The making and selling of cars is game theory on a grand scale—an ongoing exercise in executive brinkmanship based on two questions: What kinds of vehicles are all the other companies making and what kind should we make next? The answers aren't trivial. Launching a new car requires the kind of investment that makes starting, say, a social network seem like a cheap date.
This week, in frigid Detroit, is the annual unveiling of the car companies' biggest bets. They'll reveal their strategies in sleek, shiny new vehicles that the world—and their competitors—have never seen. Some will change a company’s fortunes for decades. Others hint at where the entire industry is heading. Not every car on display is equally portentous: The duds, and there are many, never even make it to the assembly line. When the official press "events" begin tomorrow, these are the five vehicles that will matter most.
Acura NSX
Acura, Honda’s blue-chip brand, makes vehicles that are arguably just as luxurious and refined as BMW's. Drivers, however, remain unconvinced. Acuras sell for about 20 percent less than BMWs do, and in spite of the price premium (or perhaps because of it), BMW still outsold Acura two-to-one in the U.S. last year. Enter the NSX, a space pod of technology and design, and what the the auto industry calls a “halo car.” The glow that emanates from its carbon fiber and computer-tuned engine refracts on all the other Acura models and helps dealers sell more of them for more money. At least, that’s the theory. We won’t know how that strategy pans out for Acura. The NSX won't be available until the late fall (rumored price: $100,000), and any effect it has may take longer to manifest. Either way, it won't stop auto writers from telling you a lot about the NSX this week.
Source: Toyota
Toyota Tacoma
For years, the Big Three didn’t make small pickups, in part because they didn’t want to cannibalize sales of their larger trucks. So Toyota, with its Tacoma, had the segment to itself until just a few months ago, when General Motors rolled out its Chevrolet Colorado and the GMC Canyon, all-new, modestly sized pickups. Thanks to some glowing reviews, combined monthly sales of those trucks hit 5,600 in December, almost 40 percent the sales volume of the Tacoma that month. If Toyota wants to keep its status as the only non-U.S. company making a dent in the truck business, it needs the new Tacoma to impress. That may not be as tall an order as it sounds. The Tacoma hasn't had a refresh since 2004, and the new styling is much less car-like, much more aggressive.
Source: VolkswagenSource: Volkswagen
Volkswagen SUV
Unless one is driving a Golf, Volkswagen drivers aren’t feeling much fahrvergnügenthese days—at least not in America. The brand’s U.S. sales dropped 7 percent in 2013, then fell another 8 percent last year. Volkswagen’s sedans and compacts are still fairly impressive; they just aren’t what Americans want these days. Small SUVs have been the fastest-growing segment in the U.S. of late and Volkswagen’s only offerings in the space were relatively expensive (see: Touareg) or not very well-liked (see: Tiguan). The company desperately needs to check this box to turn its fortunes around in America, and the concept car it unveils this week is intended to prime American demand. Unfortunately for Volkswagen, the big reveal would have been far more useful two years ago.
Mercedes GLE Coupe
In its quest to remain the best-selling luxury carmaker, Mercedes is giving its designers and engineers free rein. How else to explain its newest creation, a burly vehicle with the linebacker looks of an SUV and the graceful sloping roof of a performance coupe? It doesn't have the cargo space for a Costco run and won’t drive nearly as well as a low-slung sedan, but it looks kind of cool—at least some people must think so. BMW has been selling a similar model, the $60,800 X6, since 2008. Last year, U.S. buyers drove off in 4,200 of them, not a lot overall but significant for such a niche vehicle.
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/BloombergThe Ford GT is unveiled during the 2015 North American International Auto Show in on Jan. 12.
Ford GT
If you can’t buy them, beat them. That was the mantra that created Ford’s original touring race car—the GT40—in 1964. Spurned in a bid to acquire Ferrari, the company made a machine that could best Europe’s finest on the European race circuit. The strategy didn’t make much economic sense, but with four straight victories in the 24 Hours of Le Mans race, it sent a clear message. Ford is back at it with another supercar that will make its new Mustang look like the family’s pudgy uncle. There certainly won’t be many of them and Ford won’t make much, if any, money from them. So why is Ford rolling out a new race car? To show that it can. The company hasn't really taken a risk since before the recession—a conservative strategy that by all accounts paid off—and if any American car company has the right to take a flier these days, it's Ford.
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