential fountain of lucrative intelligence.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">“He says he’s hungry,” Parvizi told Anderson. Dodgson had “done his bollocks”—slang for going nearly broke. “Because you know he worked for Morgan?” Parvizi said. “He says he got f---ed on Lehman’s shares as well.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Then Parvizi uttered a phrase that would haunt him at trial: “We’ll be the only ones getting it.” Prosecutors said it was a reference to getting nonpublic information ahead of the rest of the market. Parvizi said he was simply relaying what Hind had told him and didn’t believe it to be true. Anderson said he didn’t give it any credence because Parvizi was, by his own admission, prone to exaggeration.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Six miles east, on the 27th floor of a building in Canary Wharf, Cole’s investigators listened to the conversation with a mixture of joy and disbelief. Parvizi hadn’t said Dodgson’s name, but by laying out his work history, he’d given the FSA enough to trace the inside man. It was also the first time the FSA had heard about Hind. Cole’s big prosecution was falling into place.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Dodgson had been in bed for four hours when he woke to a banging at his door. It was 5:40 a.m. on March 23, 2010, and he was severely hung over. Almost 18 months had passed since Parvizi had unwittingly outed him, and Cole’s team had spent the time meticulously building a case. Now, waiting on the doorstep of Dodgson’s four-story Hampstead home were more than a dozen police officers and investigators.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">They read Dodgson his rights and piled into the property, ransacking drawers and grabbing papers, laptops, and phones. In a kitchen cupboard, they found a dossier marked “confidential,” which outlined News Corp.’s proposed takeover of BSkyB—documents which, as a financial-sector specialist, he had no reason to possess. Under a bed, in a small, locked red box, was the iron key Hind had bought him three years before.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Shocked and nauseous, Dodgson was driven through the London streets to Holborn police station. At the same time, similar operations were taking place across the capital, in Oxfordshire, and in Kent. Hind was seized at his home in Muswell Hill, along with three more iron keys stashed in a metal wall safe in his study. Parvizi was picked up at the London Clinic, a private hospital in tony Marylebone. He’d contracted a throat infection and was wired to an IV drip when the police entered his room. Anderson was arrested the next day, at Gatwick Airport, as he returned from a holiday in St. Lucia. The authorities weren’t aware of Harrison yet, and his home wouldn’t be searched for another two years. When Dodgson was interviewed that afternoon, he denied everything; Hind, Anderson, and Parvizi, advised by their lawyers, clammed up.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Sixteen locations, including Deutsche Bank’s London headquarters, were targeted by 200 police officers and FSA investigators. Several other individuals were also arrested in relation to a suspected second, loosely connected trading ring. Cole helped coordinate events from a command center on a vacant floor at FSA headquarters. As the evidence started arriving she allowed herself a moment of self-congratulation. Dramatic newspaper accounts appeared within hours. Cole was compared to Eliot Ness, the U.S. agent who brought down Al Capone. The headline in the Evening Standard: “Margaret Cole: The City Ball-Breaker.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">An early conundrum was gaining access to the iron keys. The devices had a security feature that wiped out files after 10 failed password attempts. Several tries in, the authorities were getting desperate. The breakthrough came when they found an e-mail sent by Dodgson, a car fanatic, just before he left Lehman. Included on the list of PINs and passwords was “Lamborghini55.” When they tried it on his iron key, it worked. Among the unlocked files was a balance sheet, itself protected with the code “maserati,” that detailed Dodgson’s shifting assets and liabilities. One column, headed “trading,” laid out transfers between him and Hind.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Anderson had made hand-scrawled records in notepads that made little sense at first glance. Parvizi kept virtually no records. Hind had a detailed chronicle of the arrangement, but his notes were shrouded with codes and shorthand.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Eventually, the forensic team linked the various documents. On a master spreadsheet, Hind had listed the companies the group had traded in, the profits, and the sums the various participants were owed. When compared with Anderson’s and Dodgson’s accounts, many of the figures tallied. The records were cross-referenced with trading data and logs of the various e-mails, texts, and phone calls among the men.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">On Oct. 19, 2012, Dodgson, Hind, Anderson, and Parvizi appeared at Westminster Magistrates’ Court charged with conspiracy to commit insider trading. It was the first time they’d all been in the same room.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Southwark Crown Court is an austere 1980s brown-brick cube on the south bank of the Thames. The five defendants—Harrison was charged in 2013—took their seats inside on Jan. 14, 2016. Six years had elapsed since their arrests, during which, unable to work, most had separated or divorced. Cole had left the FSA, which itself was gone—replaced, in a post-crisis reform, by the Financial Conduct Authority.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The new agency was represented by Mark Ellison, a storied criminal lawyer who’d argued for the British government on cases relating to the legality of the invasion of Iraq. The first few days of the trial were gripping: code names, encryption, secret rendezvous. The jurors were enthralled. Then came weeks of details about trading data and phone records, the tedium of any white-collar investigation, and their enthusiasm waned.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The defendants gave their side of the story six weeks in. Hind and Harrison declined to testify. The first to take the stand was Dodgson. Calmly and articulately, he insisted he’d never discussed confidential client information with Hind, and that the BSkyB documents in his kitchen cupboard must have been picked up from a printer at work by mistake.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Anderson, in a woolen sweater, had the demeanor of a kindly elder statesman. Only when Ellison probed him about the suspicious timing of the trades and the bugged conversation in his office did a bite creep into Anderson’s Scottish lilt. Many of the companies they invested in were long known to be M&A targets, he said. If they had access to price-sensitive information, why had they lost so much money on other trades?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">And then there was Parvizi’s testimony. Jurors laughed as he explained how nothing he said could ever be taken at face value, because he was an incurable exaggerator—a habit he referred to as “adding VAT,” after the British sales tax, to his comments. I’ll give you an example, Parvizi told Ellison in a vicious tone: “You’re a very, very handsome man.” The courtroom roared. For the FCA investigators in the gallery, it was torture.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Only on the third day, when Ellison’s cross-examination began, did things appear to unravel. Parvizi’s defense was essentially that the entire market was built on bluster. He maintained he’d never known the basis of Hind’s information. In his world, he said, it was an unspoken rule never to ask the source of a tip. “In every rumor there is uncertainty,” he said, dismissing the idea that he was ever in receipt of a sure thing. But Parvizi also volunteered that he’d started a few rumors: He described phoning a Financial Times journalist to “plant the seed” about a potential bid for Sky and told how he’d made money on a penny stock by fabricating a story about a Malaysian businessman.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The judge abruptly stopped the proceedings and sent the jury out. Parvizi appeared to have admitted to making misleading statements—a criminal offense, but not one he was charged with. The judge advised Parvizi that he didn’t have to answer any further questions that might incriminate him. Parvizi was aghast. As far as he was concerned there was only one rule: Thou shalt not trade on what thou knowest to be inside information. When Ellison explained that there were quite a few other laws—a whole book of them, in fact—Parvizi began to flounder. “If everyone told the truth,” he said, looking around the courtroom for support, “the stock market would not move.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The jury deliberated from April 25 to May 9. Hind read a textbook. Parvizi checked stock prices on his phone. He’d recently changed his WhatsApp profile picture to an image of two dice—one that read “guilty,” the other “not guilty.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Finally the jury returned and read its verdict for each man in turn. The first two, Dodgson and Hind, were found guilty—and then Parvizi, Anderson, and Harrison were all acquitted. Harrison patted Dodgson’s shoulder, and Anderson squeezed Hind’s hand. Parvizi left immediately, without acknowledging his co-defendants, exiting the courtroom with a smile on his lips.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Three days later, Dodgson and Hind returned to be sentenced. Harrison came in support; at one point, returning from a break, he accidentally walked to his old seat in the dock. Dodgson’s and Hind’s lawyers offered mitigating circumstances—young children, drugs, divorce—but Judge Jeffrey Pegden wasn’t moved. Insider dealing is “not a victimless crime,” he said. Pegden gave Dodgson four and a half years, the longest-ever U.K. sentence for the crime, while Hind got three and a half. They were led out of the dock, Hind wheeling a large suitcase behind him.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">At a press briefing, FCA investigators did their best to spin the outcome as a victory. Every conviction sends a message, they said. Three other men arrested in the related March 2010 raids had pleaded guilty, bringing their overall hit rate in the Tabernula probe to five out of eight.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The FSA and then FCA had devoted eight years and $20 million to the case—double the defendants’ alleged profits. And Parvizi and Anderson, whose uncanny trading had triggered the investigation, had walked free. Was it worth it? Cole, who has a new job as general counsel of PwC, thinks before answering. “Insider-trading cases will always be difficult,” she says. “They are time-consuming and expensive, and if you’re a smart City trader, you’re unlikely to leave a smoking gun. But it’s crucial that they stick with it.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Regardless of his acquittal, the Mad Punter is likely done with the stock market. Before the verdict, during his testimony, Parvizi said that no trader would ever talk to him again. “I’m in court to tell the truth,” he said. “The game is up.”</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-7431810361693092412016-06-28T08:51:00.001-07:002016-06-28T08:51:09.236-07:00The Perfect Cup of Coffee Costs $3,500<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<li style="text-align: justify;">Key Details: An espresso machine that can make anything from a concentrated ristretto espresso to a multilayered latte macchiato at the touch of a button.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Competitors: Saeco Xelsis Evo ($2,999), DeLonghi PrimaDonna S De Luxe ($2,999)</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Price: Starts at $3,500</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Why It's Worth It: Because you can easily customize every aspect of your favorite drinks, your morning cappuccino can be perfect and easy.</li>
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Your day’s first cup of coffee, if you make it yourself, is something of a paradox. To do it right demands quality ingredients and equipment, as well as focus and precision—two qualities that most of us are lacking in those perilous pre-caffeinated, post-waking minutes. You could venture out into the world and get your name misspelled on a paper cup, but that is scarcely better. Enter the Jura Z6, which—in a very Swiss way—quickly, precisely, and yes, automatically makes almost any coffee drink to your exact specifications. You no longer need barista skills (or even pants) to get a perfect flat white.</div>
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The Jura even looks different from your typical espresso machine—its aluminum fascia is as sleek as a piece of modern architecture. The 2.4 liter (81 ounce) water tank, lit from beneath in cool blue light, stands like a slim appendage on the left side of the machine. Below the color screen is the bank of height-adjustable nozzles (also architecturally lit) that dispense espresso, water, milk, and foam into your mug.</div>
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On its way, the coffee and milk is touched by a whole lot of proprietary technology and with that, a whole lot of proprietary acronyms. Coffee beans, stored in a 10-oz. hopper on the machine’s top, are ground in a conical burr grinder before water in the I.W.S. (Intelligent Water System) flows through the I.P.B.A.S. (Intelligent Pre Brew Aroma System) and moistens it, allowing it to swell before brewing. </div>
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A P.E.P. (Pulse Extraction Process) then pulses water through the ground espresso, rather than simply flowing steadily, a process that marginally extends the extraction time but makes for a more richly flavored shot with a more pronounced crema. This is often a weak spot for other machines in the category; the Jura Z6 gets it right.</div>
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The iPod-style wheel and button on the top of the machine offers 10 strengths and three temperatures. Likewise, milk and milk foam can each be set to any of 10 temperatures. </div>
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Your drink can also be customized and labeled (and new ones created), so if you like your cappuccino with 2.5 ounces of extra-hot, extra-strong espresso and minimal foam, while your partner wants one that’s only 1.5 ounces of normal temperature, normal strength espresso, and extra foam, each can be easily set, labeled, and saved. The process is not all that different from those first few minutes spent with a brand new car, when you adjust your seats, steering wheel, and stereo to your exact specifications.</div>
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As simple and rewarding as it is to customize your coffee, the aspect of the Z6 you’ll probably come to love most is its speed. It took exactly 94.2 seconds from the time I powered on the machine until the moment I took a first sip of the cappuccino it made. And that included allowing for the machine to come to temperature, perform its startup rinse cycle, and grind the beans. You could probably cut that time in half for your second cup. </div>
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Sure, $3,500 may seem like a lot for an espresso machine. But this is more than that: It’s a daily dose of caffeinated instant gratification, right when you need it most. You might even call it a bargain. </div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-29218905888923709202016-06-27T09:32:00.001-07:002016-06-27T09:32:16.546-07:00Amazon Unveils Online Education Service for Teachers<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Just ahead of the back-to-school season, Amazon is making a major foray into the education technology market for primary and secondary schools, a territory that Apple, Google and Microsoft have heavily staked out.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">On Monday morning, Amazon said that it would introduce an online marketplace with tens of thousands of free lesson plans, worksheets and other instructional materials for teachers in late August or early September.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Called Amazon Inspire, the education site has features that may seem quite familiar to frequent Amazon shoppers. Search bar at the top of the page? Check. User reviews? Check. Star ratings for each product? Check.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">By starting out with a free resources service for teachers, Amazon is establishing a foothold that could expand into a one-stop shopping marketplace — not just for paid learning materials, but for schools’ wider academic and institutional software needs, said Tory Patterson, co-founder of Owl Ventures, a venture capital fund that invests in ed tech start-ups.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">“Amazon is very clearly positioning itself as a disrupter with this move,” Mr. Patterson said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Amazon is joining other tech industry giants in an enormous push to expand the use of technology in the public schools.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Last year, primary and secondary schools in the United States spent $4.9 billion on tablet, laptop and desktop computers, according to a report by Linn Huang, a research director at the International Data Corporation, a market research firm known as IDC. Altogether, schools bought 10.8 million Apple, Google Chrome and Microsoft Windows devices in 2015, he said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Because its devices tend to cost more, Apple accounted for the largest slice of school computer sales, amounting to $2.2 billion, Mr. Huang said. By volume, however, Chromebooks — the inexpensive laptops that run on Google Chrome operating systems — have taken schools by storm, accounting for more than five million devices bought last year, he said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Even so, ed tech industry analysts said the growing market for digital educational materials, which Amazon is entering, is likely to prove much more valuable over time than the school computer market.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Already, nursery through high schools in the United States spend more than $8.3 billion annually on educational software and digital content, according to estimates from the Software and Information Industry Association, a trade group. That spending could grow significantly as school districts that now buy physical textbooks, assessment tests, professional development resources for teachers and administrative materials shift to digital systems.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">In a phone interview, Rohit Agarwal, general manager of Amazon K-12 Education, said the new site was intended to make it easier and faster for teachers to pinpoint timely and relevant free resources for their classrooms.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">“Every teacher should be able to use the platform with zero training,” Mr. Agarwal said. He added: “We are taking a big step forward to help the educator community make the digital classroom a reality.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The site for teachers is not Amazon’s first education venture. In 2013, the company acquired TenMarks, a math instruction site. (Mr. Patterson of Owl Ventures is also a partner at Catamount Ventures, a firm that was an investor in TenMarks.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">In March, the New York City public schools, the largest school district in the country, awarded Amazon a three-year contract, worth an estimated $30 million, to provide e-books to its 1.1 million students.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">In the school market, however, Amazon is competing not just with rival tech companies but with established digital education companies and ed tech start-ups.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">A number of popular platforms already offer instructional materials for teachers. Among them are tes.com, a site based in London with more than eight million users worldwide, and teacherspayteachers.com, a site based in Manhattan that more than two million teachers use regularly.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Like Amazon Inspire, these sites let teachers search for materials by subject matter, like fractions or mitosis, and by grade level. Like Amazon Inspire, tes.com lets teachers download lessons and edit them to suit their students. (Some resources on teacherspayteachers.com may also be edited.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Mr. Agarwal said the company’s new instructional resources site would be able to differentiate itself by being more intuitive for teachers who are Amazon users and by offering compelling new features.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">“With the technology, content and expertise that Amazon has, we believed we could provide value,” he said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Amazon timed its announcement to coincide with ISTE, the annual conference of the International Society for Technology in Education, which about 16,000 teachers and school officials are attending in Denver this week. Other tech giants also unveiled new education ventures during the conference.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">On Sunday, Microsoft said that it was working with ISTE to help schools introduce and integrate technology in the classroom. The project includes training programs for school administrators, online leadership courses developed with edX — a learning platform created by Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology — and services to support schools as they adopt digital learning approaches.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-45906034189929695392016-06-27T07:15:00.001-07:002016-06-27T07:15:11.437-07:00Brexit: 5 ways will affect Tech firms<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The UK public's decision to leave the European Union will impact technology firms operating within Britain in a variety of ways. Here's a breakdown for business and tech professionals.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The UK has voted to leave the EU, leaving British-based technology firms facing uncertainty over the impact on their business.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">It will likely take the UK years to leave the EU. Britain is not expected to begin negotiating its withdrawal until October this year, and that will only be the start of at least two years of negotiations.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The decision to back Leave has various implications for the UK's tech industry and will affect firms' ability to employ non-UK workers, to access research grants, to bypass trade tariffs, and how they handle data.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>1. Access to skills</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Tech firms based in the UK routinely employ EU nationals, but Britain's decision to leave the EU has created uncertainty over whether the practice can continue after the UK brings in new immigration controls.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">UK-based ARM, which designs the chips inside 95% of smartphones, is concerned about the impact on non-UK based workers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"We will watch the negotiations closely, particularly on the subject of visas, as we employ approximately 200 non-UK EU citizens at our Cambridge headquarters," a spokesman said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">While there will be no immediate impact, there are no guarantees that EU workers will be able to continue living in the UK in the long run, according to an assessment by legal experts, who raised the likelihood that individuals would eventually need additional documentation to prove their right to remain.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The Corporate IT Forum (CITF)—the membership organisation for IT leaders at FTSE 250 organizations—is worried about how future recruitment difficulties could worsen existing skills shortages within the tech industry.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"For technology functions based in the UK, the particular concern is over shortages of IT skills and now the increased risk of much more difficult and more costly recruitment of IT professionals from the EU," said Joanna Poplawska, executive director of the CITF.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The British government is facing similar appeals to keep the country open to EU talent from multinationals who operate out of the UK.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"We call on the UK government to adopt a stance in forthcoming negotiations aimed at ensuring that the country's economy remains successful, open, competitive and innovative," said a spokesperson for IBM.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>2. Availability of funding for startups</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The UK has a large and vibrant community of tech startups, many of which are based in East London.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The venture capital that helped many of these companies to get off the ground, and that also attracted EU startups to move to the British capital, could now be under threat, by some estimates.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Jon Moulton, founder of private equity firm Better Capital, told The Financial Times that the Luxembourg-based European Investment Fund is the largest investor in UK venture capital firms and warned the European fund "would probably stop investing in the UK" if Britain left the EU.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Ahead of the referendum vote, none of the UK startups that have grown into unicorns, private companies with a valuation above $1bn, supported Britain leaving the EU.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>3. New trade tariffs</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">A new EU-UK trade deal is expected to take years to agree, with the Leave campaign saying it wants a new deal to be in place by 2020.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Once the UK has left Europe and until a new deal is struck, the UK would trade with the EU under World Trade Organization rules. These rules would see UK exporters paying new EU import tariffs, as well as facing other fresh barriers to trade. The UK would also have to renegotiate the more than 50 free trade deals the EU has with countries ranging from Canada to South Korea.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">However, the impact on UK-based tech firms will obviously be dependent on which regions of the world they do business with.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"Brexit will not have a significant impact on our business as almost all of our earnings come from outside the EU zone," said chip designer ARM.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Those campaigning for Leave claimed that exporters could be compensated for the additional tariffs by the UK government, using money saved on not paying EU membership fees.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>4. No more EU research grants</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The EU funds research grants within British institutions and companies, some of which are technology firms.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Between 2007 and 2013 the EU funded nearly £7bn worth of research. Once British contributions to this funding are taken into account, this worked out as a net gain of about £300m a year for the UK.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">ARM is among those tech firms that expects to lose EU research money as a result of Britain leaving the EU, although it is hopeful that the UK could meet the shortfall.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"We may lose some EU research grants but these have represented less than one percent of our R&D spend in the last three years and we hope to see this picked up by the UK government," a spokesman said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>5. Uncertainty over handling data</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">A questions mark now sits over how tech firms should handle from UK firms and citizens: How they process it and where it can be stored.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The EU is currently in the process of negotiating a new deal for the transatlantic transfer of personal data, under the EU-US Safe Harbor agreement, Privacy Shield. Meanwhile, firms operating in EU member states have until June 2018 to comply with the new General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which sets out far-reaching changes to how organizations handle personal data.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Firms operating in the UK will be bound by these regulations and agreements, at least for the foreseeable future, according to data governance and risk specialist DQM GRC.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"In my view the long term impact of a 'Brexit' on the legislative framework for privacy will probably not be hugely significant," said Peter Galdies, development director at DQM GRC.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">He said the process of leaving the EU was unlikely to begin until at least October this year, and that this would only be the start of drawn-out negotiations.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"There will be a mandatory two-year minimum period in which we remain a member of the EU whilst we negotiate an exit. During this time all existing legislation, including GDPR, will continue as before.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"Many forecast that this process might take much longer, with many estimates between three and six years," said Galdies, adding: "The pressure to negotiate a strong trade deal with the EU will also drive the adoption of "mirroring" legislation—designed to minimise the barriers to continued trade."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The Corporate IT Forum's Poplawska called on the government to move quickly to clarify how companies operating in the UK should proceed with regards to data handling.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"Our members will have many questions that will need to be answered—for example, where we stand with data protection as the EU General Data Protection Regulation was passed recently after four years of negotiations and is due to be implemented across the EU in 2018," Poplawska said.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Multinationals operating out of the UK are also keen to not see new barriers to the free movement of data between UK and EU countries.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"We also encourage leaders throughout Europe to preserve cross-border data flows that drive growth and innovation, and that underpin the worldwide digital economy," an IBM spokesman said.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-23502997362446335272016-06-23T07:59:00.001-07:002016-06-23T07:59:17.487-07:00This Funky New Turbine ...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">...Can Bring Green Energy to Rural Areas</span></div>
<h2 class="lede-dek" itemprop="description" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #262626; font-family: TiemposTextWeb-Regular, Georgia, serif; font-size: 1.5rem; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.875rem; margin: 1.25rem 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
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" 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Iceland may be a cold, hard place to live, but the locals sure have made the most of what they’ve got. The country runs on 100 percent renewable energy, thanks to its geothermal pockets and hydroelectric dams.</div>
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Hello World’s Ashlee Vance paid a visit to the capital city of Reykjavik to see the next part of the green energy story. He found a startup called IceWind that has designed a wind turbine to perform well in low-wind conditions but also to slow itself in high winds to prevent it from catching on fire or ripping apart.</div>
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Today the turbine is used to power the remote summer homes so popular in Iceland and industrial equipment, such as telecommunications gear, that dots the highways. By the end of the year, IceWind expects to export its turbines for use in rural areas throughout the world.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-46911845244281624382016-06-21T10:45:00.001-07:002016-06-21T10:45:10.459-07:00‘OPEC Is Finished’<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">An Iranian professor said Tuesday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is doomed, because of power struggles between Iran and Saudi Arabia that have created serious political fallout.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">“OPEC’s power is not waning — I’m sorry, OPEC is finished,” Hossein Askari, an Iranian professor of business at George Washington University who studies the oil industry, told USA Today. “OPEC is just powerless. They cannot agree to anything, both for political reasons and economic realities.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Saudi Arabia has kept oil prices low to hurt Iran, causing prices to remain low since mid-2014. Iran hasn’t produced much oil recently after seriously investing in its oil sector for years due to sanctions. Simply restoring previous oil production levels is estimated to require a minimum $150 billion of new investment and could cost Iran up to $500 billion over the next five years, according to reports by the country’s state-run news agency. Iran desperately needs the kind of quick cash that only selling oil on the global market can provide.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Since Saudi Arabia refused to slash production at a critical OPEC meeting last November, the price of oil has plunged and is currently below $50 per barrel. These low prices and lack of coordination between the countries weakens OPEC’s power as a cartel.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Conflict between the major oil producers of Saudi Arabia and Iran is escalating, as the Saudis banned ships carrying Iranian crude oil from entering the country’s waters or utilizing its infrastructure in April. The ban has escalated the conflict between the countries and made Iran even more unwilling to cooperate. The Saudi’s have even threatened to increase production by up to a million barrels a day which would vastly lower the price of oil simply to hurt Iran.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">So far, OPEC’s power is weakening because Russia has supported Iran’s position, likely to protect its political interests elsewhere. “Iran has a special situation as the country is at its lowest levels of production. So I think, it might be approached individually, with a separate solution,” Aleksander Novak, Russia’s energy minister, told the state media company Russia Today in March.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">However, this will only work to a point. If the Saudis continue increasing oil production to keep the prices low, it could be devastating to Russia. Low oil prices caused the Russian economy to contract by 3.7 percent in 2015. Russia’s economy will keep shrinking unless oil prices recover to at least $80 per barrel, according to the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Saudi Arabia can increase production because it can likely handle cheap oil better than other OPEC countries, but even it is expecting a budget deficit of $140 billion — roughly 20 percent of the Saudi economy. When compared to 2013’s surplus of $48 billion, the fiscal outlook for the Kingdom looks so dire that the International Monetary Fund warned it could go through its fiscal reserves within five years. Saudi oil export revenues dropped 46 percent in just the last year and the country is selling bonds for the first time since 2007.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Saudi Arabia and Iran have a long-running rivalry, with its roots in religion. Saudi Arabia is a Sunni Islam country, whereas Iran is the home of Shia Islam. The two countries have been engaged in proxy power struggles over the last year, but the Saudi execution of a popular cleric in January immeasurably worsened diplomatic relations.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Cheap oil is good news for America and other net oil importers, especially for the poorest members of society who spend a larger proportion of their incomes buying oil products.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1284669566980001369.post-3103706385131836442016-06-20T07:02:00.002-07:002016-06-20T07:02:30.279-07:00Home Depot sues Visa, MasterCard as PIN battle looms<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Among a bevy of grievances, the do-it-yourself retailer posits that Visa and MasterCard sought to block the adoption of chip-and-PIN on credit card transactions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Home Depot filed an antitrust lawsuit in federal court this week against credit card giants Visa and MasterCard.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Among a bevy of grievances, the do-it-yourself retailer posits that Visa and MasterCard sought to block the adoption of chip-and-PIN on credit card transactions following the migration to EMV payment security standards last October. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Additionally, the retailer argues that chip-and-signature is simply less secure than its chip-and-PIN counterpart.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"Visa and MasterCard know perfectly well that a signature alone, without the additional step of requiring a PIN, provides virtually no protection against many types of payment card fraud," Home Depot said in the lawsuit filed Monday in U.S. District Court for the northern district of Georgia.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Home Depot also contends that Visa and MasterCard chose to enforce the less-secure chip-and-signature standard because the networks collect higher merchant fees for routing signature-based card transactions as opposed to PIN.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">According to data compiled by the U.S. Federal Reserve, transactions routed over Visa's or MasterCard's signature debit networks cost more than twice as much as transactions routed over PIN networks.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"While chip-and-PIN authentication is proven to be more secure, it is less profitable for Visa, MasterCard, and their member banks and it provides a greater threat to their market dominance," Home Depot claimed in the lawsuit. "For years, Visa and MasterCard have been more concerned with protecting their own inflated profits and their dominant market positions than with the security of payment cards used by American consumers and the health of the United States economy."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Home Depot's case against Visa and MasterCard is similar to one Walmart recently filed against Visa. In that case, Walmart says that Visa is precluding the retailer from requiring PINs on all debit card transactions. As a result, Walmart is forced to pay the fees associated with signature-based networks. For world's largest retailer, that figure is in the billions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Interestingly, Walmart did not file charges against MasterCard.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">"This is a broad dispute with Visa over cost that never stops escalating," said Mark Horwedel, head of the Merchant Advisory Group. "The crimes against merchants by the networks are very numerous. From Walmart's perspective, Visa is the leading instigator."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Visa, the world's largest payments network, led the charge for the U.S. migration to EMV chip-card technology. Short for Europay, MasterCard and Visa, EMV is said to reduce fraud in face-to-face, card-present environments via the chip embedded in the cards.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The chip creates a unique impression for each transaction, so the only data flowing through a merchant's point of sale (POS) terminal is a random numerical sequence. The combined chip-and-tokenization process makes it nearly impossible for data thieves to create fraudulent accounts or make counterfeit cards, because the chip itself can not be replicated.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">However, many in the payments and financial technology industry have declared the U.S. rollout of EMV a disaster. First there's the issue of security. While the chip makes new payment cards more difficult to counterfeit, it does not address the issue of lost and stolen cards from being used in person or online -- something a PIN could also address even without the chip.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">In the weeks immediately following the official EMV migration date, merchant groups, consumer advocacy groups and even the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) called attention to the need to adopt chip-and-PIN in order to take full advantage of EMV security.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Secondly, the EMV migration has been significantly more expensive for merchants compared to issuers because of the associated fees. Horwedel estimates that merchants have outspent the issuers by a ratio of 85 percent to 15 percent.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">On the other side of the argument, Visa and MasterCard, along with groups such as the American Bankers Association, have said that requiring PINs with credit card transactions could cause confusion for consumers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Visa has also said that newer, better authentication technologies -- such as biometric and geo-location verification -- are just over the horizon, negating the need to focus solely on PIN. On this particular issue, Horwedel said it's "all cover for the fact they [Visa] don't want issuers to be forced to move to PIN, but they have not come up with a solution."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">So far Visa has not commented on either lawsuit. But in terms of its stance on PIN, Visa has said in the past that the credit card processor does not take a position against it and that the choice to utilize PIN technology or not is up to the banks and merchants. MasterCard also says it leaves the decision of how to verify cardholder identity -- PIN or signature -- up to the merchant and the issuer.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0