Friday, January 8, 2016

The World Economy's Winners and Losers in 2015 (BusinessWeek)

The Celtic Tiger rises, China holds up, Brazil and Russian sink deeper

When the final numbers are tallied, 2015 will probably count as another disappointing year for global growth.

The muted performance came even as central banks continued to pump in liquidity, oil prices plunged again and inflation was moderate.

It was also a year of divergent performers. While tumbling commodity prices took the shine off big emerging markets Russia and Brazil, other emerging economies like India and Vietnam surprised on the upside. In the developed world, robust U.S. jobs growth prompted the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy for the first time since 2006, while the gloom around neighboring Canada deepened.

With the year drawing to a close, here's a look at some of the winners and losers:

Mixed performance:

In advanced economies, smaller European nations were among the best performers. Ireland's economy grew by 7 percent in the third quarter--faster than China--and well ahead of the euro area's 1.6 percent growth in the same period.

By contrast, the picture was more subdued in Finland. The northernmost euro member, which was among the most vocal critics of Greece during its crisis bailout negotiations, is suffering as key industries like paper making and consumer electronics struggle. Weak export demand from Russia is also hurting.

Honorary mention:

Japan gets a special mention for the recession that never was. A data revision meant that GDP expanded in the third quarter rather than contracting as previously thought, meaning  the world's third largest economy avoided a second recession in three years. Some economists say the performance shows Japan's economy is on an overall improving track, even if significant challenges remain.

Employment:

Away from the GDP numbers, employment data around the world paints a mixed picture.

The lowest jobless rates can be found in nations such as Japan and Switzerland, or Thailand and Singapore, but Western Europe remains stricken by high levels of joblessness. Double digit unemployment in places like Greece and Spain underscore the challenges ahead. 

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