Monday, July 20, 2015

CEO Nadella talks Microsoft's mobile ambitions, Windows 10 strategy, HoloLens and more

Microsoft CEO talks about his thinking around product differentiation and being ahead of the curve in this Q&A with Microsoft watcher Mary Jo Foley.
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Minutes after he left the Worldwide Partner Conference stage after delivering a keynote for 14,000-plus resellers, integrators and other Microsoft partners on July 13, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella sat down with me in the backstage green room for a 30-minute interview.

His appearance at the annual partner show followed by just a few days the latest of his "hard choices" kicking off Microsoft's fiscal 2016. Last week, Nadella announced Microsoft would be cutting 7,800 employees, most of which are in the hardware and devices unit.

Despite the fact that he committed to continuing to make up to two new Lumia handsets in the value, flagship and business segments each year, moving forward, many company watchers considered last week's moves as signifying Microsoft's abandonment of Windows Phone and concession of the mobile market to its competitors.

I asked Nadella about his plans for continuing to compete in the phone/mobile markets; his expectations for Microsoft's HoloLens augmented-reality technology; and his partnership plans, in particular with regards to Microsoft's long-time nemesis, Google.

I've edited this transcript for clarity and length.

MJF: You just got off the stage. What do you hope partners take away from your keynote this morning?

SATYA NADELLA: I really mean this when I say I want us to be a very mission-driven company in the choices we make and the things that we do and how we do it, because the lesson learned for me has been to not conflate or mistake a particular goal with a particular technology and your mission.

When I joined the company in '92 it was about the PC in every home and on every desk. Guess what: We achieved that. And a company has to outlast any given technology paradigm and any ambitious goal. And so for me this going back to what is it that drove Bill (Gates) to build even the BASIC compiler or the interpreter to what we did in terms of inventing productivity or democratizing client-server computing.

That's where I come back to this notion of empowerment. When I even think about the three broad ecosystems out there in the world, we are the only ones who both (consumer and business). Because of what we do in our economic model, we are fundamentally focused on saying it's about our customer's product. IT can be a student writing a term paper or a big enterprise driving their own differentiation of productivity. Both of them are the things that we as an ecosystem care about. And that's what grounds me on what choices we make, what markets we participate in, how we do it.

In this world we have these three big ambitions (reinvention of productivity and business processes; building the intelligent cloud; more personal computing). Of course they're grounded in real product today, But it's also beyond what we're delivering today, beyond the brand names of today. Where are we going? That's where the morning's keynotes were all about and that's what I'm focused on.

MJF: That's a great jumping-off point to one of the things I want to talk about. After last week a lot of people I'm talking to -- partners and customers -- are really worried about your prospects in mobile. You just said not to conflate the technology with what you're going to do next. So, does Microsoft cutting back on the number of Windows Phones you make mean you are getting out of the mobile market?

NADELLA: Not at all. Quite frankly I think it's sort of about the lens through which you view what's happening. I view the mobile opportunity, even today in its broadest sense, and in the future, as being richer.

First, I want to be able to be present on every mobile endpoint. That's a very explicit core goal. It's not (just) the notion of having our application endpoints, Skype, Outlook, Wunderlist, Sunrise, on every one of the two billion devices. We want to have Microsoft experiences, because to me that's a platform play. It's not like, oh, they're just application endpoints. Guess what is behind those applications? It's One Cloud. It's Office 365, either for the consumer or for the enterprise. There's MSA (Microsoft Account) in there.

So to me it's very important to think of our operating system more broadly than some old definition of an operating system. So we want to be in every device, not only have our application endpoints on every device. I want the identity management. It's not MSA alone, it's Azure Active Directory. It is managing those devices, securing those devices in terms of data protection. These are all core capabilities that we have.

Then on top of that, to me, one of the great structural pieces is we don't have with Windows is this problem of Mac OS/iOS. I'm not in some quest to say let me try and replicate Mac OS and iOS or iOS and Mac OS. We don't have the Chrome versus Android. We are Windows, from Raspberry Pi to HoloLens. And when you saw the demo of HoloLens today, to me it's part of my mobility strategy. When the person was using Autodesk and Maya on the desktop and just moved to a 3D model and interacted, they weren't using their phone.

If anything, one big mistake we made in our past was to think of the PC as the hub for everything for all time to come. And today, of course, the high volume device is the six-inch phone. I acknowledge that. But to think that that's what the future is for all time to come would be to make the same mistake we made in the past without even having the share position of the past. So that would be madness.

Therefore, we have to be on the hunt for what's the next bend in the curve. That's what, quite frankly, anyone has to do to be relevant in the future. In our case, we are doing that. We're doing that with our innovation in Windows. We're doing that with features like Continuum. Even the phone, I just don't want to build another phone, a copycat phone operating system, even.

So when I think about our Windows Phone, I want it to stand for something like Continuum. When I say, wow, that's an interesting approach where you can have a phone and that same phone, because of our universal platform with Continuum, and can, in fact, be a desktop. That is not something any other phone operating system or device can do. And that's what I want our devices and device innovation to stand for.

Last week's announcement was not about any change to our vision and strategy, but for sure it was a change to our operating approach. The way we're going to go about it. I'm not going to launch a phone a day. I'm going to focus on a few phones that actually grab share that, in fact, showcase our uniqueness. When you have three percent share of that (phone market), but you also have a billion desktops, you have Xbox, you have innovation in HoloLens; you have Band. It's a graph. It's not any one node. It is the entirety of the device family. And I want to be able to think about our strategy, our innovation, and progress as one.

If anything, the thing that I'm signaling most to the investors, to the employees is let's stop this thing about trying to atomically dissect any one. They will all have a temporal current position and a future ambition. But it is one thing that we need to move on.

MJF: It sounds like you're saying that right now when people talk about "Windows mobile," (lowercase m), they only think it's the phone operating system. But you are saying it's much more than that. You're saying Windows mobile, going forward, is bigger?

NADELLA: That's why whenever I talk about Windows 10, I talk about mobility broadly across all of those devices. For sure there is a form factor today which is the below six or seven inches, which is powered by a very specific operating system instance of Windows 10, which is Windows Mobile. But what do you call that (device) when you use Continuum and then you're using applications on a big screen with a mouse and keyboard? It's Windows 10.

That's why I like to think about Windows 10 as not being bound to any one form factor. What is Alex (Kipman) doing with a HoloLens? It was a Windows 10 UAP (Universal App Platform). I think is what we need to do a better job of communicating.

In my case I have a Band. I have my phone. I have my Surface. I have my Surface Hub and I'll have a HoloLens. And that to me is all Windows 10. And I'll seamlessly move between all of these. I want the notifications to flow between all of these. I want my data and apps to flow between all of these things.

MJF: I saw (COO) Kevin Turner's mail about the moves you made last week, and he made a Surface analogy. He said now what we're doing with phone is more like what you're doing with Surface. Your phones are going to be more of like showcase devices for what Windows mobile can look like on a phone.

NADELLA: Correct. There's a little bit of a distinction because, in some sense, in the world of PCs, we are trying to create new categories like Surface did. Now every OEM has a two-in-one, which I celebrate, which is great. Surface Hub -- I'm sure next year there will be many OEMs with Surface Hub like devices. We will do HoloLens, and then, since the holographic computing platform is right there in Windows, there will be people who will build holographic computers beyond HoloLens. So I want all of that to happen.

If no OEM stands up to build Windows devices we'll build them. There will be Lumia devices. So I'm not afraid of saying, okay, it's all about the OEMs, or it's all about the ecosystem. It's about Windows. It is about the overall health of Windows and being grounded in any given day's reality, but having ambition of where the market is going versus being bound by current definitions.

MJF: Does that Surface analogy break down, though? Microsoft built Surface but there were still many other OEMs building successful Windows devices. But with Windows Phones phones, that's not the case, right?

NADELLA: We will do everything we have to do to make sure we're making progress on phones. We have them. Even today Terry (Myerson, the head of Windows and Devices) reinforced, again, yes, we will have premium Lumias coming this year.

If there are a lot of OEMs, we'll have one strategy. If there are no OEMs, we'll have one strategy. We are committed to having the phones in these three segments. And I think the operational details will become clear to people as they see it. I want people to evaluate us on the phones that we produce, but not the inside baseball -- what are we doing to produce -- because that should not be relevant to our broad consumers. It may be relevant to people like you who are critiquing us. That's okay. But what matters to me is what customers care.

MJF: I'm curious if you see last week's decisions around Windows Phone affecting your universal app strategy. Some believe that if Microsoft makes fewer Lumias -- and Microsoft is making more than 95 percent of all the Windows Phones in the market -- doesn't that kill, or at least weaken, your universal apps play, which is key to Windows 10? Why as a developer do I now want to build an app that runs on Windows Phone if there's going to be even fewer Windows Phones?

NADELLA: Universal Windows apps are going to be written because you want to have those apps used on the desktop. The reason why anybody would want to write universal apps is not because of our three percent share in phones. It's because a billion consumers are going to have a Start Menu, which is going to have your app. You start the journey there and take them to multiple places. Their app can go to the phone. They can go to HoloLens. They can go to Xbox. You talk to somebody like Airbnb. It might be more attractive, given our three percent share on phone, for them to actually build something for the desktop and for the Xbox.

And by the way, when we hook them on that, we have a phone app. This strategy is path dependent, which is a term I use that means where you start is not where you end up. And therein lies a lot of the nuance. The fundamental truth for developers is they will build if there are users. And in our case the truth is we have users on desktop.

Why then make all these changes to the Start Menu with Windows 10? It's not because I just want to bring back the old. It's because that's the best way to improve the liquidity our store. Windows 8 was great except that nobody discovered the store. In Windows 10, the store is right there and done in a tasteful way.

I want that to translate into success for our developers. That's what's going to get them to write to the phone. If anything, the free upgrade for Windows 10 is meant to improve our phone position. That is the reason why I made that decision. If somebody wants to know whether I'm committed to Windows Phone, they should think about what I just did with the free upgrade to Windows, rather than -- hey, I making four more phone models of value smart phones.

MJF: How does making Windows 10 free show that you're committed to Windows Phone? I'm not quite following that.

NADELLA: Because all of this comes down to how are you going to get developers to come to Windows. If you come to Windows, you are going to be on the phone, too. Even if you want to come to Windows because of HoloLens, you want to come to it because of Xbox, you want to come to the desktop, all those get you to the phone. It's not about let's do head-on competition. That will never work. You have to have a differentiated point of view.

MJF: I have a HoloLens question. I've heard that when you first saw HoloLens -- back when it was Project Fortaleza -- you said we need to expand this beyond just gaming. Where do you think the initial demand for HoloLens is going to be? Is it going to be more in gaming, or is it going to be more in business and research?

NADELLA: For sure in the first version, it's going to be more about developers and enterprise scenarios

I did buy Minecraft to create a new genre of gaming for mixed reality. We bought Minecraft for many reasons: because it's the number one PC app; it's the number one console app; it's the number one paid mobile app on iOS and Android. I wanted a hit game even for the new medium of mixed reality. And we will have that. Gaming will always be a scenario and there will be other entertainment broadly. But, with the V.1 of HoloLens, I want us to push a lot more of the enterprise usage.

In general Microsoft's approach will be always this dual-use focus, or this multi-focus. What we can uniquely do is bridge consumer to enterprise. That's in our DNA. That's why it's even in our mission statement of empowering people and organizations. I want every technology of ours to seek that out. In the HoloLens case, when I look at the interest, it's amazing how many are in hospitals, healthcare, retail. That's where I'm seeing the interest and we'll definitely go after it.

MJF: A question on partnerships. Since you've been the CEO, it feels like Microsoft is very different in how it's approaching partnerships. If you look at how (former CEO Steve) Ballmer dealt with companies like Salesforce and Adobe, and how you're dealing with them, it's very different. What is the difference in your philosophy here?

NADELLA: Microsoft, even during Steve's time and Bill's time, was a platform company. Rhetoric aside, and stylistic approaches aside, at the core I'm just doing what we have always done well. How many multi-billion-dollar software companies got built on top of Windows? Google wouldn't exist if they couldn't have built a browser for Windows, they couldn't have put toolbars on IE. We were the most open ecosystem on the planet ever.

We were always a platform company. I want us to be able to live that in our approach. That means Salesforce should extend Office, they should integrate, they should use Azure. Same thing with Dropbox, Box, Adobe. They should build great applications. It makes all the sense in the world for us to think about the construct fundamentally as non-zero sum. We may compete with many of these folks in some categories, but at the core we are a platform vendor. In fact, we have three platforms I like to talk about: Windows, Azure and Office. I like to think all three of these will be open for others to extend and, of course, we will construct them together.

MJF: In that vein and you're thinking about partnerships, do you think there's any hope you're going to have a partnership with Google where they build apps for Windows 10?

NADELLA: I would love to. It's for them to decide. I would love for them to have YouTube on Windows Phones. I would love for them to do their best work like they have with Chrome on Windows.

MJF: Is Microsoft actively talking with them about these things?

NADELLA: We'll talk to every developer. Some of these relationships with large players require a level of maturity, which I'm sure we will achieve with all players. I'm hopeful that there are more applications. After all, we now have our apps on Android, and that's good. And then we just hope that it's reciprocated and our users mutually benefit.

MJF: You just announced here at the show a new service and app called GigJam that seemingly creates a whole new application category. It crosses a lot of boundaries. I've heard you talk about Microsoft making fewer, bigger bets. So how does something like GigJam fit in here? Aren't you going off in a whole other non-established category?

NADELLA: It is about the core. It's one category. It's about productivity and business process. Think of it as a new module of Office 365. It's not bound to today's definitions of categories. It's not just a creation tool. It's not just a communications tool. It's not just a development tool. It's all of that. And it spans all devices. It's not bound to one device.

The notion is to be able to generate applications on the fly to adjust to the work that you're doing versus sending you off to five different apps, five different devices, and five different communications sessions. We brought all of that. That's a very revolutionary concept. If you think about the first time you saw Outlook, up to that point I had a contact management app, I had e-mail, and I had a calendar. Outlook took those three categories, came up with a new scaffolding, and since then, nobody has thought about these three things as separate on the desktop. So it's fewer, but big bets with growing addressable markets, not looking back.

MJF: We've heard stories about your decision that the Surface Mini -- that small, ARM-based tablet that nearly came to market last year -- was not differentiated enough, so you axed it. How do you decide what's differentiated enough when it comes to new devices?

NADELLA: What I want us to stand for is not have envy for somebody else's success. I want us to stand for what is it that we've done that customers actually care about. Why is this important for us to take to market? I actually don't even care as much about initial grand success in terms of volume or share. Does it meet a specific scenario that we have done very well for some set of plans? It's a shorthand for doing customer scenarios that are differentiated.

I want to be more customer-led. When we say customer-led, that doesn't mean just listen to customers about X and then do the same feature. It's about being able to anticipate what we can do to really differentiate their own lives. GigJam wouldn't have come from the thinking of let's look out there and see who is doing something.

That is how we created Microsoft. Nobody had done Visual Basic. Nobody had done Access. Nobody had done Outlook. We created categories or democratized categories. We either took something very complex and made it simple so that everyone in the world could adopt it, or created something where it didn't already exist -- where nobody came to us and said, this is what we want. Once we did it, everybody wanted it. That's the bar for devices and our software and services.

MJF: So back to phone, then. You've said one of the three categories of phones you want to make are "business phones." What's the differentiator for you there?

NADELLA: Businesses are actually the place where we're growing fastest among all our phone ones. Think about it. Some of the real (attraction) of Windows devices is management and security. The fact that your latest soccer app is not available, or some social networking app is not available is not much of an issue (in business scenarios). What matters to you is identity management, security, protection.

The other thing that matters is rapid application development. In our case, we take a Lumia device, you power up Azure App Services, and out come Universal Apps that automate workflows. I think that's unbeatable in terms of a value proposition. That's why we have something unique to contribute.

Those three segments, I picked them because we have something unique to contribute. For people who love Windows, we'll have a flagship device. It's not just a flagship device, but it also supports things like Continuum. For business customers, it's about custom apps they want to deploy onto those endpoints with management and security. For the value smart phone segment, I want to focus on where we can put Office and our communications and Skype, so it's more like a Skype and Office phone for the first time smart phone buyer. Those are places where I feel like, yes, that's a kind of uniqueness. Let's grow from there.

You've got to remember even the Apple regeneration started with colorful iMacs. So let us first get the colorful iMacs. I think with what we're doing with Lumia, we're at that stage. I want to do good devices that people like, and then we will go on to doing the next thing and the next thing.

MJF: Are you using a Windows Phone yourself?

NADELLA: Absolutely I do.

ZDNET: I heard you might use Talkman (one of the next expected premium Windows Phones) pretty soon.

NADELLA: I don't think I said that.

MJF: Not publicly, at least :)

NADELLA: This is the 830. Of course I'm using a Windows Phone, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to make sure that everyone I see with an iPhone here , I'm going to get them to download one of our apps. And that's our goal.

We had a CEO conference recently and I did a demo of all the things that we have on the iPhone so that they could all walk out with Wunderlist, and OneNote, and Outlook. By the way, Outlook client on the iPhone is the best Gmail client and the Exchange client on iOS. Now that to me also signals our mobility strategy.

MJF: So bottom line -- your mobility strategy is not just about phones.

NADELLA: It's about phones. It is about our apps on other end points. It is about EMS (Enterprise Mobility Suite). It is about new categories like HoloLens. In the full arc of time, that's what people really value. It's not about one mobile device that rules them all. That would be like saying there's one PC that's going to rule all as a hub.

Monday, July 13, 2015

Taking On Donald Trump May Be a Key Step in Getting to the Oval Office (BusinessWeek)

A candidate looks presidential by showing strength—so attacking the campaign’s 800-pound gorilla makes sense. But there are definitely risks.
Image result for Donald Trump

No matter how glittering the political resume, getting elected U.S. president remains one of the great challenges on the planet. As Bill Clinton explains it, presidential candidates must not only make voters see them as a plausible president, but as an actual president, leaping resolutely and inexorably over the hurdles of the election process until it is time to stroll the stage to the tune of “hail to the chief.”

Another favorite Clinton adage is that candidates have a better chance to win over voters by being strong and wrong than by being right and weak. What links the two is the concept of strength. Strength defines, as much as anything else, the terms of winning the American presidential contest, and as such it’s an integral part of the tactical arsenal. Veteran Republican strategist Alex Castellanos says that candidates must constantly be on the lookout for opportunities to show “moments of strength,” which effectively allow the public to imagine a White House aspirant truly occupying the Oval Office, and managing the myriad burdens thereof.

Indeed, strength might be the defining factor in the 2016 presidential cycle so far. Scott Walker, who surged early in 2015 and has maintained a sturdy standing in an increasingly crowded field, has built his entire narrative around the theme of staunchly standing up to unions and other liberal interests in Wisconsin, including battling for election, recall survival, and re-election.

Anything that he says is instantly national news, which, for his rivals, makes attacking him an extraordinarily risky proposition.

Dr. Ben Carson’s biography has innumerable compelling elements, but for many voters his identity as both an outspoken conservative and African-American (along with his high-profile confrontation with President Obama over health care) show implicit and impressive strength. 

The low-key Carson (who has not been a conspicuous daily presence on the campaign trail, to say the least), continues to maintain support from about 10 percent of the Republican electorate nationally.

Ted Cruz and Rand Paul each make relentless plays to show strength by challenging not just Democrats, but GOP leaders as well. Both senators owe some of their national success to the muscular political risks they have taken in defying the status quo.

Carly Fiorina has received some of her most favorable press coverage and reactions from voters when she has used aggressive rhetoric to take on Hillary Clinton and when she has talked about how the power of her personal faith has seen her through her life's hardest moments, including the death of her daughter from drug abuse. 

Rick Perry has received a slew of favorable notices, including a stirring and laudatory editorial in the Wall Street Journal, for a speech he gave last week in Washington in which he called out his party for failing to assiduously seek support from African-American voters and lead the way for inclusion and understanding. Perry’s move was bold, aggressive, mostly unexpected – and thus made him the campaign’s strongman of the day.
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders’ recent colossal success has been driven by an accumulating series of self-propelling moments of might: supplying straight talk on the stump, standing up to special interests, displaying clarity and confidence—all of which has led to big crowds, increased media attention, higher poll numbers, more exposure, and still bigger crowds. Nothing looks stronger than an underdog having sustained success against a frontrunner.

Which brings us to Donald Trump. Much (but, paradoxically, not enough) is made of the phenomenon by which Trump has been able to attract oodles of news coverage, over the course of decades, in the realms of business, entertainment and politics. In past election years, when he seemed to be flirting with a presidential bid, his every interview drew more spin-off coverage than many White House aspirants draw in a month, or, in some cases, their entire campaigns.

Now that Trump is an official candidate, his capacity to drive the news cycle is even greater. Stipulated that Trump is very far from a perfect person. But when much of the commentariat focuses on his flaws, they often neglect to address his genuine gifts as a 21st century politician. Watch Trump spend time with voters and you can’t miss that they respond not just to his fame, but to his flashy confidence, his bullish desire to stand up to anybody who crosses him or crosses the US of A. Haters will hate, mockers will mock, but his brash declarations that he and everything he touches are the Best is—for his supporters, which a CNN poll last week put at 12 percent of the Republican electorate—the embodiments of success through strength.

To the other candidates, therefore, Trump represents a target of opportunity‑because there’s no better way to show strength than by attacking a potent rival. And with Trump, of course, there’s much to attack. Politically, he’s given financial support to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, flirted with single-payer health care, supported tax increases, embraced the birther movement. But that’s not even half of it. More businessperson than politician, more celebrity than authority, more bluster than substance, more ego-trip than leadership—or so goes the standard (and semi-blind) dismissal of his candidacy. Take down the pompadoured giant with the glass jaw and look like the powerful king of the world.

But it’s not so simple. When he was a businessman and pure tabloid fodder, hitting Trump condemned you to an onslaught of sticks and stones--annoying and perhaps distracting but generally not a threat to one’s professional advancement. But as a presidential candidate, he has an even bigger megaphone. Anything that he says is instantly national news, which, for his rivals, makes attacking him an extraordinarily risky proposition.

No major candidate has yet shown him or herself willing to face a mud wrestling match with one of the world’s great mud wrestlers (a spectacle that would drown out not just a substantive message, but pretty much every other political story imaginable), nor risk incurring a potential multimillion dollar negative TV ad campaign fueled by Trump’s billions or his wrath on the debate stage. And once he’s brushed off the blow, he’ll head straight to Twitter and to his welcoming friends on FOX News and inform an audience that has enjoyed him for years, just what a loser you are.

Until Trump implied in his announcement speech a few weeks ago that a significant number of illegal Mexican immigrants are criminals sent to the United States by their native government, his Republican rivals did their best to ignore him, basically offering up mild, gracious pleasantries about his entry into the race, sidestepping media invitations to belittle Trump’s candidacy as a lark that undermined the overall seriousness of the field.

Even after Trump’s immigration comments blew up as a major controversy (even as his poll numbers have ticked up in the aftermath), most of his Republican rivals have stayed relatively quiet. Three candidates – Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Rick Perry – took him on aggressively, and derided his remarks (things got personal for Bush, whose wife Columba is from Mexico), but without incorporating a wider repudiation of Trump and his candidacy. 

Even Chris Christie, no stranger to seizing moments for self-aggrandizing shows of strength, has chosen to praise his friend Donald, despite rejecting his immigration stance. (Former New York Governor George Pataki has been uncompromisingly outspoken in criticizing Trump’s comments, but his low-visibility campaign means you probably don’t even know that this happened.) Trump has retaliated against all his critics with potshots, demonstrating his skill at playing the “strong” card and never letting  chance pass to grab the upper hand—or at least the louder mic.

For the Republican Party, the problem of what to do about Trump is not a new conundrum. Four years ago, Mitt Romney took great care to ensure that The Donald was inside the tent rather than lobbing missiles from the outside. Romney allowed his campaign to sign off on an elaborately staged endorsement event, held at Trump’s opulent Las Vegas hotel, highlighting Mitt and Ann Romney’s respect for the mogul.

But now that he’s a candidate, Trump is much harder to placate, and many believe, with his immigration position and the general circus environment he carries with him, that he’s causing the party real damage. Democrats have been gleeful about his rise, and the Clinton campaign and her party have stepped up their efforts to yoke the whole GOP field to Trump on immigration, to advance their own standing with Hispanics and put Trump’s rivals on the spot.

Some restive and concerned Republican donors and some commentators (including Charles Krauthammer and Pete Wehner) are calling for the current crop of candidates, and the GOP more generally, to stand up to Trump, even making noise about barring him from the formal debates next month, despite the fact that Trump’s current poll standing would qualify him for entry. Concern has risen high enough that the chairman of the Republican National Committee, Reince Priebus, called Trump on Wednesday, urging him to tone down his rhetoric on immigration.

These last few weeks, it has been truly remarkable that in a field of senators, governors, and seasoned presidential contenders, Trump has generated a big portion of the 2016 conversation, dominating social media, spicing up roundtable discussions, and crowding out other political messaging by both Democrats and Republicans.

Which makes Trump a bigger target than ever. Possibly, the calculus of attacking him is changing. The risks are huge for anyone who makes a frontal assault, a full repudiation that goes beyond just challenging Trump on his immigration comments, a truly epic mud war. But a candidate who undertook it might be seen as both a party savior and pillar of strength, definitely prepared to be an Oval Office occupant. Even Bill Clinton might be impressed. Will any of them seize the moment?


Friday, July 10, 2015

Apple and Google Tempted by Cars That Can Buy Morning Coffee (BusinessWeek)

Self-driving cars will do so much more than drive
Cars in the next few years will be able to find the fastest route for the morning commute as well as order coffee, pay for it and guide the driver to pick it up.
This transformation of the auto into a full-service mobile device adds up to a potential goldmine. Revenue from the data streams and connectivity components could become a 180 billion-euro ($200 billion) market by 2020, McKinsey & Co. estimates. That’s a rich target for Apple Inc. and Google Inc., and automakers are fighting for a claim as well.
Instead of just producing transport hardware, “we have to get into the service industry in a larger way,” Tony Douglas, BMW AG’s mobility services unit, said to a roomful of executives at a recent conference in Munich.
CHART: Spending to Stay Ahead
“The transportation industry is ripe for disruption. Either we kind of drive that disruption and gain from the new business models that will emerge, or we let someone else do it.”

BMW, Volkswagen AG’s Audi and Daimler AG’s Mercedes-Benz compete head-to-head on everything from new models to passenger comforts. But the threat of an Apple car has helped prod them to make a joint bid to acquire Nokia Oyj’s HERE digital map business, which may fetch as much as $4 billion, people familiar with the matter have said.

Fine-grained location data is considered crucial to set up new services – like a coffee-buying car – and eventually guide automated vehicles. Owning HERE would ensure the German automakers have an alternative to Google. Relying on the search company’s maps could mean giving up key customer information.

10,000 E-Mails

“We want to produce good, safe, beautiful cars, and to that end, we need data,” Christine Hohmann-Dennhardt, the Daimler executive in charge of legal issues, said at a June press event in Munich.

 The German automakers’ interest in HERE is part of preparations for a digital-car age. By 2020, about 90 percent of new vehicles in western Europe will be connected, compared with roughly one-third next year, according to Hitachi Ltd. Autos that link to the Internet as well as people’s smartphones generate data equivalent to 10,000 e-mails every hour. 

Surging Linkage
Industry connectivity revenue estimate
Coupled with predictive software and mobile-payment systems, the information on people’s whereabouts and tendencies can be a valuable resource.

If a driver gets hungry and McDonald’s Corp. can track that and respond, “people would be directed to McDonald’s instead of another fast-food restaurant,” said Peter Fuss, a partner at consulting company EY’s German unit. The systems to tap these capabilities could start emerging in the next two to three years, he said.

On-Road Internet

Car data could also be crucial for making roads safer. If wheels spin on an icy patch, the vehicle could automatically relay that information to others on that stretch.

Ultimately, the goal is to enable people to take their hands off the wheel as the car drives itself. McKinsey estimates automated vehicles could free up as much as 50 minutes a day for users globally. This could generate digital-media revenue of 5 billion euros a year for every minute drivers spend with their eyes on the Internet instead of the road, the consulting company said in a June study.

If they can avoid the fate of being marginalized by Apple and Google, automakers could reap about $400 a car in extra revenue and savings on development spending, according to Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. In any case, the risk of not offering digital services is even greater.

“Customers won’t be that keen on having big motors anymore,” said EY’s Fuss. “They’ll be more interested in how they can use their time while they’re in the car.”


Thursday, July 9, 2015

10 cool virtual reality patents from the past 25 years

Optical system for virtual reality helmet

The patent for this virtual reality helmet was filed in 1993. The patent summary describes an improved field of view and image quality (compared to what, it doesn't say), adjustable lenses, and a second set of lenses.

Data-suit for real-time computer animation and virtual reality applications

This patent, filed in 1997, described in its abstract plans for a data suit for the purpose of real-time computer animation of cartoon and virtual-reality characters.
Visual field perimetry using virtual reality glasses

These patent filers back in 1998 were thinking about how virtual reality glasses could be used to map a patient's field of vision and potentially diagnose vision problems

Virtual reality generator for use with financial information

This patent had less to do with hardware and focused on a system that would bring "financial information" into a "virtual reality generator" and subsequently display it in a virtual reality environment. Though it was filed in 1994, the concept has popped up again, fairly recently.
Virtual reality system for treating patients with anxiety disorders

Doctors have been using virtual reality for exposure therapy for quite a few years now — this patent is intended for just that. A patient could wear a headset and use the system to simulate situations that would otherwise be triggers for anxiety, like flying, but with far more control than in the real world.
Virtual reality headset

For all the patents that never quite panned out, check out this one — it's the patent for the Oculus Rift, filed in part by Oculus founder Palmer Luckey and CEO Brendan Iribe.
Virtual reality GTAW and pipe welding simulator and setup

One potential use for virtual reality is in skills training. This 2013 patent is for a VR welding simulator, which would include the welding mask as the headset.
Virtual reality glove system with fabric conductors

Here's a 1996 patent for a data glove for use with a computer system or virtual reality system.

Virtual reality interactivity system and method

Check out this intense getup for a VR interactivity system. Filed in 2004, the patent description talks about creating awareness for the VR user's physical environment.

Scalable virtual world chat client-server system

In present day, multiple companies are taking a shot at social virtual reality. This patent filed in 1996 shows a virtual world — something chatroom-esque, where users could interact through avatars in real time in a "three-dimensional, computer-generated graphical space." The best thing about this patent? Penguin avatars.



Wednesday, July 8, 2015

EU Tells Tsipras the Party’s Over as Euro Exit Door Swings Open (BusinessWeek)

After five months of drama, false dawns and unpleasant surprises, Europe’s leaders are finally ready to show Alexis Tsipras the exit.

Behind the doors of the Justus Lipsius building in the heart of the political district in Brussels, the euro-region’s leaders rounded on the Greek prime minister for destabilizing the currency union before Germany’s Angela Merkel emerged to deliver an official ultimatum.

In a tense and at times emotional meeting, Tsipras’s European peers told him he’d failed to appreciate the efforts the continent’s voters and taxpayers had made to help the Greek people and blamed him for escalating tensions across the region. Six officials agreed to share their knowledge of the private talks while asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of the historical moment.

Europe’s leaders are finally ready to show Alexis Tsipras the exit

“Party time at the expense of others in Greece has come to an end,” Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said. “Europe and the euro area are surely unprepared to pay for the irresponsible behavior of the new Greek government.”

Afterward in public comments, the leaders competed to find the harshest language to describe Tsipras’s approach and its likely consequences. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said a “miracle” would be needed to keep Greece in the euro-region, while Malta’s Joseph Muscat said the 40-year-old had created an “enormous trust-gap” with his European counterparts.

“We have a Grexit scenario prepared in detail,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said, using the shorthand for expulsion from the now 19-nation currency area.

Mood Sours

That bookended a day that began with a meeting of the region’s finance ministers, and a welcome for Greece’s new man in that role, the 55-year-old economist Euclid Tsakalotos. At first Tsakalotos won the acceptance of his colleagues, who’d been riled by his predecessor Yanis Varoufakis’s hectoring style.

But the mood soured quickly.

Many of his new colleagues were irritated that Tsakalotos had failed to present concrete plans to bridge the nation’s financing gap, prompting some to question the purpose of interrupting their vacations to show up.

“I expected so much from the new minister who, yes, gave us a good presentation on the situation in Greece but still no proposals,” Belgian Finance Minister Johan Van Overtveldt said. “I only wish the Greeks realize the same urgency and seriousness of the situation as much as the rest of the Eurogroup.”

Plan B

Germany’s Wolfgang Schaeuble demanded that officials from the European Central Bank and the European Commission detail their plans to shield the rest of the bloc from the fallout from a Greek exit. A long-held taboo against discussing such plans had been cast aside, officials said.

As European leaders arrived to meet Tspiras, the rhetoric built. Muscat said the meeting would probably be a “waste of time” as the Greeks had arrived “empty-handed.”

“You can’t have one country enjoying a feast, overspending and having everyone else pay for it, including our citizens with much lower pensions and wages,” said Grybauskaite.

During the subsequent meeting, Muscat and Grybauskaite led the attacks on Tsipras, according to a European official.

Grybauskaite’s adviser didn’t respond to requests for comments. Muscat said in an interview that leaders had been angered by Tsipras’s decision to call a snap referendum when a deal seemed to be within reach last month.

“The referendum has practically antagonized public opinion across the EU,” Muscat said after the summit. “So we wanted to be tougher more than ever with him in our requests.”

That became clear as soon as leaders left the meeting rooms in Justus Lipsius and began speaking to reporters. After a briefing from ECB President Mario Draghi, the leaders gave Tsipras five days to accept the terms of their financial support or face ejection from the euro region.

“The final moment of truth is approaching quickly for Tsipras,” Wolfango Piccoli, managing director at Teneo Intelligence in London, said by e-mail.


Monday, July 6, 2015

Varoufakis Quits as Greece Enters New Showdown With Europe (BusinessWeek)

Yanis Varoufakis quit as Greek finance minister, a move intended to help speed talks with creditors after voters rejected further austerity and escalated tension over the country’s place in the euro.

Varoufakis announced the decision in a blog post early Monday, saying there was “a certain preference” among European creditors that he no longer be involved in negotiations. The motorbike-riding economist had sparred openly with counterparts including Wolfgang Schaeuble of Germany.


Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my… ‘absence’ from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance today.

His abrupt resignation followed victory in Greece’s Sunday referendum with a larger-than-forecast 61 percent of the vote for the “no” campaign he backed along with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. With euro-area governments signaling it’s up to Greece to offer proposals, Varoufakis’s absence may help lower the temperature in its efforts to avoid an exit from the euro zone and secure a new bailout from European partners.

“I consider it my duty to help Alexis Tsipras exploit, as he sees fit, the capital that the Greek people granted us through yesterday’s referendum,” said Varoufakis, 54, referring to the body of euro-area finance chiefs that led aid talks. “And I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride.”

Muted Markets

The resignation helped mute declines in the euro and European stocks. The euro pared losses after the statement and was down 0.4 percent to $1.1069 at 9:40 a.m. in London. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.4 percent to 378.02 points, compared with a drop of as much as 3.2 percent a week ago, when Greece introduced capital controls and closed banks.

Time is running out for Greece to secure a new deal to save its economy from outright collapse. Banks have been closed for a week and may run out of cash within hours unless the European Central Bank extends an emergency lifeline.

Euro-zone leaders are due to meet on Tuesday for an emergency summit on Greece a day after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande hold talks in Paris on a common position. The Frankfurt-based ECB is also due to evaluate its next moves on Monday; Tsipras’s banking decree expires at midnight, and will probably need to be extended without a quick decision from the lender.

Humanitarian Crisis

“Our immediate priority is to restore the Greek banking system,” Tsipras, 40, said in a speech after the referendum result. “I’m confident that the ECB fully realizes the humanitarian side of the crisis in our country.”

The mandate you've given me does not call for a break with Europe, but rather gives me greater negotiating strength.

The People Of Greece Vote 'No' In Referendum To Reject Debt Bailout Terms   Greeks Vote In National Referendum

The referendum asked Greeks whether they would accept the terms set by creditors in exchange for financial aid, including curbs on early retirement and sales-tax increases.European leaders are showing no immediate willingness to compromise. They firstly want to wait to see what proposals Tsipras will offer to keep Greece in the euro, according to a European government official with knowledge of crisis strategy.

The question remains whether Greece’s creditors will be willing to negotiate with a government that has rejected their conditions for staying in the 19-member currency union, after Portugal and Ireland accepted similar measures and emerged from their own bailout programs. Greece’s departure from the euro is now the most likely scenario, according to predictions from a series of banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Tsipras has “torn down the last bridges across which Europe and Greece could have moved toward a compromise,” German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said in an interview with the Tagesspiegel newspaper.

Restoring Dignity

European leaders largely characterized the plebiscite as a vote on membership in the euro itself, although Tsipras insists Greece can stay in regardless.

Tsipras and his Coalition of the Radical Left, or Syriza, swept to power in January after campaigning to end crippling budget cuts forced upon the country by creditors and promising to restore “dignity.” Optimism for a deal toward the end of last month was suddenly halted when he called the referendum on June 27, putting an end to talks.

The country is buckling under the strain of the capital controls and is at risk of undoing four decades of integration with Europe. The economy has already shrunk about 25 percent over the past six years while the jobless rate is still the highest in the euro region.

“The ‘no’ vote sets the clock ticking on the collapse of Greece’s banking sector,” Nicholas Spiro, the managing director of London advisory firm Spiro Sovereign Strategy, said in e-mailed comments.

With no clear timeline for banks to reopen, companies are concerned about how they’ll pay staff and pension payments are being rationed. Queues at cash machines in central Athens were noticeably longer than over the weekend, as Greeks waited to withdraw the daily maximum of 60 euros each currently permitted by the government.

Nonetheless, the referendum result was a source of joy for many Greeks and Syntagma Square turned into a raucous street party on Sunday as “no” supporters gathered to celebrate. Some danced to music playing from speaker phones, while others took selfies with the crowds in the background.


Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Greece Compromise Bid Faces Resistance as Trust Fades (BusinessWeek)

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras signaled he’s ready to end his standoff with creditors as the country gets a taste of financial meltdown.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Europe’s dominant leader, refused to engage until after a July 5 referendum called by Tsipras on budget cuts demanded by creditors.
It took a third day of capital controls, rationing pensions and the expiry of Greece’s bailout for the government in Athens to say it’s willing to accept his adversaries’ latest offer as a basis for compromise. The looming vote was the major stumbling block, along with disagreements over pensions, spending and taxes.

“This is not quite the climbdown it seems,” said Peter Chatwell, a strategist at Mizuho International Plc in London. “I strongly doubt Europe will accept this proposal and if Europe sticks to its guns and waits for the referendum, the greater the chance that the government fails.”

Merkel and her finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, burned by five months of brinkmanship, said there would be no immediate talks.

Merkel Refusal

“There can be no negotiations for a new credit program before the referendum,” the chancellor told lawmakers in a speech opening a parliamentary debate on Greece. The country has provided “no basis for talking about any serious measures” to break the deadlock, Schaeuble told reporters.

Talks broke down at the weekend with Tsipras taking European leaders and his own country by surprise and declaring he would hold a public vote. As the politics and posturing continued, the difference now is that Greeks are divided between defiance and desperation as cash machines run dry and the economy begins to buckle.

“The clock cannot be simply set back to where it was Friday night before Tsipras broke off the talks and called the referendum,” Holger Schmieding, an analyst at Berenberg Bank, wrote to clients. “A deal is still possible, but it would require more than just this letter.”
Tsipras Letter

In the letter to European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde, Tsipras resisted their demands on pensions and tax discounts to Greek islands.


He proposed delaying implementation of the zero-deficit clause for the country’s retirement funds and other pension reforms until October instead of July and maintaining a 30 percent discount on sales tax for islands. He also wants to proceed with planned changes to collective-bargaining rules that the creditors oppose.

They have insisted on pension reforms that would bring savings of as much as 1 percent of gross domestic product by 2016 and immediate steps to eliminate early retirement benefits and allowances for lower pensions.

European stocks and bonds rallied on signs of thawing. The Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 2.3 percent at 12:20 p.m. London time. Yields on debt from Italy, Spain and Portugal all fell by more than 10 basis points.

EU Doubts

The creditor institutions still view the July 5 referendum as a potential barrier to agreement, according to a European Union official. Other officials have said Tsipras needs to call for a “yes” vote or cancel the plebiscite altogether to regain euro-area support.

If Greece votes “yes,” it might be able to win approval for a third bailout package in the next few weeks. If there were a deal in principle, it’s possible Greece could get quick disbursement of 3.3 billion euros ($3.7 billion) from central-bank profits on bond purchases -- money that was set aside for the second bailout and then taken off the table on June 30.

Pensioners struggle to get inside a National Bank of Greece branch to collect their pensions in Athens.
 

If voters say “no,” the pressure on its banking system would ratchet up quickly, leaving Greece little choice but to consider printing its own money. That’s because Greek banks would be unable to meet ECB demands for the collateral needed to keep access to emergency liquidity, and the government would run out of cash to pay its bills and pay its workers.