Tuesday, December 16, 2014

The sharing economy: Will self-regulation by startups suffice to protect consumers? (TechRepublic)

By Alex Howard December 15, 2014,
Regulation and the "sharing economy" was the topic of a recent panel discussion in the U.S. House of Representatives. Alex Howard summarizes the highlights. 
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(L to R) David Hantman, John Breyault, Alex Howard, Adam Thierer, Arun Sundararajan at the regulation and sharing economy panel convened by the Internet Caucus.

"Congress should care, but forbear." That was the conclusion of a panel of an academic, a researcher, a consumer advocate, and a tech executive convened by the Internet Caucus in the U.S. House of Representatives in DC last week to consider regulation and the "sharing economy." I was proud to moderate the discussion. It's a timely topic: startups that develop platforms that match the supply of goods and services with demand from mobile consumers are attaining multi-billion dollar valuations and shaking up markets for lodging, transportation, and more.
Three of the participants, Arun Sundararajan, a professor at the NYU Stern School of Business, Adam Thierer, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, and David Hantman, the head of global public policy for Airbnb, all made a case for why legislators and regulators need to take great care in enacting laws and policies that govern companies and startups, lest entrepreneurs be stifled and genuine benefits to consumers be snuffed.
That came as no great surprise: Sundararajan has previously written that government shouldn't regulate the sharing economy, in 2012, and, more recently, about trusting the sharing economy to regulate itself. Thierer just co-authored a paper on the sharing economy and consumer protection regulation (PDF) in which he and his co-authors argue that, "coupled with the Internet and various new informational resources, the rapid growth of the sharing economy alleviates the need for much traditional top-down regulation."
These recent innovations are likely doing a much better job of serving consumer needs by offering new innovations, more choices, more service differentiation, better prices, and higher-quality services. In particular, the sharing economy and the various feedback mechanism it relies upon helps solve the tradition economic problem of "asymmetrical information," which is often cited as a rationale for regulation. We conclude, therefore, that "the key contribution of the sharing economy is that it has overcome market imperfections without recourse to traditional forms of regulation. Continued application of these outmoded regulatory regimes is likely to harm consumers."
John Breyault, vice president of Public Policy, Telecommunications and Fraud at the National Consumers League, made arguments for consumer protection within the services using existing statutes and posited that thetechnological innovation that various startups are deploying benefit consumers. Hantman, for his part, recounted the steps that Airbnb now takes to protect both hosts and users of its services in the event of disputes and issues.
One narrative of the sharing economy has often been that these platforms enable ordinary people to earn income renting a room or driving for a car service in their spare time, and others to rent part of a good or service, as opposed to having to own it. A countervailing narrative is that the business tycoons of Airbnb, one of the most well-known examples of the sharing economy, are professional operators, not amateurs, and that other markets for goods and services will have similar dynamics. Hantman argued that their data shows the majority of the 700,000 or so Airbnb listings in New York City alone are offered by individuals, not businesses.
As anyone who has used a mobile device to request on-demand transportation to those who have found flexible accommodation knows, these kinds of services can offer improved services at lower prices. (I've used Uber around the US, and we were Airbnb hosts for a few months.) The question of where liability rests, however, is an important legal matter that came up during the discussion. The consensus answer was that "it depends," but one emerging approach is to make sure operators of vehicles and hosts carry sufficient insurance.
Given that the forum was held in Washington, DC, it was no surprise to hear the question of taxes and the sharing economy also came up. (Once something exists, it seems people in DC will inevitably wonder if it's taxable.)
In this land of lawyers and lobbyists, the issue of legal liability is never far away. In the sharing economy, the question is often unresolved. For instance, if the operator of a vehicle used in a sharing economy startup kills someone while driving, who is liable? I asked the panel this question, along with the related issue of whether the people on these platforms provide means of "public accommodation," which in turn would mean that some vehicles or residences would need to be accessible. No clear answers there, either, but again, there are existing statutes, like the Americans with Disabilities Act, on the books to apply if violations are found.
A clear tension point is how and where data showing compliance with existing laws and regulations can and should be disclosed. The companies involved aren't sitting idly by on the sidelines, either: as WAMU reported in November 2014, Uber is actively lobbying the municipal government of the District of Columbia toseek changes to a wheelchair-accessible taxi bill, the For-Hire Vehicle Accessibility Amendment Act (PDF). Uber holds that disclosing the data about the numbers of wheelchair-accessible trips that are requested and provided to passengers would pose an "undue regulatory burden" upon the startup.
There's also the issue of discrimination in the sharing economy. On the one hand, "Ubering while black," as Jenna Wortham wrote in Medium and Latoya Peterson described at Racalicious, canenable people of color to order transport when cabs do not stop. While it may cost more to use the premium towncars, an UberX is currently cheaper than a taxi and does not carry any emotional overhead.
On the other hand, as Wortham noted, creating platforms and leaving people using them to self-regulate commercial activity there without oversight could be problematic in the long term.
Michael Luca, an assistant professor of business administration at Harvard Business School, told me that the one clear downside to marketplaces that rely on reputation and build social features like personal information into business transactions is that they can have unintended side effects. "The social nature of the sharing economy is more vulnerable than a traditional economy," he said.
In January, Luca co-published a paper on digital discrimination that surveyed thousands of listings on Airbnb. The study compared black and non-black hosts who had similar apartments, photos, and ratings, and found that the non-black hosts tended to earn 12 percent more than their black peers, suggesting that those black Airbnb hosts were susceptible to some form of social selection and internal biases.
One of the final questions that I brought up regards privacy and trust in the sharing economy, a matter I explored at Wired in November 2014. Information transactions around services, objects, and resources have existed in humanity for thousands of years, from people sharing shelter and food to neighbors borrowing tools to housemates borrowing cars to colleagues and classmates sharing networks, servers, and printers.
Today, these interactions and transactions are rapidly becoming digitized: if an entrepreneur can create a marketplace for a given commodity or service, someone will try to do so. That means there's going to be data generated where there was none before, which will give the owner of the platform strategic insight and business intelligence about the dynamics of the market, and its users.
As sharing economy startups become larger parts of local economies, embedded into how people work, travel, recreate, and shop, the digital exhaust from those actions creates associations and patterns that may be mined for insight, efficiencies, or more nefarious purposes. Location data is powerful, in context. As The Washington Post reported, when access to Uber's internal analytics was granted to a job applicant, he was then able to use it to look up the relative of a politician in DC. Uber now says that it's monitoring and auditing user data access much more robustly, as is Lyft, the ridesharing startup's chief competitor.
These kinds of issues around user data privacy will lead more people to worry about whether they can trust companies like Uberand other players in the sharing economy.
One approach to that issue could be what Zeynep Tufekci, an assistant professor at the School of Information at the University of North Carolina, and Brayden King, an associate professor of management and organizations at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, suggested in an editorial in The New York Times: information fiduciaries, or "independent, external bodies that oversee how data is used, backed by laws that ensure that individuals can see, correct and opt out of data collection."
Given a 113th Congress that did not pass surveillance reform, a national data breach law, digital due process, or Freedom of Information of Act reform, it's unlikely that such a body will be created soon, but in the vacuum left behind, the Federal Trade Commission has placed many tech companies under privacy audits. If platform operators in the sharing economy aren't responsible about designing their platforms and applications to deliver security and "privacy by design," they may face the same attention.
Down the road, if discrimination, disability, civil rights, and consumer protections aren't also baked into these services from the start, more members of Congress and parliaments around the world might also start to care about sharing -- and stop forbearing from legislative action.

You can listen to the archived audio of our robust discussion on the audio player at NetCaucus.org or download it directly as an MP3 to listen to at your leisure.

Monday, December 15, 2014

The Relentless Production of Shale Oil Is Breaking OPEC’s Neck (BusinessWeek)


The Relentless Production of Shale Oil Is Breaking OPEC’s Neck

The world’s biggest oil companies faced ruin in the summer of 1931. Crude prices had plummeted. Wildcatters were selling oil from the bonanza East Texas field for a nickel a barrel, cheaper than a bowl of chili. On Aug. 17, Governor Ross Sterling declared a state of insurrection in four counties and sent 1,100 National Guard troops to shut down the fields and bring order to the market. A month later the Railroad Commission of Texas handed out strict production quotas.
That heavy-handed intervention in the free market was remarkable enough. Even more remarkable was who pulled it off. The person in charge of shutting down the wildcatters, National Guard Brigadier General Jacob Wolters, was the general counsel of Texas Co., an ancestor of Chevron (CVX). And the Texas governor who ordered Wolters in was a past president of Humble Oil and Refining, a forerunner ofExxonMobil (XOM). Big Oil played hardball in those days.
History is repeating itself, with a twist. The stressed-out giants of today are Saudi Arabia and its fellows in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The descendants of the 1930s wildcatters are today’s producers of oil from shale, who are driving down the world price of crude by flooding the market with millions of barrels of new oil each day. At $64 a barrel, Brent crude is down 44 percent since June. The twist is that today’s upstarts aren’t draining oil from neighbors’ plots, as happened in the 1930s. And OPEC can’t call in the National Guard against them. All it can do is gape at the falling price of crude and contemplate the destruction of their cartel at the hands of the Americans, whom they thought they had supplanted for good 40 years ago. Energy economist Philip Verleger says shale is to OPEC what the Apple II (AAPL) was to the IBM(IBM) mainframe.
Theories as to why OPEC didn’t reduce quotas at its meeting in Vienna on Nov. 27 are as cheap and abundant as crude in North Dakota. One holds that the Sunnis of Saudi Arabia want to hurt the Shiites of Iran, who need high-priced oil to finance their government. Another, expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, is that the whole thing is a conspiracy to undermine Russia, the world’s biggest oil producer. Yet another is that the Saudis hope to drive oil prices below where it makes sense for American shale producers to invest in new production. But shale producers have lowered their costs so much that in key fields they can make profits at $50 to $70 a barrel. That’s above core OPEC members’ exploration and production costs but below what many need to cover their government spending. “If my calculations are correct, this will go down as one of the worst commodity trading decisions ever,” Wilbur Ross, billionaire investor and chairman of WL Ross (IVZ), wrote in an e-mail.
In fact, prices are being forced down not by any action (or inaction) of the Saudis but by the American shale producers, who are simply producing all the oil they can to maximize their profits. “Collectively, they’re not the most sophisticated folks, especially when it comes to world markets,” says Charles Ebinger, a senior fellow in the Energy Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution.
With apologies to Ebinger, the shale producers don’t need to be sophisticates. Each operator is so small, it can increase production without pushing down the market price. That makes them price “takers,” not price setters. And because shale wells are short-lived, producers don’t have to plan far ahead, says Karr Ingham, a petroleum economist in Amarillo, Texas. Singly the shale busters are nothing. Collectively, their breakneck production is breaking OPEC’s neck. This is the remorseless, leaderless free market at work.
OPEC used to be something to reckon with. For a brief period in the 1970s its influence was so strong, it could set prices to the penny for scores of crudes, says Bhushan Bahree, senior director for OPEC Middle East research at market researcher IHS (IHS). Its power has waned considerably, but until this year Saudi Arabia could still be counted on to cut output for the good of the cartel when gluts emerged. The Saudis’ refusal last month to take one for the team is historic, says Michael Wittner, head of oil research at Société Générale (GLE:FP) in New York. “That is such a tremendous, dramatic change,” he says. “It’s hard to think of a way to exaggerate how fundamental it is.”

Friday, December 12, 2014

The Chinese Government Is Getting Rich Selling Cigarettes (BusinessWeek)


The Chinese Government Is Getting Rich Selling Cigarettes

The China National Tobacco Corp., which serves China’s 300 million smokers, is by far the largest cigarette maker in the world. In 2013 it manufactured about 2.5 trillion cigarettes. Its next largest competitor, Philip Morris International (PM), produced 880 billion.
In terms of market share, China National is bigger than its next five competitors combined; its growing sales have accounted for a net increase in global production, even as volume at its competitors has fallen. While Marlboro remains the most popular cigarette in the world, China National boasts 7 of the top 10 brands, including Red Pagoda Mountain and Double Happiness. In all, the company made 43 out of every 100 cigarettes in the world last year, according to Euromonitor International. Despite its size, China National is little known outside of China: Almost all its cigarettes are sold in the country, where it has no real competition.
A conglomerate on the order of the old Gulf + Western, China National runs more than 160 cigarette brands, manufactured in about 100 factories across the country, and uses its earnings to invest in banks, luxury hotels, a hydroelectric plant, a golf course, and even drugmakers. Most of its money goes to its owner, the Chinese government; the tobacco industry accounts for about 7 percent of the state’s revenue each year, and China National controls as much as 98 percent of the market. All told, the industry in China employs more than 500,000 Chinese. They are among roughly 20 million people who get some income from tobacco, including members of 1.3 million farming households and workers at 5 million retailers, according to government figures. The extent to which the government is interlocked with the fortunes of China National might best be described by the company’s presence in schools. Slogans over the entrances to sponsored elementary schools read, “Genius comes from hard work. Tobacco helps you become talented.”
The government runs China National as a largely opaque monopoly. The company has successfully blocked competition from Western tobacco makers by limiting imports or domestic production by foreign companies. In the past decade, as smoking has ebbed in other parts of the world, China National has been on a remarkable tear, gobbling up market share and building blockbuster brands. It generated about $170 billion in revenue in 2012, more than Apple (AAPL).
While the growth of its cigarette production has slowed, the company is making more money than ever in the same ways its Western competitors do: by pushing premium brands. Some are low-tar, some are organic, and some feature tobacco from American farmers, whose fortunes have risen along with the demand from China. But China National is being challenged as never before. Faced with a mounting death toll from smoking-related diseases, the Chinese government in the last year has issued a flurry of anti-tobacco edicts and proposed reforms.
China National doesn’t seem too concerned. The general manager of the company is Ling Chengxing, 57, the onetime mayor of Fengcheng in southeast China. He began his tobacco career in 1992, running China National’s branch in Jiangxi province. At a January meeting of cigarette brand managers and tobacco regulators, Ling announced his projections for the industry’s contribution to the government: an increase of 8 percent in 2014. But, he said, “strive for 10 percent.” He’s a nonsmoker himself.
 
 
China National was founded in 1982 to counter a black market explosion in cigarette production; there were about 400 factories in China at the time, three times more than central planners had approved. Its first headquarters was a one-story, red-brick guest house in Beijing. The building, owned by the air force, sat next to a pile of heating coal. Its two dozen employees shared desks.


Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Uber Won't Get Out of Its India Mess Any Time Soon (BusinessWeek)


Students protesting the alleged assault by an Uber taxi driver in New Delhi
Students protesting the alleged assault by an Uber taxi driver in New Delhi
Less than a week ago, Uber Technologies Chief Executive Officer Travis Kalanick crowed about the company’s growth potential in Asia. Uber’s latest $1.2 billion financing round, Kalanick’s wrote on his blog, “will allow Uber to make substantial investments, particularly in the Asia Pacific region.” The same day, Uber announced its launch in Vietnam and celebrated with a lavish party at the Hanoi Opera House, featuring a 16-person orchestra.
The future of Uber’s biggest business in Asia has become questionable, at best. After an Uber driver in India was arrested for rape, the New Delhi government shut down Uber in the Indian capital, and protesters took to the streets of the city to denounce the company. The government has since gone a step farther, adding that Uber is not only unwelcome, it will be “blacklisted” in the future.
Police continued to question Uber executives on Tuesday, according to a report from news agency Press Trust of India, which reported a police official as saying the investigation has uncovered “gross violations on part of the company in terms of violation of the Motor Vehicle Act and others.” The central government is planning to ask other states to ban Uber. Citing New Delhi police official Brijendra Kumar Yadav, the Associated Press reported that Uber drivers don’t have police-issuedbackground-check badges.
With its Indian business at risk, the company probably didn’t help itself with a statement suggesting that the government, not Uber, bears responsibility because of lax regulation. “We will work with the government to establish clear background checks,” Kalanick wrote in a blog post. Those background checks, he added, are “currently absent in their commercial transportation licensing programs.”
The rape allegation against the Uber driver could lead to a broader crackdown on Uber’s Indian imitators as well. One of the most vulnerable is Ola Cabs, which runs an Uber-like service with more than 33,000 vehicles operating in 26 cities across the country. Ola recently received a $210 million investment from SoftBank (9984:JP), the Japanese company that is the largest shareholder in Chinese e-commerce giantAlibaba (BABA).
The crackdown on Uber will have an impact on Ola. The Delhi government said it would stop other Web-based service providers from operating until they obtain the required permits, the BBC, DPA and other media reported. Given the outcry against Uber, coming on the second anniversary of a gang rape of a 23-year-old medical student that horrified the country, the approval process may take a long time.
The outrage after the 2012 attack helped lead to the downfall of the Congress Party-led coalition government in elections this year. Members of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party aren’t likely to make the same mistake. In a country where foreign investment in Internet companies is already controversial—see the dispute about Amazon (AMZN) and other online marketplaces—politicians can show they’re committed to women’s safety by cracking down on companies that are backed by foreigners.
Einhorn is Asia regional editor in Bloomberg Businessweek’s Hong Kong bureau. Follow him on Twitter @BruceEinhorn.



Friday, December 5, 2014

The open-source software: Stephen Hawking says changed his life

By  December 2, 2014,

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The famous physicist talks about how he spent three years working with Intel to devise new software that makes it simpler for him to communicate with the world. 

Professor Stephen Hawking suffers from a neurological disease that has left him almost entirely paralysed.
For the past 20 years the world-renowned physicist has relied on a computer to communicate with the world - controlling the machine using a muscle in his cheek. His limited movement meant everyday tasks were a painstaking process and even talking via his speech synthesiser took longer than one minute per word.
Worse, Hawking found he was becoming fatigued, that his cheek muscle could only control the computer for so long each day, limiting his ability to work and speak to his friends and family.
Hawking needed a more efficient way to control his computer and turned to Intel founder Gordon Moore for help. Moore set up a group within Intel Labs to help Hawking, and over the next three years that group worked with Hawking to develop a new user interface and predictive text system. After years of tweaking the system to suit Hawking's needs, the team devised software capable of doubling his rate of speech and that let Hawking control everyday software such as web browsers ten times faster than before.
"My old system is more than 20 years old and I was finding it very difficult to communicate effectively and do the things I love to do," he said at an event to unveil the Assistive Context Aware Toolkit (ACAT) system in London today.
"With the improvements made I can now write much faster and it means I can continue to give lecture, write papers and books, and speak with family and friends more easily."
Much of that software that drives Hawking's new system will be released to the world under an open source licence in January next year, allowing other disabled people to benefit from and build on top of the system.

Letting Professor Hawking do more

The finished system was the product of hours of observation of Professor Hawking's life at work and at home, and constant feedback from Hawking on what he did and didn't like.
Intel quickly realised that Hawking didn't want a shiny new interface - he wanted the system he had spent 20 years learning how to use, he just wanted it to be easier.
"We realised he wasn't looking for a new and radical interface. He wanted something that looked and felt like his current interface but much more effective and faster to operate," said Lama Nachman, principal engineer with Intel.
The key behind the improvements that ACAT makes possible is letting Hawking achieve more each day, said Pete Denman, user experience and interaction designer with Intel Labs. While they couldn't prevent Hawking's cheek muscle from getting fatigued, they could reduce how often he needed to use that muscle to control his computer.
"If we reduce the numbers of steps to get to that point that's more work he can do," he said.
The ACAT system can be split into three parts. The input from the infrared sensor that sits on Hawking's glasses and detects movement of his cheek muscles when Hawking wants to select an item on screen. The interface that selects letters to form words and lets Hawking speak, as well as interacting with web browsers and other software. The software that predicts what Hawking is typing as he selects the letters, similar to autocomplete on modern smartphones.
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Hawking using his new communication system
 Image: A.Pattenden
Being able to compose text is vital for Hawking, both to speak via his synthesiser and also to write his lectures and books. Hawking's system pieces together words one character at a time, selecting each letter of the alphabet in turn and waiting for Hawking to select the one he wants.
Hawking's priority was reducing the number of characters he had to select to form each word. To achieve this Intel worked with SwiftKey, the British company whose technology underpins predictive text keyboards on smartphones.
By analysing a corpus of Hawking's past work, and the text he inputs each day, SwiftKey devised a probabilistic model of how Hawking uses language. The model is able to more accurately predict which word he is typing so that he only has to type between 15 and 20 percent of the characters - roughly doubling Hawking's rate of speech.

Making it easier to use Windows

Intel also demonstrated how cumbersome it could be for Hawking to use a Windows PC. To click and open a file in the Windows operating system, the computer would step vertically down the screen line by line, until Hawking indicated it was vertically aligned with the position of the file in the window. The system would then repeat the process, stepping horizontally across the screen until the pointer was over the file, allowing Hawking to click and open it. The whole process - typically something that takes seconds - would usually take upwards of three minutes.
To simplify the process Intel came up with a file manager that could step through each file in a folder - allowing Hawking to access documents and other files far more rapidly. They also devised application-specific menus whose options change depending on the software Hawking is using, which made moving back and forward within web browsers and other common tasks far simpler.
One thing that will stay the same is Hawking's voice. The synthesiser he's been using for years may be more robotic than modern alternatives but Hawking says he will not swap it, insisting that it's his trademark.

Helping others to communicate

Hawking has a motor neuron disease (MND) related to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a condition that has progressed over the years.
He is not alone in the affliction, quadriplegia and MND affect more than three million people worldwide. MND impacts voluntary muscle activities, like speaking, walking, swallowing and general movement of the body. Progressive in nature, it causes increasing disability and eventually death.
By open sourcing ACAT, Intel hopes developers will build on the software to help other MND sufferers, as well as anyone who needs to control a computer using non-standard inputs such as blinks or eyebrow movements. The toolkit will be available under an open-source licence from January next year, with the SwiftKey prediction engine replaced by an open-source alternative.
Just as the ACAT has made Hawking's life easier, so he hopes it will allow other disabled people to achieve more each day.
"As technology has got smarter it has opened up possibilities I didn't even predict. The technology that is now being developed to support the disabled is leading the way in breaking down the communication barriers which once stood in the way," he said.
"This new system is life changing for me and I hope it will serve me well for the next 20 years."

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

The American Oil Boom Won't Last Long at $65 Per Barrel (BusinessWeek)