Monday, January 25, 2016

What Are Your Odds of Becoming a Millionaire? (BusinessWeek)

Here's how much race matters in American society.

Want to figure out whether you’ll be a millionaire? A good place to start is the color of your skin.

Bloomberg News asked economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis a question: Would it be possible to calculate the odds of being a millionaire for anyone in the U.S., based on age, education and race? Having already done extensive work in this area, bank researchers William Emmons, Bryan Noeth and Lowell Ricketts agreed to help.

Of these three demographic characteristics, race stuck out as especially dominant in determining a person’s net worth. Its power is illustrated by the stark contrasts it creates in individuals’ outcomes, and the effects are only magnified by race’s immutability.

“It’s a false narrative to say race doesn’t matter in the United States,” said Emmons, a senior economic adviser at the St. Louis Fed. “It demonstrably does in the results we keep coming upon.”

For the analysis, the researchers drew from information on almost 12,500 households in the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 2010 and 2013. The result is a rich data set that illustrates the interplay of different traits as Americans accumulate wealth over a lifetime.

For example, education generally benefits people across all racial and ethnic groups, according to the St. Louis Fed analysis. However, it helps whites and Asians far more than Hispanics and blacks.

According to the sample, a black person’s odds of being a millionaire increase from less than 1 percent if he or she doesn't complete high school to 6.7 percent with a graduate degree. White Americans without a high school diploma start out with slightly better chances—1.7 percent—that rapidly improve with more school: A graduate-level education increases their probability of amassing a net worth greater than $1 million to 37 percent.

The divergences race creates are easily illustrated looking at 40- to 61-year-olds. At middle age, a black graduate-degree holder has just about the same odds of being a millionaire as a white person who only completed high school.

There’s a narrative in the U.S. that “everybody starts out equally,” Emmons said. “The results that we keep coming across suggest that’s kind of hard to imagine.”

It’s not as difficult to see how large wealth gaps can form and persist. For one, discrimination can harm some Americans’ employment prospects. In a well-known study by Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan, researchers responded to help-wanted ads in Boston and Chicago newspapers with fake résumés from white- or black-sounding applicant names. The same résumés bearing monikers such as Emily Walsh and Greg Baker received 50 percent more callbacks for interviews than those with names such as Lakisha Washington and Jamal Jones.

Other studies during the last few decades have also shown that differing levels of access to education, homeownership, loans, inheritance and family assistance play a role.

The large amount of sway that race, age and education hold over a person’s life creates a challenge for those who would use social policy to fix inequalities. For example, young people are generally more vulnerable to swings in the housing cycle, they can have trouble establishing themselves in the labor market and they’re not the best at making financial decisions. But you can’t change a person’s age.

And even time favors Asians and whites far more than it does other racial and ethnic groups. An Asian person younger than 40 years old has a 2.4 percent chance of being a millionaire, odds that soar to 21 percent by the time he’s nearing or in retirement. For Hispanics, those chances barely budge: from less than 1 percent when they’re young to 2.3 percent when they’re 62 or older.

“A lot of what people talk about as responses to inequality of this sort or that sort—they’re probably not going to make much difference given that these underlying factors seem to be so powerful,” Emmons said.

While that may seem cause for despair, the results of this analysis are valuable as a starting point for changes a person can make in behavior to achieve greater financial success, Emmons said. Those include a young person waiting to buy a house until she can actually afford it or evaluating how much postsecondary schooling to take on.

It’s also important to keep in mind that wealth is just one measure of accomplishment.

“We all come out in the birth lottery with different endowments,” Emmons said. “Starting from that point, what can you do to move yourself in a direction you’ll be happy with? That’s what we’re really trying to get at.”





Thursday, January 21, 2016

UNITED’S QUEST TO BE LESS AWFUL (BusinessWeek)


A bungled merger. A corruption scandal. Three CEOs in a year. But hey, at least the snacks are free again.

Early last summer, a team at United Airlines set out to discover what bothered its passengers most. The airline collects 8,000 customer surveys a day, and there was a lot to choose from: Was it extra fees for luggage? The lack of legroom? The sour, thin coffee? Was it being forced to spend 20 hours in a frigid military barracks in Newfoundland (as passengers on a United flight to London did last June)? How about the carrier’s tendency to lose the one bag you really need? (On June 17, 2014, Rory McIlroy tweeted: “Hey @united landed in Dublin yesterday morning from Newark and still no golf clubs... Sort of need them this week.”) Could it be the problems with the reservation system that caused widespread delays in 2012, and again in 2014, or the computer glitch on July 8, 2015, that led the airline to suspend all its flights, all over the world, for two hours? In October, United failed to provide a wheelchair to a passenger with cerebral palsy; he had to crawl off the plane.

Every airline has its horror stories, of course—air travel is full of opportunities for customer disenchantment. But United has proved an industry leader: On all major performance metrics—delays, cancellations, mishandled bags, and bumped passengers—United has, since 2012, been reliably the worst or near worst among its competitors. In 2012, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation, United was responsible for 43 percent of all consumer complaints filed against U.S. airlines. It finished last among North American nondiscount airlines in the 2015 J.D. Power & Associates customer satisfaction survey. Recently the carrier agreed to pay $2.8 million in fines for tarmac delays and the poor treatment of disabled passengers. “United is off-the-charts worse than anything I’ve ever seen,” says Lenny Mendonca, a retired senior partner at McKinsey. Despite having flown more than 3 million miles with the airline, he says, “If I have any other alternative, I will fly someone else.”

It’s been five years since United Airlines and Continental Airlines combined to form what was at the time the world’s largest carrier, and the merger hasn’t gone well. In 2012 and early 2014, when American Airlines Group, Delta Air Lines, and Southwest Airlines reported large, and in some cases, record profits, “the new United” lost money. Earnings calls became an opportunity for then-Chief Executive Officer Jeffery Smisek to apologize. “I know we created some customer disservice because of all the changes we made so quickly, and I apologize for that,” Smisek said in July 2012. “We know we can do better and are taking actions to do just that,” he promised in April 2014.

Bloomberg Businessweek Jan. 18 Cover
For the CEO, however, things got worse. Last September, Smisek resigned along with two other top executives as the Department of Justice investigated whether the airline had tried to improperly influence the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey, which operates the region’s major airports. One month later, Smisek’s successor, Oscar Munoz, suffered a heart attack and went on medical leave. On Jan. 6 he had a heart transplant. Although United promises he’ll return “at the end of the first quarter or the beginning of the second quarter of 2016,” no one can deny that a company that had long endured calls for a shake-up has been well and thoroughly shaken in a way that has both complicated and catalyzed its efforts to reintroduce itself to the world.

“We’ve been out front acknowledging that, ‘Hey, it would have been great to get it together before year five,’ ” says Brett Hart, United’s general counsel and interim CEO. But the airline, he insists, is getting it together: United’s numbers for on-time arrivals, cancellations, and baggage handling in recent months have been the best since the merger. “People see the planes coming in and going out on time,” he says. “Employees’ interactions with customers are different. Our customers’ response to the service is improving. People are saying, ‘You know, this feels like a new day.’ ” The second quarter of 2015 was the airline’s most profitable ever, with $1.3 billion in net income, excluding special items. In the third quarter, it climbed to $1.7 billion.

There have been false dawns before in the long saga of the United and Continental merger—it’s the Zeno’s paradox of mergers, never quite reaching the destination. Despite its record profits, the airline has still struggled to grow—year-over-year, revenue was down 4 percent in the second quarter of 2015 and 2.4 percent in the third. The improvements the airline has made have, in many ways, simply brought it back to where it began. After its “customer experience” team went through all the complaints it compiled last summer, it settled on a straightforward problem: the complicated boarding process United put in place in 2013, which it says it has fixed and plans to update soon. “It’s primed for improvement,” says Vicki Bryan, a transportation analyst at Gimme Credit who’s been particularly critical of United. “But I still see this company very much in limbo.”

Connie Garcia works in customer service for United at Newark Liberty International Airport. Her sister also works there, as does her husband, in facilities management. “It’s sort of a family business for me,” she says. She remembers hearing customers cheering in the terminals on Sept. 8. Curious, she asked around and learned that Smisek was stepping down. Gloria Reid, a flight attendant supervisor, was downstairs in the Newark crew lounge, where she says an impromptu party broke out. “Everybody was very happy,” she says, “extremely happy.”

The events that led to Smisek’s resignation took place a year after he became CEO of the merged airline. In September 2011, he and two of his senior government affairs executives had dinner with David Samson, the Port Authority chairman, at a Manhattan trattoria called Novita. Smisek was pushing Samson to make hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of improvements at United’s Port Authority-operated Newark hub. As reported last spring by Bloomberg, Samson asked for a favor in return: He wanted the new United to restore a discontinued Continental flight from Newark to Columbia, S.C., a short drive from a vacation house Samson and his wife owned.

Over the following months, Samson reiterated his request several times and said he was blocking the airport improvements. United added back the unprofitable flight. The “chairman’s flight,” as Samson liked to call it, was scheduled perfectly for his weekend trips and might have remained another obscure bit of New Jersey horse-trading if not for the Bridgegate scandal, which followed the intentional snarling of traffic in Fort Lee, N.J., by Port Authority officials and aides to New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to punish a local politician. Four days after Samson resigned, in March 2014, for his role in the traffic problems, the chairman’s flight was discontinued.

Fly the Hostile Skies

The U.S. attorney for New Jersey hasn’t brought charges against anyone at the carrier, but the company’s announcement made it clear that Smisek and the two other United executives at the dinner, Nene Foxhall and Mark Anderson, were stepping down because of United’s own internal investigation. Smisek left with a severance package worth $28.6 million. Smisek, Foxhall, and Anderson didn’t respond to repeated requests for comment.

Smisek, an attorney, had been part of the team that turned around the struggling Continental in the 1990s. Three months after being named that airline’s CEO, in January 2010, he interrupted merger talks between United and US Airways to propose Continental as a better partner. “I didn’t want him to marry the ugly girl,” Smisek said of Glenn Tilton, then United’s CEO, a comment for which Smisek apologized to US Airways CEO Doug Parker, who now runs American.

People who worked closely with Smisek describe him as funny and extremely smart but also reserved and, on occasion, tone-deaf. One former Continental colleague remembers Smisek getting up from the table after a meeting with pilots union representatives and immediately pulling on the leather gloves he used to drive his Porsche. Bryan, the Gimme Credit analyst, argues that Smisek’s aloofness paralyzed his management team and made them slow to see problems developing. “You have an elitist culture problem,” she says. “And who is content to work for this kind of culture? Not the kind of person who’s going to step up and say, ‘We need to do it like this.’ No, they’re going to do what Jeff says.”

Many of the merged airline’s front-line employees complained that management, having promised significant savings to Wall Street, focused on cutting costs above all else. There were layoffs, furloughs, and baggage handling and gate agent jobs were outsourced. Former Continental employees say they’d been discouraged from giving out vouchers to placate unhappy customers who had been bumped from their flights, though United says they hadn’t been. Even the new airline’s uniforms seemed the result of cost-cutting. “There were a lot of complaints about the quality of the uniform,” Garcia recalls.

The depth of employee discontent helps explain the merged airline’s poor performance. “Unhappy mechanics do not tend to go the extra mile—or the extra foot—to get the airplane ready to go,” says George Ferguson, a Bloomberg Intelligence airline analyst. Longtime fliers noticed the delays, cancellations, and lost bags—and the short-tempered gate agents and flight attendants. “As individuals, they are really nice people,” says Jared Spool, a Web design consultant who flies 150,000 miles a year on the airline. “But they are in such a horrible situation, constantly trying to deal with customers that are not happy, and they’re completely powerless.”

United CEOs

Some of the problems that have bedeviled the merged airline were inherited. During a brutal three-year bankruptcy that ended in 2006, United slashed salaries, defaulted on its corporate-pension plan, and stopped upgrading facilities and replacing planes, leaving a deeply embittered workforce and one of the oldest fleets in the business. Everything from baggage handling to aircraft reliability suffered. And even today, some labor issues remain beyond the company’s control. The former Continental and United flight attendants, the only work group currently without a preliminary joint contract, are sharply divided over whose work rules to adopt. Until they decide, there’s little United can do.

One thing Smisek and his executive team clearly neglected was ensuring that flights left and landed on time, and building in allowances for the storms and mechanical failures that inevitably occur. Delta, by contrast, set out after its 2008 merger with Northwest Airlines to eliminate flight cancellations unrelated to storms and largely succeeded. The extensive tech problems of the United-Continental merger were also avoidable. Rather than combining the carriers’ reservations systems, websites, and frequent-flier programs over time, the company merged all three on the same day, maximizing disruption and confusion. And in adopting the passenger service system from Continental, the smaller of the two airlines, United had to train a much larger number of people to use different software. In the end, that training proved inadequate. Continental’s scheduling program, when adopted by the merged airline, lost track of pilots, leading to flight cancellations, and assigned flights to pilots who were retired or dead.

An incident on July 14, 2014, crystallized the lack of trust between United employees and management. A flight was about to depart San Francisco for Hong Kong when menacing graffiti—the words “bye bye” and two crude faces—were found scrawled in oil on the fuselage. The flight attendants on board refused to fly unless the plane was given a full additional security sweep—Malaysia Airlines’ Flight 370 had gone missing four months earlier. United’s flight operations, safety, and maintenance teams, along with the plane’s pilots, responded that it had already been thoroughly checked. The standoff ended with the cancellation of the flight, and the flight attendants were fired for insubordination.

Flight Delays

At 3:30 p.m. Central time on Sept. 8, United alerted analysts of a conference call that would begin an hour later. When the analysts dialed in, they heard Henry Meyer III, the company’s brand-new nonexecutive board chairman, announce Smisek’s immediate resignation. His replacement, Munoz, was a board member at United and, before that, Continental, but was otherwise an outsider to the airline industry. He came from CSX, where he was the chief operating officer and president. He’d been seen as a likely pick to run the rail giant—early in his career he’d worked both sides of the cola wars, first at PepsiCo and then at Coca-Cola. When an analyst on the call asked Munoz whether, in light of the sudden change at the top of United, any major decisions would be pushed into the future, he said that putting things off “is not entirely in my vocabulary, certainly.” When another asked when the company would choose a new chief financial officer (a post that remains unfilled), Munoz replied, “It’s my first half-hour.”

Munoz threw himself into the task of reintroducing the airline to its customers. He called Gordon Bethune, the beloved Continental CEO who had turned the airline around in the 1990s, and invited him to Chicago, where the two talked about how to repair the airline’s dismal reputation. United took out ads in newspapers across the country admitting that “we haven’t lived up to your expectations or to the promise and potential” of the 2010 merger. Munoz wrote an open letter to employees promising to “give you the right tools to deliver the service and reliability I know we are capable of.” He described a conversation with a longtime United flight attendant “near tears” who told him, “I’m just so tired of having to tell people I’m sorry.” During the hectic days before Thanksgiving and Christmas, United managers handed out free bottles of water to customers at the airline’s hubs—an updated version of a Bethune tactic.

Munoz talked to employees wherever he flew, often surprising them in their breakrooms. “He listens exceptionally well,” Bethune says, “and he understands the value of an engaged workforce.” On his second day on the job, Munoz walked the floor of the airline’s network operations center in Willis Tower, something people there recalled seeing Smisek do only a handful of times (usually with a camera crew in tow). In a story that quickly made the rounds, Munoz crashed an after-work employee party at a downtown Chicago bar. The approach seemed to be working. “I think the way to talk about it,” says Sara Nelson, a United flight attendant and the international president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, “is the airline was just incredibly sick and Oscar Munoz is like a shot of penicillin. It’s going to get better, but it has to have some time to actually settle in and work.”

In late September, Mendonca, the former McKinsey partner, posted an open letter on the website Medium detailing his frustration with United. Munoz e-mailed him, and the two set up a time to talk on Oct. 15. That day, Mendonca got an e-mail from Munoz’s assistant saying the CEO wasn’t feeling well. As United confirmed the next day, Munoz had been hospitalized with a heart attack. The following Monday, the company announced Hart was the interim CEO.

Soft-spoken and courteously circumspect, Hart sat for an interview just before Thanksgiving in his Willis Tower office, down the hall from the one kept vacant for Munoz. Asked what it was like to be the interim head of a massive company, he smiled: “There’s no real book on it. I looked around.” But, he added, “Oscar was with us long enough for us to have a very good understanding of how he wanted us to think about executing the plan and the various factors that we should take into consideration: how something is going to impact the overall customer experience, how it’s going to impact our employees’ ability to provide great customer service, whether it’s innovative.”

Under Hart, the airline has kept up a steady stream of changes, some big, many small. On Oct. 23 it announced an agreement with the leadership of its mechanics union, then a month later a contract extension with its pilots. Both are contingent on votes by the unions’ members. The company declared a moratorium on outsourcing airport customer service and ramp jobs until 2017. Representatives from the company’s uniform vendors were brought in to hear employees’ complaints. Perhaps more significantly, the carrier brought back free snacks in economy class.

Then there was the coffee, an issue that, while hardly central to its business, symbolized United’s inability to get things right. On Nov. 19 the airline announced it was changing the coffee it serves on its planes and in its lounges from a brand called Fresh Brew to the Italian premium roaster Illy. It was welcome news to customers and to the flight crews used to fielding complaints. It was also a tacit admission that the choice of coffee after the merger, a decision that consumed thousands of man-hours, took nearly a year, and involved everyone from Smisek to the airline’s head chef to the flight attendants, hadn’t worked out.

More fundamentally, United is reexamining the way it boards planes. “There’s a lot of anxiety around the boarding process,” says Mandeep Grewal, the managing director who led last summer’s customer-satisfaction task force. “You repeatedly see lower satisfaction scores.” United’s boarding process—five cordoned-off lines corresponding to their own boarding groups—was instituted in 2013 to bring organization to the expectant throng at the gate. But what Grewal’s team found was that the lines were self-perpetuating. As soon as someone got in the queue, others felt compelled to do the same. Well before boarding time, the lines would trail out across the concourse. Regardless of how long the process took, it felt longer to those going through it.

Working with planners in United’s airport operations department, Grewal ran experiments with flights out of Phoenix and Newark and came up with a system with only two main lanes: one for the group currently boarding and one for the group that was next. To preserve the prerogative of late-arriving priority passengers, a “bypass” lane was added. In late October the boarding process working group took over a gate at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport for four weeks. They boarded single-aisle and twin-aisle planes, flights full of business travelers, and flights to leisure destinations such as Hawaii. According to Michelle Brown, Grewal’s counterpart at airport operations, “We’re clearing the gate area faster now and getting a better flow.” United is refining its boarding algorithm and plans to roll it out later this year.

The routes planes fly are also evolving. Previously, the airline relied heavily on what’s known as linear routing: a plane starting in New York would land, say, in Chicago, then travel to Denver and San Francisco and end its day in Seattle. The method maximizes the hours each aircraft is in the air full of revenue-generating customers, but bad weather at one airport can cause delays and cancellations along numerous routes. In November, United started increasing its use of “out-and-back” routing. It also increased the amount of time budgeted for turning planes around, something it hadn’t done even though, with newer, thinner seats, its planes were carrying more passengers.

“We’re trying to find more of a balance between scheduling an airline for maximum efficiency from an asset perspective as opposed to operations,” says Andy Buchanan, managing director of international network planning. “We’re finding, I think, a better middle ground.”

Customer Dissatisfaction

Recent months have seen marked improvements in United’s performance. Its on-time and missed-connections metrics over the past few months have been the best since the merger. Its rates for mishandled baggage are also sharply down, according to the latest Department of Transportation statistics. While the airline hasn’t closed the gap with industry leader Delta on those measurements, it’s at least pulled itself solidly into the middle of the pack. New planes have steadily been replacing older ones. And fliers are happier: Internal customer satisfaction scores were better in 2015 than in 2014, better in the fourth quarter of 2015 than in the third, and in December were the highest in two years.

On Jan. 7, United released an upbeat announcement, quoting the chief of cardiac surgery at Munoz’s hospital. “Given Mr. Munoz’s excellent physical condition and the rapid pace of his recovery prior to the transplant, we expect a quick recovery and a return to his duties as CEO,” he said. If Munoz has no complications from his heart transplant, he should be in the hospital for 10 days. He’ll be able to drive a car in six weeks. A full recovery can take six months or more, but patients can return to work in two or three months if all goes well.

Of course, as recent years should have taught everyone at United Airlines, it’s best to plan for complications. Whether the company’s board has done so remains to be seen; it has not publicly addressed the delicate but potentially necessary issue of a successor.

The airline’s recent progress has occurred at a time of exceedingly friendly market conditions. Passengers have proved willing for the past few years to pay higher fares, and to submit, if grudgingly, to paying on top of that for checked bags, legroom, and food. Most of United’s profit of late is due to historically cheap fuel—a huge cost for airlines—an advantage that may not last. After five cost-conscious years, it will be hard for United to find any more savings to squeeze out. And its rivals continue to make gains. Delta recently passed United to become the second-largest U.S. airline by traffic. United’s competitor American, now the world’s largest airline, has brought in record profits as it works through the challenges of its own 2013 merger with US Airways.

The true test will be finding a way to grow in less forgiving times. On Jan. 11, United reported that passenger revenue has declined more than expected, partly due to the Paris terrorist attacks. “Look, this is the airline industry. We are accustomed to windows opening and closing and opening again,” says Hart. “So we are not hitting the pause button in any respect.”

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Meet 2016's Worst Economic Performers (BusinessWeek)

Venezuela will contract the most while Taiwan faces a heightened risk of recession

For the world's worst-performing economies, no good will come from New Year's resolutions to do better. For many, 2016 will only bring more disappointment, say economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Oil-rich Venezuela will contract by 3.3 percent this year, the worst forecast of any of the 93 countries in our analysis, followed by junk-rated Brazil, debt-laden Greece and commodities-ravaged Russia. 

Below are the bottom 10: 

The Recession Club

The club no one wants to join has some surprises. Among the nations with a 50-50 chance of two quarters of contraction is Taiwan. Its annual growth rate slow dramatically from 4 percent in the first quarter of 2015 to minus 0.6 percent in the third quarter due to a slowdown in exports to China.

Even with expected growth this year of 1.2 percent, Ukraine, one of last year's worst performers, is still at risk. Economists rate its chance of recession over the next 12 months at  60 percent, the third-highest tied with Argentina.

Latin America

The outlook is dire for bottom-ranked Venezuela: from shortages of basic goods such as medicine to the collapse in the price of oil, which accounts for 95 percent of the country's exports, the nation is looking at a third straight year of negative GDP. The opposition party taking over congress for the first time in 16 years offers brave investors a glimpse of good news.

The situation doesn't get much better elsewhere on the continent. Brazil's 2016 GDP forecast combined with last year's drop puts the country in its deepest recession since at least 1901.  Two major credit rating companies have already downgraded its sovereign debt to "junk" status. 

Next door in Argentina, newly-elected President Mauricio Macri is steering the country in a new direction to dodge economic catastrophe and prevent a drop in GDP this year. Sworn into office last month, he has already begun to implement measures aimed at bolstering growth and reigning in the country's fiscal deficit.

Europe

Greece did not get booted from the euro and managed to recapitalize its struggling banking sector, yet 2016 is still full of challenges. The economy will shrink by 1.8 percent, making the hundreds of billions of dollars Greece still owes that much harder to pay off.  Serious debt relief will still prove to be elusive. Add to that the strain on its borders of migrants fleeing violence in Syria. 

Russia will stay in negative territory after contracting about 3.6 percent in the first nine months of last year, but will also turn the corner on what will likely be its longest recession in over two decades. Sanctions from the U.S. and European Union as well as low oil prices, which account for 40 percent of the government's budget revenues, took their toll.


Finland and Switzerland also made the expected list of 10 worst performers for 2016. The former suffers from its geographic proximity and economic reliance to Russia while the latter is still reeling from a surprise central bank decision to drop its currency cap, which crippled exports and tourism.

Asia

Deflation-pained Japan is forecast to grow 1 percent this year, lagging behind many of its neighbors who made the projected list of 2016's best performers. The country's Cabinet recently approved a record budget for next fiscal year, betting that fiscal stimulus and labor market reform will boost growth.

Current forecasts are the median estimate from each country's latest survey conducted between Oct. and Dec. 2015, bringing the total number of economies surveyed to 93.



Thursday, January 14, 2016

Charging a Smartphone While Driving Isn't as Free as You Think


  • Handsets plugged into car ports cut mileage, boost pollution
  • It also costs 33 times more than using outlets at home

It’s not just using a handheld phone while driving that’s a menace to society. It turns out that charging it in the car has consequences too. 

That’s because a phone drawing electricity from a USB port cuts 0.03 miles from each gallon of gasoline in a tank. Across the fleet of vehicles in the U.S., that would mean about 970,000 tons of extra planet-warming carbon dioxide a year, according to calculations by Jon Bereisa, a retired General Motors Co. engineering executive who studies vehicle power usage. With a race under way to see how many charging ports automakers can cram into a car, the increased pollution is only going to get worse.

“Do I think we’re at peak USB? No,” said Mary Gustanski, vice president of engineering and program management at Delphi Automotive Plc, which makes wiring and USB ports for vehicles. “We’ll get more and more creative to not only allow you to connect with USB but also to connect wireless. Consumers want their car to be just like their home.”

It’s not just an environmental issue, either. The proliferation of consumer devices, the growth of dashboard touch screens and other technology, and the shrinking size of engines to meet fuel-economy mandates mean the 12-volt automobile electrical system is just about tapped out. Some automakers are already turning to supplemental 48-volt systems in future models.

Port Proliferation

The number of vehicles sold in the U.S. with USB charge ports rose to about 14.6 million last year from about 3.3 million in 2005, the first year they were available, and is projected to climb to 16.7 million by 2022, according to a forecast from the consulting firm IHS. Global sales of vehicles with USB ports will increase to 85 million in 2022 from about 49 million last year, IHS said.

That estimate doesn’t capture how many ports are in a particular vehicle. For example, the new Chrysler Pacifica minivan, which goes on sale later this year, will have nine USB charging points, the most of any automobile, said Bruce Velisek, director of Chrysler brand product marketing. The model it replaces has four charging points, he said.

To make his calculation, Bereisa assumed that a typical smartphone connected to WiFi or the Internet needs about 4.8 watts of energy to charge in a car. (Delphi estimates that some less-efficient models draw twice that amount.) For a vehicle getting about 30 miles per gallon, that’s a 0.03 mpg loss, he said. Spread out across about 3 trillion road miles motorists drive each year in the U.S. -- assuming an average speed of 30 mph -- the estimated extra usage is 100 million gallons of gasoline, or about $200 million in costs, said Bereisa, the chief executive officer of Auto Electrification LLC in Sunrise Beach, Missouri.

Home Charging

The estimated extra CO2 created by plugging in one phone in every car in the U.S. would be about the same as that produced by 185,257 passenger vehicles in one year, according to an Environmental Protection Agency website that converts greenhouse gas into real-world equivalents. Put another way, that’s the pollution created by burning 945 million pounds of coal.

By far, the cheapest way to charge a smartphone is at home, Bereisa said. With gasoline at $2 a gallon, it costs about 2 cents an hour to charge a phone in a car compared with about 0.06 cent at home, or 33 times less. Gasoline would have to fall to 6 cents a gallon to compete with home electricity, he said. It would also produce about half the carbon dioxide.

“That’s why modern electricity power plants are not driven by gasoline engine generators,” said Bereisa, who worked on the EV-1 and Volt electric-vehicle programs and fuel-cell models during his 35 years at GM. “We go through life without realizing how important energy is to everything we do, and the consequences of our energy consumption. We grow up entitled to just plug it in or flip the switch or push start -- with no idea of what’s behind it all.”

Monday, January 11, 2016

Meet the Two Brothers Making Millions Off the Refugee Crisis in Scandinavia (BusinessWeek)

Hero Norway’s for-profit model offers lodging for asylum seekers.

It’s a scene that could possibly warm even the two-sizes-too-small heart of the Grinch. Here in a little village in Norway, as dusky midday light filters in through the forest outside a classroom, a half-dozen Afghan teenagers hunch over a long wooden table, assiduously scissoring colored sheets of construction paper. These are 15- to 18-year-old boys who’ve endured miseries no child deserves—gunfire, explosions, the killing of a parent by Islamic State—and they’ve traveled here from their homeland on foot and in suffocatingly crowded vans. They sneaked through the woods on the Turkey-Bulgaria border, and they’ve been chased and bitten by police dogs and beaten by their smugglers. Now they’re celebrating Christmas and inscribing cards with some of the very first Norwegian words they’ve learned: God Jul. Merry Christmas.

Are they happy to be here?

“It is calm and peaceful,” says Bilal, 15, in Pashto.

“It is nice,” says Ahmad, also 15, “but why isn’t there a cricket pitch?”

Their middle-aged teachers—a Syrian and an Eritrean, both onetime refugees themselves—hover over them, benevolent, smiling, as a commuter train rattles in the distance. This, arguably, is the Scandinavia that the self-proclaimed socialist presidential candidate Bernie Sanders was referring to in October when he suggested that Americans “should look to countries like Denmark, like Sweden and Norway, and learn from what they have accomplished”—particularly when it comes to government programs that assist those in need.

Except there’s this other guy in the room, standing off to the side, almost invisible as he handles incoming e-mail on his smartphone. Kristian Adolfsen, 55, wears a V-neck sweater, a striped button-down, and glasses. This is his first visit to this refugee center in Hvalstad, but he owns the operation with his brother, Roger, 51, and they run 90 such centers in Norway and 10 more in Sweden. Refugees represent a huge opportunity for them; the Adolfsens’ Oslo-based company, Hero Norway, is the leader of a burgeoning Scandinavian industry that charges the Norwegian and Swedish governments a fixed fee—$31 to $75 per person per night in Norway—to house and feed refugees.

In Norway, Hero operates several different kinds of refugee lodging, among them short-stay dormitories where asylum seekers sleep a few nights, waiting to be screened by police after crossing the border; a second phalanx of facilities where refugees wait a couple of weeks to be interviewed by immigration officials, taking their meals in a cafeteria; and longer-term camps where they live more independently, in detached houses, cooking their own meals, as they wait, often for years, to be settled in Norway with protected refugee status.

For 2015, Hero Norway expects revenue of $63 million, with profits of 3.5 percent. In the rest of Europe, where asylum seekers typically are cared for by nongovernmental organizations such as the Red Cross, only one for-profit is larger than the Adolfsens’ operation, ORS Services, a Swiss company that in 2014 generated $99 million in profit caring for refugees in Switzerland, Austria, and Germany. (ORS won’t disclose its 2015 profits.)

The Adolfsens have succeeded in part because they have a background in hospitality. In the three decades since they founded Adolfsen Group, Kristian and Roger have built an $800 million-a-year network of businesses that includes preschools and nursing homes, as well as hotels, apartment buildings, cruise lines, and ski resorts. The two entered the refugee sector in May 2014, when they paid a Danish company, ISS Facility Services, $22 million for Hero Norway, a 27-year-old company that ran 32 refugee centers.

At first the Adolfsens set their sights on Sweden. Almost immediately, though, refugee arrivals in Norway exploded, and they’ve kept arriving since. A country of 5 million people—a relatively sleepy, snow-clad, 1,600-mile-long, lutefish-eating kingdom that had never seen more than 17,000 refugees in a single year—received more than 31,500 asylum seekers in 2015 as Syria continued to fall apart and wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Eritrea drove refugees to Europe. The Norwegian Directorate of Immigration (UDI) can’t cope with the influx, so it’s turning to entrepreneurs, desperately, lest more refugees sleep in the streets. “UDI calls for capitalists,” blared a recent headline in Oslo’s Aftenposten newspaper.

For-profits now care for about 90 percent of Norway’s refugees. A gold rush has commenced, and it’s also a bit of a circus. Just outside Oslo, a savvy entrepreneur named Ola Moe recently rented a vacant hospital for $10,000 a month, did minimal upgrades, and began charging the government $460,000 a month to house and feed 200 refugees. At a refugee center in Southern Norway, 50 resident asylum seekers went on a two-hour march in November to protest the poor food, prompting one politician, an Iranian Norwegian named Mazyar Keshvari, to proclaim, “These ungrateful people should immediately leave the country.”

Amid such controversy, the Adolfsens appear like poised professionals. In press photographs, they flash can-do smiles as they sit before gleaming conference tables in airy office towers. One Oslo paper, Dagens Naeringsliv, has called them “Norway’s least known billionaires.” Yet concerns remain. In their monetization of the refugee crisis, will the Adolfsens provide superior, more efficient havens, or will they cut corners and skimp on services to improve profits? And does their bottom-line approach threaten a depth of caring that transcends hard cash?

Kristian and Roger grew up in Northern Norway, a sparsely peopled region imbued with a provincial, gloomy, Southern Rock vibe. Moonshine is popular there, along with fishing and hunting, and the Adolfsen brothers pride themselves on speaking a northern dialect, which Kristian says “is filled with swear words—not bad ones, but you know, stuff like ‘devil hell.’ ” Their hometown of Andenes, population 3,500, situated on Andoya Island, is so windy there are almost no trees. Their father, Kolbjorn, an engineer, worked days at the Andoya Space Center, launching rockets to study the northern lights. In the evening, he ran a TV sales and repair shop. Eventually he built a hotel. “A lot of people in Norway have cabins,” says Kristian. “Our second home was the TV shop. That’s where we saw our father.”

When Kristian was 5, he began selling the local newspaper, the Andoya Avis. At 7, he got involved with the production of a Northern Norway ocean delicacy, cod tongue. It was his job each winter afternoon to jab hundreds of cod down onto a metal spike, one by one, before lopping off the fish’s tongues with a knife. “As soon as the last bell rang at school,” he says, “I began sprinting. You had to be the first on the pier. There were only so many fish.” He cut quickly, running behind his wheelbarrow in the 10F to 15F air to fetch loads of fish. After three hours, he’d spend three more selling cod tongues door to door. “But that wasn’t so bad,” he says, “because then you could wear gloves.”

Roger stayed out of the cod tongue industry (by the time he came of age, his mother was weary of living in a household smelling of fish), but he soon followed his brother into competitive running and cross-country skiing. The brothers served as delivery boys, Kristian carrying groceries on his sled and Roger baked goods. Both worked as salesmen in the TV shop, and during the late 1970s—as Norwegian conservative Kare Willoch rose to power, eventually becoming prime minister in 1981—the brothers grew infectiously excited over his staunch opposition to the social democratic state that took root in Norway after World War II.

Kristian and Roger ran for the Andenes City Council as teenagers. Both won seats and fought for the privatization of road services and garbage pickup in Andenes. “My first speech was about privatizing the road grading,” Kristian says. “I spent hours writing and correcting many times what I would say. I tried to memorize every word.”

When the Adolfsens made their first major business move in 1991, purchasing the 44-room Andrikken Hotel in Andenes, the gesture had an almost holy resonance: They were buying the very hotel their father had built. In 1981, Kolbjorn had lost the business to bankruptcy. But he kept its giant sign in his basement. It depicted a long-necked duck flying into the midnight sun. The brothers rehung it—then staffed the hotel with old friends from Andenes, establishing a tone. “We have a coast culture in our companies,” Kristian says. “We are professional but informal, and we base everything on trust. When you grow up in a small place, you can’t do anything wrong. You get a bad reputation.”

Over the next decade, the Adolfsens built Norlandia Hotel Group, which now manages about 30 establishments, many of them Best Westerns, throughout Norway and Sweden. As the Norwegian government started allowing private companies to make money on social welfare work, they ventured into nursing homes, then preschools. “We are like sportsmen,” Kristian says calmly and clinically, explaining his and Roger’s drive. “We set goals, and then we reach our goals, and then we have to set new goals. It is not about the money. It is about the excitement.”

Europe’s refugee crisis has been bubbling since the Arab Spring of 2011. When it boiled over last summer, many Norwegians traveled to Lesbos, Greece, on the edge of the Aegean Sea to help refugees land their boats in Europe. They set up tents, served food, and offered trauma counseling. Back in Norway, groups such as Refugees Welcome to Norway supplied the newcomers with clothes and toys as other volunteers taught them to knit. The Adolfsens, meanwhile, enlisted an aide to cast about Norway’s hinterlands for abandoned or little-used properties: defunct boarding schools, onetime rehab centers, hospitals, mountain hotels that go dead in autumn—any and all structures where refugees could be housed temporarily or permanently at a profit. As Roger tended to other aspects of the Adolfsens’ business, Kristian expanded the refugee services. “We see it as a niche in the health and care industry,” he says.

On Norway’s political left, the Adolfsens are regarded as distasteful and greedy, especially by Linn Herning, deputy director of Norway’s Campaign for the Welfare State and the author of a 2015 book, Velferdsprofitorene (The Welfare Profiteers), which traces the gradual expansion since the late 1990s of entrepreneurs in Norway’s preschools and nursing homes. The cover features detailed, anatomically correct drawings of creepy insects—parasites—and Herning devotes several pages to the Adolfsens, who, she says, are “the biggest players, the only welfare profiteers in every sector.” In early December, she helped Norway’s Socialist Party and Social Democratic Party call in Parliament for a study looking into the feasibility of banning profiteering in refugee care.

Still, Herning could point to only one specific example of the Adolfsens’ supposed treachery. In the small Norwegian city of Moss, an hour south of Oslo, Orkerod, a respected, publicly owned, 88-bed nursing home for dementia patients, went into tumult after the Adolfsens’ Norlandia Care Group began managing it in 2014. “The focus on specialized dementia care disappeared,” says Lorentz Nitter, the clinic’s lead doctor until he quit in June. “Such care is very expensive,” about $125,000 annually per person, he says, “and Norlandia didn’t want to pay for it.” When highly paid nurses trained in dementia work quit, Norlandia replaced them with cheaper nonspecialists. “They began treating all patients the same way,” Nitter says, and this was dangerous. About 30 percent of all dementia patients are “aggressive,” he says, “and they walk around causing many problems.”

In Orkerod’s first 12 months under Norlandia’s guidance, 19 nurses quit. In a recent op-ed in Moss Avis, Nitter joined two other Orkerod doctors in complaining that the clinic’s excellence, built over its first 13 years of operation, had been “torn down in a single year.”

Kristian denies that the quality of the service at Orkerod declined and argues that departed staffers were disgruntled simply because Norlandia shook them from long-standing work habits. “These were people who’d been there for many years,” he says. “They were used to doing things their way, and then we made changes. It’s a lot more demanding to work for a private company because we focus on providing better quality at lower prices.”

To read the full article, go to: 

Friday, January 8, 2016

The World Economy's Winners and Losers in 2015 (BusinessWeek)

The Celtic Tiger rises, China holds up, Brazil and Russian sink deeper

When the final numbers are tallied, 2015 will probably count as another disappointing year for global growth.

The muted performance came even as central banks continued to pump in liquidity, oil prices plunged again and inflation was moderate.

It was also a year of divergent performers. While tumbling commodity prices took the shine off big emerging markets Russia and Brazil, other emerging economies like India and Vietnam surprised on the upside. In the developed world, robust U.S. jobs growth prompted the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy for the first time since 2006, while the gloom around neighboring Canada deepened.

With the year drawing to a close, here's a look at some of the winners and losers:

Mixed performance:

In advanced economies, smaller European nations were among the best performers. Ireland's economy grew by 7 percent in the third quarter--faster than China--and well ahead of the euro area's 1.6 percent growth in the same period.

By contrast, the picture was more subdued in Finland. The northernmost euro member, which was among the most vocal critics of Greece during its crisis bailout negotiations, is suffering as key industries like paper making and consumer electronics struggle. Weak export demand from Russia is also hurting.

Honorary mention:

Japan gets a special mention for the recession that never was. A data revision meant that GDP expanded in the third quarter rather than contracting as previously thought, meaning  the world's third largest economy avoided a second recession in three years. Some economists say the performance shows Japan's economy is on an overall improving track, even if significant challenges remain.

Employment:

Away from the GDP numbers, employment data around the world paints a mixed picture.

The lowest jobless rates can be found in nations such as Japan and Switzerland, or Thailand and Singapore, but Western Europe remains stricken by high levels of joblessness. Double digit unemployment in places like Greece and Spain underscore the challenges ahead. 

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Why GM + Lyft Is About the End of Car Brands

Why GM + Lyft Is About the End of Car Brands
Who made the last airplane you flew on? Who manufactured the last bus or train you took? Unless you’re unusually curious or observant, it’s not only that you don’t remember — I bet it never occurred to you to ask.
But more likely than not, you do remember the brand(s) of the company(ies) thatoperated those vehicles and/or sold you your tickets. And that’s why GM invested in Lyft.

Why self-driving cars + ride sharing = the end of car manufacturers’ brands

 
Self-driving cars will push down prices for ride-sharing to insanely low levels. My car was stolen last year, and already, doing the math that everyone’s now doing, I’m saving money (and hassle) by not replacing it and taking Uber and Lyft everywhere (and Zipcar for longer drives). Given that today drivers take home 70% to 80% of UberX fares, the advent of self-driving cars could reduce the average ride-sharing fare to well below 50% of current rates.
When that happens, ride/car-sharing becomes more the norm, at least in urban areas. (Will buying a car one day be like buying a tractor?) Which means traveling in a car becomes more like traveling in an airplane or a bus — an on-demand experience that separates riders from manufacturers and their brands. In that world, the brands that matter most are the ones that sell you your tickets, operate the cars, and tell you how soon they will arrive.

GM’s Lyft investment is a play against intermediation

 
In the early days of the Internet, there was a lot of talk about disintermediation as the force of disruption. Manufacturers, for example, would be able to sell their goods directly, without going through expensive intermediaries. That has certainly played out (Warby Parker, Apple, etc.), but the more interesting phenomenon — and what’s happening now in the car industry — is intermediation.
The introduction of intermediaries into a supply chain usually removes value, which is why new intermediaries are rare. But when superior ways of buying and consumption emerge, a new intermediary can jump in and add value. That’s what Netflix did, and it now poses an existential threat to traditional programming networks.
In that context, GM investing in Lyft is a little like when those traditional networks invested in Hulu. (Or, as Jeff Fodor aptly points out, like when record labels invested in Spotify.) The result, at least initially, was that Hulu was constrained by its owners’ fear of cannibalization. It’ll be interesting to see if GM’s ownership similarly holds Lyft back, or if, conversely, Lyft can keep the GM brand relevant in a world in which, more and more, people won’t give much thought to who makes cars.